Eur/Aud

Short setup exists on a break of the 300 sma  hrly. Initial stop at 1.4900. first target 169 ema  hrly

gold swinging back to short.. watch the hrly close

Silver  was  warning  that  the  gold  move  was fake. Hourly managed to close right above the ma thus longs still remain in favour although indicators are  a  little on the dubious side.. prefer to stand aside and watch silver which still remains trapped under the hourly ma.

Gbp/Cad

Looking to sell on break and close below the hrly 200ema add on break n close under the hrly 200 lwma. tgts will be fibs for now. Stop 1.5370 initially. Short at 1.5319 with stop lowered to entry. Hrly 200 lwma has proved a little tough to break but indicators  are bearish on this pair. Under the hourly 100 ema  we will see  a  better strength downward push.

Chf/Jpy

Short 86.73 , stop 87.10... looking  for 86.45 initially... Well  I got this wrong... I will maintain stop at 87.10 for the moment.

Nzd/Chf and Nzd/Jpy

Nzd/Chf - Short trade fired on break of hrly 200 sma . Sell 0.7512 stop 0.7535 . STOP TO ENTRY NZD/CHF

Also Nzd/Jpy short worth a look above 65.10 tgt  should be trend  support at 63.83 stop  above todays highs. NOT WORKING OUT AS I THOUGHT.....either close at break even or reduce the position size by 1/2 at B/E and hold over the weekend.

Cad/Chf

We have broken the channel  and 4 hrly 400ema. Sell 1.0400 stop 1.0460.  supports  to  beat  are  1.0360  then  1.0330. Below there should see downward momentum pick up.
 
Support at 1.0330 held to produce a bounce .Move stop to entry and watch the reaction at the hourly 200 ema.

Currency Manipulation - More a question of who hasn´t

US - the last few years as a result of complete neglect has enjoyed the benefits of a lower Dollar.... Should the Buck start to really rally hard dont be surprised to see the Fed go back to lower rates for an even further extended period and for data to turn back to the negative side.

China - Well not really much to say there.... Yep we are, nope we aint going to stop, and guess what? You can´t do a dam thing about it either....

Japan - Ha ha, looks like yesterdays Nikkei piece has caught the Japanese with their hands in the cookie jar so to speak..MOF has been getting the Japanese Post Bank to do its bidding.

Germany/France - Politicising the whole Greek debacle undermining the Euro.


UK - trying on the same strategy that the US has been enjoying.... Do nothing !

Russia/Korea/Brasil - Direct Intervention - hasn´t worked to well.....next will be lowering rates....

Swiss - well best not talk about that......

It seems to me that the only countries that are not trying to play some sort of games with their respective currencies are the ones that have a solid internal economy and have long term export agreements already in place such as commodities.....Australia, Canada... Mind you I think that should those currencies  head back to par with the Dollar you will start to hear them squeel as well...

The Greek saga isnt quite over yet

Ok OK, so the europeans finally got around to agreeing on a backstop for Greece but I think the damage has well and truely been done. Firstly, the backstop will only be used if Greece really needs it, that is to say that only  if Greece is unable (dosn´t count not paying up for funds) to raise funds in the capital markets will the package be implemented. Secondly, the fact that the IMF is involved at all really does paint the whole Euro monetary union in a dark light.

With the backstop in place and Mr. Trichet revoking his very,very bad jibe, we have seen the more riskier Euro hedge trades being reversed as you could see in the likes of Eur/Aud, Eur/Cad, Eur/Gbp etc...One trade that may be of interest is Eur/Chf carry trade , whereby investors will borrow CHF and buy Greek t-bills and bonds openning up a fairly hefty 5+% carry. It will be interesting to see the  next Greek bond auction.

Technically speaking I think that we will see a retracement in the majors vs the Dollar today with short Eur and Chf coverring , the smaller dollars will be very much influenced by their Yen and Euro crosses so probably good to stay away from at the moment. As far a Yen crosses go the bid tone is still present although I will be watching the stocks and the US 10 year notes ZNM0 for signs that a reversal may unfold.

One trade worth a look is the Cad/Chf short trade on a break and close under the channel support and
the 4 hrly 200 lwma. We now have a triple top in place at 1.0516 with 1.0336 the next level of support under the ma. Initial stop would be at 1.0460 or with a close back above the ma.


More musings a little later.

