Thursday 16 December 2010
Still plugging away
Sorry, I am still fiddling around with the moving average system whilst at the same time moving house and then country. I{ll be heading back to Oz for a wee while.....maybe even Singapore. Although nothing to do with the main system, I couldnt help myself yesterday as quite a few opportunities presented themselves all at once.
Saturday 11 December 2010
Gold Update
Just an update of what I spotted earlier in the week. Gold has indeed formed the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulder pattern. Obviously its all upto what happens at the neckline...
Thursday 9 December 2010
Cable - Update
Price fell a few pips short of the 34 point hurdle and has snapped back to trigger the short at 1.5766. Although we are only in testing mode, I am of the mind that I should tighten the stop a little more from 55 to 34 points. Also of concern is the CCI, should it close back above the 0 line at the closing of this bar/candle, I am thinking it may be more prudent to close the trade completely and wait for a stronger signal to reenter.
Ok price closed a tad under the moving average causing the CCI to close back above the 0 line albeit by a whisker. The trade was closed at 1.57644.
This will help to define the method of exiting a trade should one of the indicators fail to confirm after the trigger. Should cable continue lower then maybe a better method is to just leave the trade running with a tighter stop and closing on a failure of two of the initial trade confirmations being met.
Ok price closed a tad under the moving average causing the CCI to close back above the 0 line albeit by a whisker. The trade was closed at 1.57644.
This will help to define the method of exiting a trade should one of the indicators fail to confirm after the trigger. Should cable continue lower then maybe a better method is to just leave the trade running with a tighter stop and closing on a failure of two of the initial trade confirmations being met.
Cable
Although I am still finetuning the various accompanying indicator settings a potential short GbpUsd setup is unfolding. Ideally this is how it looks -
- Moving average has been broken and closed under. Price has not passed the 34 pip barrier from the moving average trigger.
- Laguerre breaking down from bullish mode.
- CCI Histgram crossing down through the 0 line. A little contentious as we really need this candle to close in order for a break of the 0 line... but lets see how this works anyways.
- Trix has turned bearish.
Trade - Short 1 Unit at 1.5766Hard Stop 1.5821 - 55 pointsTP 1 - 1/2 Unit @ 55 points - spread ,TP 2 - 1/4 Unit @ 89 points - spread .Stop moves to Break Even (BE) at 55 points.Balance 1/4 Unit trailed until a reversal trade is generated .
Thats pretty much the gist of the whole thing. There is still alot of finetuning and testing of the various components to be done and only time shall tell as markets test the method. But lets see how it goes.
Three Little Rules - Jaime Coleman at ForexLive
Three little rules
Jamie’s rules for forex traders:
- Understand the basics of technical analysis. You don’t need to be a quant-geek to be successful, but understanding the first ten chapters or so of the classic Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by John J. Murphy would be a great start.
- When the fundamental and technical outlooks for a currency differ, always side with the techs.
- When the fundamental and technical outlooks for a currency converge, go for it! Take a more aggressive position than normal.
Still fiddling about
Whilst Im adjusting moving averages and indicator settings for various pairs, I may as well just start off with keeping track of the 30 minute EurUsd and the 60 minute E-mini S+P and 60 minute E-mini Dow for the moment.
From the above both stock index charts are crossing back above the moving average although indicators are still bearish after yesterdays reversal.
From the above both stock index charts are crossing back above the moving average although indicators are still bearish after yesterdays reversal.
Wednesday 8 December 2010
30 min EurUsd Update
50% Balance was stopped at entry . No new signals as yet in Eur. Nett gain would have been 22.5 pips / lot .
Tuesday 7 December 2010
Still setting up, but lets have a look at the basic idea
Whilst Im just getting back into these markets and getting comfortable with the method, I thought I would go over an example of when and when not to trade. Below is a 30 min EurUsd chart.
1. Stand Aside - Although the moving average has been penetrated as has the Bollinger Band Stop and Laguerre has crossed up through the 0.25 and 0.5 area, we can see that both the shorter CCI and Trix are both still in negative territory.
2. Stand Aside - This time we have the Trix still holding above 0.85 which is bullish and the longer CCI in bullish mode.
3. Wait - This time all we are waiting for is the Trix to swing into buy mode. The very next bar Trix swings into positive buy mode. Action - Place a buy order at the moving average, Which in this case would be at 1.33165 and wait.
