Thursday 24 May 2012

UpdateStops.ex4 -

Update Stops is a simple and easy to use trade manager EA ( Expert Advisor).
You must place it in your metatrader/experts folder and ensure that you have Expert Advisors function enabled.

Then place the EA onto the chart that you wish to use it on ( exactly as you inset and indicator).
Open the EA and set the parameters you wish to utilise. Stop Loss, Take Profit 1 & 2 in point value and % of profit to take at specified levels, Trailing Stop in points.

Note: Asure that your levels correspond to the currency pairs number of decimal places.. IE if your platform is 5 decimal places on a pair a stop loss of 50 points will need to be entered as 500. 

UpdateStops.ex4 - 4shared.com - online file sharing and storage - download - Richard Lowe




Wednesday 23 May 2012

Kiwi

Weekly Kiwi presents with a large SHS formation with a measured move somewhere in the region of 0.6000. The current 1:1 pattern would complete near the 0.7050 zone.

Obviously being weekly charts we need to wait for the weekly close and in the case of the SHS a retest and failure to qualify as a strong pattern that can be traded.


Large Bearish structures in this EurUsd

Whilst not your perfect textbook patterns there are a few to keep your eye on.

Firstly the immediate SHS currently playing out has its target slightly below the previous low at 1.2623.  Charts continue to look very bearish indeed with Papademos giving the Bears a hand after his comments overnight adding real concern to the idea of a Greek Euro exit. Whether his comments where directed at the Greek public to vote unanimously to form a solid government or at the EU/Germany to loosen the noose or both remains to be seen.

However, the comments have indeed forced the market to take a closer look at the technicals for a "If Greece does leave the Eur, where will it go?"

And there they are - the two weekly patterns that Bulls where fearing..

1 - SHS - Current neckline presently at the 1.2570 zone with measured move coming in around 1.0450.

2 - One to One or AB=CD - Copying the down leg from Nov. 2009 A to June 2010 B - a move of 3264 points which would target 1.1675 from the May 2011 high at 1.4939 being point C.


Sunday 20 May 2012

keep an eye on the Aud

Interesting group of charts. Kiwi is still a fraction ahead of the rest.. I will be watching the Aud with the AB=CD or 1 to 1 pattern completion coming in at around 0.9750 for clues of a reversal.




XAU/USD - Spot Gold

Important weekly hammer in Gold and a failure to close under the pivotal 1566 area suggest the immediate low is in. Asian Central Banks were reportedly buying in the 1525 region above the well established channel support at 1505.

Immediate upside target lies at 1610.60 - the Weekly 50 Marabuzo Line with the Daily 55 LWMA above at 1632.


CLM2 - WTI Crude

Again same story as the S+P and Nazzy. 90.39 is the Daily H&S Target with Fibs providing support levels under there to the major support line coming through at 85.00.




NQM2 - E-mini Nasdaq

Exact same conclusion as the ES..

Daily H&S Target at 2449 with previous resistance zone now support 2427.75.


ESM2 - S+P Daily

Looking at the Daily and Weekly charts the situation looks abysmal for the Bulls at this point. Having said that we are approaching an important area of support around the 1284 zone.

1284 - Daily H&S Target
1283.25 - 50 Fib Weekly from the 1147.25 low Nov. 2011
1282.25 Weekly 100 LWMA
1282 - Weekly Resistance now support
Obviously a break below this level would have the market looking at Fibs for the next downside targets.

 Resistance wise only a break and close back above the Weekly 50% Marabuzo Line at 1318.125 would argue that this current sell off has been merely a 4th wave retracement in an ongoing 5 wave structure.


















Friday 18 May 2012

Quick comment from the sidelines..

Whilst I have been busy on other projects I have still been watching these markets with interest albeit from more of a longer term perspective. Weekly patterns identified  in March seem to be playing out quite nicely but have almost reached projected targets.

On the Macro front last nights Philly Fed caught most by surprise. Whilst I believe its only a minor bump in the road on the ongoing US economic recovery it did give the QEIII bunch something to cheer about.  Obviously with a re-election coming up.. a strong stock market and improving economic sentiment will be in the cross-hairs of the current administration and Fed, whether or not they will need to pullout QEIII or not remains to be seen. This writer believes that QEIII will only be enacted should the European scenario spin out of control toward destruction.

And so it is we go back to Europe.... After so long now I am really becoming tired of this situation.. Will Greece leave the Eur? No. Will the Market have another crack at Spain? Yup. Will Germany finally come around to the fact that they are involved in this upto their teeth and have no choice but to open the cheque book? Yup. Lets face it..the Euromob have become masters at can kicking and have it down pat. Austerity measures are of course needed..but in the case of Greece as was the case in Argentina decades earlier...How about we just get rid of the rorts and excesses first.. stabilise the situation and rather than slash and burn.. streamline and find efficiencies. Ohh and introduce the idea of equitable taxation as a common good from the kindergarten level..

From a trading perspective when Fundamentals and Technicals disagree, go with the Technicals.

For those that are watching EurJpy.

Daily Head and Shoulder pattern continues to play out with a target zone in between 98.80/99.50 with the 88.6 Fib at 98.66. Whilst not an Elliotician it does look suspiciously like we are in the 3rd wave which might play well into the idea of a bounce up in 4 then a final run lower toward the previous low at 97.00.