Really not much to add

Technically, charts are bullish for the Dollar. Yen crosses remain in a broad sideways pattern , although as the month draws to a close, end of fin year yen sales look to be drying up hence mild upside pressure is  once  again being seen.

Trading wise, good opportunities have been few and far between during the New York session with only quick entries to be had for 20-70 pips. Selling aud,gbp and to a lesser extent eur rallys is the favoured trade as is buying usdchf on dips.

Gold Head and Shoulder break still remains valid with target at 1048. Silver remains in a downtrend but we need to see a break and close under the 4 hrly 220 sma  for downward momentum is pickup targetting the 61.8 fib at 15.80.

Crude remains in a wide 78.50/83.50 band with trade opportunities on the break of the hourly 300 ema.

Dow......what can I say...the thing just keeps  grinding higher. I guess when u have a Fed that has pumped in 2 trillion dollars  into the market it has to go somewhere... Its day will come sure enough, it just doesnt look like that will happen  anytime soon.

Update - Monday 22nd March 2010

Risk aversion continues with the situation in Europe still completely divided, Chinese comments also not helping things. Technically daily charts have now turned back in favour of USD long positions with both hourly and 4 hourly looking for a retrace of last weeks moves. Over all looking for a test of Eur, Gbp, Aud lows  before a  bounce into fib resistance where shorts should be set for a test and break of this years lows versus the Buck.

Yen crosses technically also look bearish on the daily charts but would expect to see a retrace before a retest of the years lows.

Pretty much the same story in Gold, Silver and Crude. Only pattern that does look interesting is a possible Head and Shoulder pattern on the spot Gold - Xau/Usd chart... Currently we are sitting right at the neckline. A break would target 1048.30 very close to the previous weekly downtrend res , now turned support. Really need a break and close under the 4 hourly 500 ema which then should target the daily 200 lwma.

Dow futures are now trading June - YMM0 for the June mini dow futures. Currently we remain in a wide daily uptrend channel although price has now broken the 4 hrly uptrend support at 10637 with indicators -ve. Hourly charts are neutral  with sideways chop expected very similar to last mondays price action. Only on a break of hourly 300ema would the downside pressure increase.

At current levels there is nothing that really looks worth doing. I will continue to watch price looking to take counter trend trades and then look to set trades in the direction of the daily charts.

Risk off

Correlation is back as risk aversion trades come back into play. Usd and Yen rallying as a result with Gold Silver Aud and Cad falling hard. Looking to sell Aud/Jpy on break and close under hrly 300 lwma, stop above  days highs to start with 82.21 then 81.26 as targets.
 Remember as this is an ma trade wait for the hourly close.
Sold some Aud/Jpy 82.75..although i didnt get the close both gbp and eurjpy looking  to  go lower so i have  sold 1/2 position to begin and will add or close on next hourly close. stop 83.25. tgts as above

Update - Friday 19th March , 2010.

Markets are still very choppy with no correlation seen. I still believe its best to just look at the various crosses for trading opportunities. Thus this  morning the pairings that are sticking out like sore thumbs are the weakness seen in Eur, Kiwi and Gbp against the strength in Cad and to a lesser extent Chf and Usd.
Given the continuing flip flopping by Germany over the Greek situation, I would prefer to stay away from buying Eur pairings unless I see something particularly strong to buy the Eur.

Eur/Usd expect to see buyers  at 1.3530 but a break would have us back testing the past weekly lows  at  1.3470.


Eur/Cad stands out, but looking at the weekly chart we still have a ways to fall  before we find any support at all. 1.3500 then 1.3270 are next support levels  for  the  pairing.

Usd/Cad break of 1.0072 lows  should target 1.0016.

Gbp/Cad...at all time lows  as far as I can see...looking for a triple bottom to form Gbp/Cad at 1.5271 for a long trade targetting  1.5389 initially. stop would be 30-50 pips..

Gbp/Chf I will buy on a break and close above the hrly 300 lwma.

Gbp/Usd is currently chopping either side of the hrly 300 lwma with 61.8 fib providing support. Lower risk entry would be on an hourly close above both the 300 and 220 lwma . target would be current res line at 1.5270 with stop under the lows.

As far as Kiwi goes still believe we see further weakenning against Cad  and  the USD. Watching 0.7065/70 Nzd/Usd  support. 0.7130/50 area Nzd/Cad for reversals.

Aud/Usd currently testing support here at 0.9186 a break targets 0.9160 - hrly 100 smoothed ma  then 0.9131 and 0.9103.