4. Wait - As a sidenote, if price hovers above or below the moving average for more thn 4-5 bars I find it safer to cancel the order and wait. In this case we have 7 candles until the price retraces back to the moving average and closes under it. Hmm what now? Indicators are all in buy mode, thus we wait and watch as price unfolds. On bar 4. price again closes back above the moving average so with indicators in BUY mode we place an order to buy at the moving average. 1.3319. As I am still refining the method the initial stop will be set at 38.2 pips by the EA with the initial 1st TP of 50% at 55 pips.
5. The BUY is triggered and we are long. Bought x lots at 1.3319. Stop 1.32808. TP 1 (55pips) - 50% at 1.3374, TP 2 ( 89 pips) - 30% at 1.3408. Break Entry stop once we have reached 55 pip TP 1.
The trade has unfolded and we closed 50% of the trade at 1.3374. The stop is moved to break entry. Next profit level is at 89 points from the moving average. At this point there is a certain amount of leeway as to how you manage the rest of the trade. As far as the secondary take profit goes and trailing the stop.
As we are using a 100 period moving average the chance that a trending move develops is higher than if we were to use a shorter moving average, thus, it is always a good idea to leave a little 20-30% to run should that trend develop.
Another tool to use in defining your TP levels is the use of the ATR projections. In this case the 89 point target is slightly under the top ATR 2 level at 1.3438 . You could place a limit sell order for the 30% at 1.3438 and turn off the EA or simply adjust the EA fto that rate.
OK, well I hope that helps in explaining what I am looking at and the very basic idea of how I will trade this moving average based system. I will continue to adjust and refine the method until I am content.
1. Stand Aside - Although the moving average has been penetrated as has the Bollinger Band Stop and Laguerre has crossed up through the 0.25 and 0.5 area, we can see that both the shorter CCI and Trix are both still in negative territory.
2. Stand Aside - This time we have the Trix still holding above 0.85 which is bullish and the longer CCI in bullish mode.
3. Wait - This time all we are waiting for is the Trix to swing into buy mode. The very next bar Trix swings into positive buy mode. Action - Place a buy order at the moving average, Which in this case would be at 1.33165 and wait.
4. Wait - As a sidenote, if price hovers above or below the moving average for more thn 4-5 bars I find it safer to cancel the order and wait. In this case we have 7 candles until the price retraces back to the moving average and closes under it. Hmm what now? Indicators are all in buy mode, thus we wait and watch as price unfolds. On bar 4. price again closes back above the moving average so with indicators in BUY mode we place an order to buy at the moving average. 1.3319. As I am still refining the method the initial stop will be set at 38.2 pips by the EA with the initial 1st TP of 50% at 55 pips.
5. The BUY is triggered and we are long. Bought x lots at 1.3319. Stop 1.32808. TP 1 (55pips) - 50% at 1.3374, TP 2 ( 89 pips) - 30% at 1.3408. Break Entry stop once we have reached 55 pip TP 1.
The trade has unfolded and we closed 50% of the trade at 1.3374. The stop is moved to break entry. Next profit level is at 89 points from the moving average. At this point there is a certain amount of leeway as to how you manage the rest of the trade. As far as the secondary take profit goes and trailing the stop.
As we are using a 100 period moving average the chance that a trending move develops is higher than if we were to use a shorter moving average, thus, it is always a good idea to leave a little 20-30% to run should that trend develop.
Another tool to use in defining your TP levels is the use of the ATR projections. In this case the 89 point target is slightly under the top ATR 2 level at 1.3438 . You could place a limit sell order for the 30% at 1.3438 and turn off the EA or simply adjust the EA fto that rate.
OK, well I hope that helps in explaining what I am looking at and the very basic idea of how I will trade this moving average based system. I will continue to adjust and refine the method until I am content.
Boring day to start off.... Anyone interested in Gold ??
Gold
Possible Head and Shoulder formation unfolding on the longer charts...
Possible Head and Shoulder formation unfolding on the longer charts...
Monday 6 December 2010
EurUsd
Just having a quick look at the charts and found that the LWMA - linear weighted moving average looks better on the Eur.
Heres a look at the 30 minute time frame. There was a trade that I missed. Laguerre negative, CCI negative with a break and close under the moving average. The entry was on a pullback to the moving average. Stoploss was 34 points initially with take profit of 50% at 55 pips which coincided with R1 and the first ATR projection. Stop would have been moved to breakeven at 55 pips. Thus you can see the trade would be still open with 22.5 ( 50% of 55) points gained and zero risk.
The next part takeprofit of 30% would be at the secondary ATR level or 89 pips depending on how the market is reacting. After reaching this secondary take profit - TP, the trade can be left alone, trailing the stop down with the moving average. Thus, the balane will be left to run until we get a trade in the opposite direction.
Heres a look at the 30 minute time frame. There was a trade that I missed. Laguerre negative, CCI negative with a break and close under the moving average. The entry was on a pullback to the moving average. Stoploss was 34 points initially with take profit of 50% at 55 pips which coincided with R1 and the first ATR projection. Stop would have been moved to breakeven at 55 pips. Thus you can see the trade would be still open with 22.5 ( 50% of 55) points gained and zero risk.
The next part takeprofit of 30% would be at the secondary ATR level or 89 pips depending on how the market is reacting. After reaching this secondary take profit - TP, the trade can be left alone, trailing the stop down with the moving average. Thus, the balane will be left to run until we get a trade in the opposite direction.
Constructing the charts
After being away from these markets for a while I would like to start afresh. The basic idea is to find trades that are simple to identify, simple to manage, have good risk reward profiles and also leave open the possibility of running a balance should a strong trend emerge.
To begin with I have constructed a base template which is based on the 100 and 90 EMA´s. A 95 ema is used to measure the point distance price runs away from the moving averages, thus it gives a good visual as to what the potential risk and reward may be on any particular pair. Over time I will change the moving averages to suit each individual pairing although I do not want to go back to using my longer moving averages for the moment.
The most difficult part of trading moving averages is of course whipsaw. To that extent I will use three indicators which will assist in keeping me on the positive side of the ledger. The first will be Laguerre with a gamma setting of between 0.66 to 0.8 depending on the volatility of the pair. The second will be a woodies CCI with the settings 100/50. The last will be the usage of a Bollinger Band Stop indicator with the settings based on 21 - 26 periods , standard deviation of 2 and money at risk of 1.0.
Ok thats the basics of the chart. I will also use an ATR based indicator that paints the forcast high and low projection for the day based on the previous 20 period average true range which will assist in profit taking. Pivot points, an information indicator and a simple EA for management of the position.
For those that are not familiar with EA´s ( Expert Adviser) they are automated programs that run in the MT4 . Update Stops is a simple EA that places the pre programmed stop levels, adjusts the stop to breakeven aftr a set amout of points have been reached and also takes partial profit at predefined levels. Its simple, easy to use and will assist me if I am not at the screen to manually manage the trade.
Basically we are left with a chart that looks like this -
To begin with I have constructed a base template which is based on the 100 and 90 EMA´s. A 95 ema is used to measure the point distance price runs away from the moving averages, thus it gives a good visual as to what the potential risk and reward may be on any particular pair. Over time I will change the moving averages to suit each individual pairing although I do not want to go back to using my longer moving averages for the moment.
The most difficult part of trading moving averages is of course whipsaw. To that extent I will use three indicators which will assist in keeping me on the positive side of the ledger. The first will be Laguerre with a gamma setting of between 0.66 to 0.8 depending on the volatility of the pair. The second will be a woodies CCI with the settings 100/50. The last will be the usage of a Bollinger Band Stop indicator with the settings based on 21 - 26 periods , standard deviation of 2 and money at risk of 1.0.
Ok thats the basics of the chart. I will also use an ATR based indicator that paints the forcast high and low projection for the day based on the previous 20 period average true range which will assist in profit taking. Pivot points, an information indicator and a simple EA for management of the position.
For those that are not familiar with EA´s ( Expert Adviser) they are automated programs that run in the MT4 . Update Stops is a simple EA that places the pre programmed stop levels, adjusts the stop to breakeven aftr a set amout of points have been reached and also takes partial profit at predefined levels. Its simple, easy to use and will assist me if I am not at the screen to manually manage the trade.
Basically we are left with a chart that looks like this -
The Road back.....