Yen Crosses are pretty much sideways  here  with no interest to enter into trades.

Rumors going around that Fed to hike discount rate

Dollar has taken flight on these rumours  with USDX back through the hourly 200 sma.. Although fx markets seem to be buying  this, Gold and Silver may be telling  us something...anyone wanting to play against this current USD rally may want to sell Usd/Chf at 1.0640/50  with a  70 stop or close over the hrly 220 sma.
Euro wise stay away from the long side as this Greek business continues to cast doubt over the whole Eurozone economic/currency union. Euro is currently being beaten worse than a red headed stepchild as a result...

Outlook remains the same

Yesterdays outlook remains the same. Although we did not reach outer limits at which I would have enterred , today thus far a reversal is currently unfolding  of  the last 18 hours of price action.

Dollar pairs are mixed with the USDX close to near term resistance at 80.29 and hrly 169 ema, prefer the idea that near term we see another bout of USD weakness first, before a reversal. Wealso have a raft of US data kicking off at 08.30 am NYK.

08:30 USD     Core CPI (MoM) 0.10%   0.10%    -0.10%    (Advertisement)  Core CPI  Print     Report an Error Actual 0.10%   Forecast 0.10%   Previous -0.10%   The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   High Source Of Report:   U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics - Department of Labor Release URL:   http://www.bls.gov/cpi/  More   08:30 USD     Initial Jobless Claims  457.00K   455.00K    462.00K    (Advertisement)  Initial Jobless Claims  Print     Report an Error Actual 457.00K   Forecast 455.00K   Previous 462.00K   The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   High Source Of Report:   Department of Labor Release URL:   http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm  More   08:30 USD     CPI (MoM) 0.00%   0.10%    0.20%    (Advertisement)  CPI  Print     Report an Error Actual 0.00%   Forecast 0.10%   Previous 0.20%   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   High Source Of Report:   U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics - Department of Labor Release URL:   http://www.bls.gov/cpi/  More   08:30 USD     Current Account  -116.00B   -120.00B    -108.00B    (Advertisement)  Current Account  Print     Report an Error Actual -116.00B   Forecast -120.00B   Previous -108.00B   The Current Account index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods, services, and interest payments (exports minus imports). Export data can give reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. The goods portion is the same as the Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the USD. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   Medium Source Of Report:   Bureau of Economic Analysis Release URL:   http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/transactions/t..  More   10:00 USD     Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index      18.00    17.60    (Advertisement)  Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index  Print     Report an Error Actual -   Forecast 18.00   Previous 17.60   The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Philadelphia district. Any reading above 0 indicates improving conditions of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 0 indicates worsening conditions. It's concluded from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. It can be of some help in forecasting the US ISM. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   Medium Source Of Report:   Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Release URL:   http://www.philadelphiafed.org/  More   10:00 USD     Leading Index (MoM)     0.10%    0.30%

(Advertisement)  Core CPI  Print     Report an Error Actual 0.10% Forecast 0.10% Previous -0.10% The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   High Source Of Report:   U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics - Department of Labor Release URL:   http://www.bls.gov/cpi/  More

This being said I prefer to look at the crosses for trade opportunities and wait for better levels to buy the USD against Eur, Gbp, Chf and Aud.

Of most interest right here is the strength of both Cad and Kiwi against the comparatively weaker pairs of Chf and Gbp.

Look at selling Cad/Chf above 1.0500. Res lies at 1.0493 then 1.0516. Sup lies at 1.0443 then the 200 lwma hrly at 1.0421. Daily and 4 hrly charts remain in the strong uptrend since Nov 2009 and we are approaching the previous highs  not seen  since sep 2008 inbetween 1.05/1.07. Longer term traders may want to watch indicators and price for a topping formation on the daily and 4 hourly charts for entries.

Gbp/Cad I would leave for the moment as it looks as though GBP still has  further to fall, but watch reaction at the 61.8 fib at 1.5376.

Nzd/Chf looks attractive for a short opportunity above 0.7600 with possible triple top on the 4 hrly chart at 0.7610.Stop could be placed above the previous high at 0.7639. Immediate support lies at uptrend line currently at 0.7537 then hrly 200 ema.

Like Gbp/Cad Gbp/Nzd also has a similar formation  and threatens to break support at 2.1292 which also represents the 61.8 fib support.