Its been a long while since I bothered to update this blog... As always personal reasons have stopped me. No NO NO, I didnt go broke because of trading, but yes I did draw down my capital. The honest truth was that I just gave up. A looming divorce just broke me to be honest. 9 months later after being through the wringer a few times Im back in dogsville and I need to move. With all I have left in the world to lose, and everything to gain, off I go.
Ok heres the challenge, I intend to turn 10,000 AUD into 1 million AUD. NO gimicks, no miracles, no excuses. It Is all I have left in the world right now. It might take me 3 years, it may take me 5 years, it may take me 7 years, but I will do it. Persistance, continuity and compounding with strict risk management...
Well how? Pretty simple. The most liquid markets have per day 120-150 point ranges . The concept is to grab less than 1/4 of that range every day and more with that 1/4 guarenteed of course with the most minimal of risk possible. Then, compound . I´m just starting this journey, so bare with me. I will of course share all I am looking at and using so anyone that cares can input and follow at their own perril..
FOREX IS NOT FOR THE UNINFORMED, YOU CAN LOSE MORE THAN YOUR INITIAL CAPITAL......
Look at me, it cost me my wife and family life....
The basis of the system is as per usual - moving avrages. They are the best trend based indicator and have served me well for over 10 years. Confirmation of the breaks is as usual a hard point. CCI seems at this point to be a viable indicator. TP and SL will of course be tied to ATR and generalised movement noticed around the moving average of choice based on historical fluctuations.
Trade size will be managed by risk/reward ratios based on each pairs volatility.
Well there it is.... I begin work this week.. I hope you enjoy the journey.
Richard
Ok heres the challenge, I intend to turn 10,000 AUD into 1 million AUD. NO gimicks, no miracles, no excuses. It Is all I have left in the world right now. It might take me 3 years, it may take me 5 years, it may take me 7 years, but I will do it. Persistance, continuity and compounding with strict risk management...
Well how? Pretty simple. The most liquid markets have per day 120-150 point ranges . The concept is to grab less than 1/4 of that range every day and more with that 1/4 guarenteed of course with the most minimal of risk possible. Then, compound . I´m just starting this journey, so bare with me. I will of course share all I am looking at and using so anyone that cares can input and follow at their own perril..
FOREX IS NOT FOR THE UNINFORMED, YOU CAN LOSE MORE THAN YOUR INITIAL CAPITAL......
Look at me, it cost me my wife and family life....
The basis of the system is as per usual - moving avrages. They are the best trend based indicator and have served me well for over 10 years. Confirmation of the breaks is as usual a hard point. CCI seems at this point to be a viable indicator. TP and SL will of course be tied to ATR and generalised movement noticed around the moving average of choice based on historical fluctuations.
Trade size will be managed by risk/reward ratios based on each pairs volatility.
Well there it is.... I begin work this week.. I hope you enjoy the journey.
Richard
Monday 19 April 2010
news hot and fast
Sell commodities and commodity currencies -
China’s rules to curb property “madness” will take effect now
China’s central bank has pledged to immediately implement new lending rules to cool real-estate.
Volcano chaos could continue for months
The Icelandic volcano causing travel chaos across Europe could go on erupting for months, geologists warn.
Germans in £1.6 bln Arriva bid
Deutsche Bahn, the state-owned German transport group, is poised to make a £1.6 bln swoop on Britain’s bus and train network.
Thursday 8 April 2010
Stay Long Yen
Greek/Bund spreads have blown out again. As I commented last month the market will look to take option b and push greece into a default situation thereby testing the resolve of the Eurozone to come to thier rescue.
The latest polls in the UK again point to a hung parliment and to add insult to injury, the BIS has just released a scathing report on UK public finances....Now, if u add yesterdays reports of the serious problems faced by California, crude and commodities at years highs.... kinds suggests we maybe in for another dose of Risk off trading.
Keep an eye firmly on the US 10´s and the stocks... If stocks see another strong day of selling with the buying of 10 yr treasury notes Yen will reap the rewards.
On a technical note, daily charts on Yen pairs have all turned bearish. Shorter charts are a little oversold here but rallies should be sold into.
The latest polls in the UK again point to a hung parliment and to add insult to injury, the BIS has just released a scathing report on UK public finances....Now, if u add yesterdays reports of the serious problems faced by California, crude and commodities at years highs.... kinds suggests we maybe in for another dose of Risk off trading.
Keep an eye firmly on the US 10´s and the stocks... If stocks see another strong day of selling with the buying of 10 yr treasury notes Yen will reap the rewards.
On a technical note, daily charts on Yen pairs have all turned bearish. Shorter charts are a little oversold here but rallies should be sold into.
The power of trend lines
notice the resistance power of the previous support.. when trading candles its always better to look at the close... here comes my ma.... sell yen pairs on a close below.. risk off bound to follow this..
The Moving Averages
I have found that utilising moving averages for not only entries but reversals, take profit and of course stops has been extremely beneficial to my trading over the years. They are by no means the be all and end all to trading and I use them in conjunction with Trend, Price Action and a few other indicators/oscillators to confirm.....
I would suggest that if you do not have a good understanding of trend and price action,then, skip this post completely until you have a good feel and understanding of those key areas.
Quite alot of the time you will find that price tends to chop either side of the moving averages before heading off in either a trend continuation or reversal thus, it is always important to know the daily and 4 hourly direction whether they be trending mode or consolidation mode. Take time to analyse the price action around the moving averages and you will see that whilst you may get chopped a few times, once the trend starts to move that excellent trades evolve from these moving averages and some, such as the yen crosses may be riden for months at a time.
I coverred rules a while back, but I have found that the best way to trade the moving averages is to trade only in the direction of the overall trend when daily and 4 hourly charts are heading in the same direction or both are beginning to show/confirm reversals. ONLY ENTER ONCE PRICE HAS BROKEN AND CLOSED THROUGH (ABOVE OR BELOW) THE MOVING AVERAGE, this little jem has kept me out of quite a few bad situations..
As far as the actual entry goes it really depends on the individual. A perfect Ma entry is waiting for the break then setting your entry at the Ma enterring on a pullback. Alas, sometimes price moves too far though the Ma and never looks back. To counter this it is sometimes useful to enter a % of your trade at the close of the candle then leave your balance at the MA.. this way should the price not retrace, you will at least have something to show for your patience and time.
lets get these puppies in print.
Moving Averages - Use Close
SMA = Simple Moving Average
SSMA = Smoothed Moving Average
EMA = Exponential Moving Average
LWMA = Linear Weighted Moving Average
USDX- US Dollar Index
Daily - 200 SMA , 100 SMA , 9 EMA
4 Hourly - 220 SSMA, 55 SMA
Hourly - 200 SMA, 169 EMA
Eur/Usd
Daily - 200 SMA , 169 EMA
4 Hourly - 400 LWMA, 169 EMA
Hourly - 220 SMA, 169 EMA, 100 LWMA
Usd/Chf
Daily - 200 SMA , 100 EMA
4 Hourly - 200SMA, 72 SMA
Hourly - 752 EMA, 300 EMA, 72 SMA
Gbp/Usd
Daily - 200 SMA , 300 LWMA
4 Hourly - 400 EMA, 220 or 200 LWMA,55 EMA
Hourly - 300 LWMA, 220 LWMA
Aud/Usd
Daily - 200 SMA , 100 SMA , 20 SMA
4 Hourly - 400 EMA, 220 EMA, 55 EMA
Hourly - 400 EMA, 100 SSMA
Usd/Cad
Daily - 200 SMA , 300 EMA, 169 EMA,
4 Hourly - 300 EMA, 169 EMA, 100 SMA
Hourly - 300 EMA, 169 EMA
YEN CROSSES
Aud/Jpy
Daily - 300 LWMA, 200LWMA, 100LWMA
4 Hourly - 300 LWMA
Hourly - 300 EMA, 300 LWMA
Eur/Jpy
Daily - 200 SMA, 100 EMA
4 Hourly - 440 SMA, 300 LWMA. 130/110 ema´s
Hourly - 300 LWMA, 89 EMA
Gbp/Jpy
Daily - 200 SMA, 200 LWMA, 21 EMA
4 Hourly - 220 LWMA, 100/90 EMA´S
Hourly - 100 LWMA, 100/90 EMA´S
30 min - 200 SMA, 200 LWMA
Eur/Gbp
Daily - 200 SMA, 100 SMA
4 Hourly - 100 SMA
Hourly - 200 SMA, 100 SMA
Spot Gold - Xau/Usd
Daily - 200 / 220 LWMA,
4 Hourly - 200 LWMA, 100/90 EMA´S
Hourly - 200 LWMA
Spot Silver - Xag/Usd
Daily - 200 SMA,
4 Hourly - 220 SMA, 100 EMA
Hourly - 200 EMA, 100 EMA
Crude Oil - CL/Mnth/Year
Daily - 200 SMA, 100 SMA
4 Hourly - 300 EMA, 144/169 EMA´s
Hourly - 300 EMA
I hope you find these helpfull in your trading and by all means if you have any questions or find a different moving average that continually produces great support or resistance capabilities please let me know and I will be glad to have a look at it for you.
I will make one point.
Different platforms will sometimes produce different levels for these moving averages. Differences may occur due to incorrect or corrupt data, differing open and closing times or incorrect calculation of the various moving averages.
It is always better to have not only your trading platform up and running, but I strongly suggest that you also have at least two other platforms ( be they demo´s or not) confirming the levels that you are looking at to enter or manage a trade.Sometimes you connection may have times out, your firewall acts up, and you end up enterring at the wrong rate or you completely miss the trade entirely.
Personally I use CMC Markets and FX Pro to trade, with a Broco demo platform up along side to confirm. When you are not completely certain or a trade it is always better to err on the side of staying out or using a very very small lot size and by all means please remember.
PRICE ACTION IS KEY AND DICTATES WHERE AND HOW INDICATORS AND OSCILLATORS MOVE. IF PRICE ACTION TELLS YOU THAT THINGS DONT QUITE SMELL RIGHT THEN GET OUT OR TIGHTEN YOR STOP TO BREAK EVEN OR BETTER.
I would suggest that if you do not have a good understanding of trend and price action,then, skip this post completely until you have a good feel and understanding of those key areas.
Quite alot of the time you will find that price tends to chop either side of the moving averages before heading off in either a trend continuation or reversal thus, it is always important to know the daily and 4 hourly direction whether they be trending mode or consolidation mode. Take time to analyse the price action around the moving averages and you will see that whilst you may get chopped a few times, once the trend starts to move that excellent trades evolve from these moving averages and some, such as the yen crosses may be riden for months at a time.
I coverred rules a while back, but I have found that the best way to trade the moving averages is to trade only in the direction of the overall trend when daily and 4 hourly charts are heading in the same direction or both are beginning to show/confirm reversals. ONLY ENTER ONCE PRICE HAS BROKEN AND CLOSED THROUGH (ABOVE OR BELOW) THE MOVING AVERAGE, this little jem has kept me out of quite a few bad situations..
As far as the actual entry goes it really depends on the individual. A perfect Ma entry is waiting for the break then setting your entry at the Ma enterring on a pullback. Alas, sometimes price moves too far though the Ma and never looks back. To counter this it is sometimes useful to enter a % of your trade at the close of the candle then leave your balance at the MA.. this way should the price not retrace, you will at least have something to show for your patience and time.
lets get these puppies in print.
Moving Averages - Use Close
SMA = Simple Moving Average
SSMA = Smoothed Moving Average
EMA = Exponential Moving Average
LWMA = Linear Weighted Moving Average
USDX- US Dollar Index
Daily - 200 SMA , 100 SMA , 9 EMA
4 Hourly - 220 SSMA, 55 SMA
Hourly - 200 SMA, 169 EMA
Eur/Usd
Daily - 200 SMA , 169 EMA
4 Hourly - 400 LWMA, 169 EMA
Hourly - 220 SMA, 169 EMA, 100 LWMA
Usd/Chf
Daily - 200 SMA , 100 EMA
4 Hourly - 200SMA, 72 SMA
Hourly - 752 EMA, 300 EMA, 72 SMA
Gbp/Usd
Daily - 200 SMA , 300 LWMA
4 Hourly - 400 EMA, 220 or 200 LWMA,55 EMA
Hourly - 300 LWMA, 220 LWMA
Aud/Usd
Daily - 200 SMA , 100 SMA , 20 SMA
4 Hourly - 400 EMA, 220 EMA, 55 EMA
Hourly - 400 EMA, 100 SSMA
Usd/Cad
Daily - 200 SMA , 300 EMA, 169 EMA,
4 Hourly - 300 EMA, 169 EMA, 100 SMA
Hourly - 300 EMA, 169 EMA
YEN CROSSES
Aud/Jpy
Daily - 300 LWMA, 200LWMA, 100LWMA
4 Hourly - 300 LWMA
Hourly - 300 EMA, 300 LWMA
Eur/Jpy
Daily - 200 SMA, 100 EMA
4 Hourly - 440 SMA, 300 LWMA. 130/110 ema´s
Hourly - 300 LWMA, 89 EMA
Gbp/Jpy
Daily - 200 SMA, 200 LWMA, 21 EMA
4 Hourly - 220 LWMA, 100/90 EMA´S
Hourly - 100 LWMA, 100/90 EMA´S
30 min - 200 SMA, 200 LWMA
Eur/Gbp
Daily - 200 SMA, 100 SMA
4 Hourly - 100 SMA
Hourly - 200 SMA, 100 SMA
Spot Gold - Xau/Usd
Daily - 200 / 220 LWMA,
4 Hourly - 200 LWMA, 100/90 EMA´S
Hourly - 200 LWMA
Spot Silver - Xag/Usd
Daily - 200 SMA,
4 Hourly - 220 SMA, 100 EMA
Hourly - 200 EMA, 100 EMA
Crude Oil - CL/Mnth/Year
Daily - 200 SMA, 100 SMA
4 Hourly - 300 EMA, 144/169 EMA´s
Hourly - 300 EMA
I hope you find these helpfull in your trading and by all means if you have any questions or find a different moving average that continually produces great support or resistance capabilities please let me know and I will be glad to have a look at it for you.
I will make one point.
Different platforms will sometimes produce different levels for these moving averages. Differences may occur due to incorrect or corrupt data, differing open and closing times or incorrect calculation of the various moving averages.
It is always better to have not only your trading platform up and running, but I strongly suggest that you also have at least two other platforms ( be they demo´s or not) confirming the levels that you are looking at to enter or manage a trade.Sometimes you connection may have times out, your firewall acts up, and you end up enterring at the wrong rate or you completely miss the trade entirely.
Personally I use CMC Markets and FX Pro to trade, with a Broco demo platform up along side to confirm. When you are not completely certain or a trade it is always better to err on the side of staying out or using a very very small lot size and by all means please remember.
PRICE ACTION IS KEY AND DICTATES WHERE AND HOW INDICATORS AND OSCILLATORS MOVE. IF PRICE ACTION TELLS YOU THAT THINGS DONT QUITE SMELL RIGHT THEN GET OUT OR TIGHTEN YOR STOP TO BREAK EVEN OR BETTER.
Saturday 27 March 2010
Eur/Aud
Short setup exists on a break of the 300 sma hrly. Initial stop at 1.4900. first target 169 ema hrly
gold swinging back to short.. watch the hrly close
Silver was warning that the gold move was fake. Hourly managed to close right above the ma thus longs still remain in favour although indicators are a little on the dubious side.. prefer to stand aside and watch silver which still remains trapped under the hourly ma.
Gbp/Cad
Looking to sell on break and close below the hrly 200ema add on break n close under the hrly 200 lwma. tgts will be fibs for now. Stop 1.5370 initially. Short at 1.5319 with stop lowered to entry. Hrly 200 lwma has proved a little tough to break but indicators are bearish on this pair. Under the hourly 100 ema we will see a better strength downward push.
Chf/Jpy
Short 86.73 , stop 87.10... looking for 86.45 initially... Well I got this wrong... I will maintain stop at 87.10 for the moment.
Nzd/Chf and Nzd/Jpy
Nzd/Chf - Short trade fired on break of hrly 200 sma . Sell 0.7512 stop 0.7535 . STOP TO ENTRY NZD/CHF
Also Nzd/Jpy short worth a look above 65.10 tgt should be trend support at 63.83 stop above todays highs. NOT WORKING OUT AS I THOUGHT.....either close at break even or reduce the position size by 1/2 at B/E and hold over the weekend.
Also Nzd/Jpy short worth a look above 65.10 tgt should be trend support at 63.83 stop above todays highs. NOT WORKING OUT AS I THOUGHT.....either close at break even or reduce the position size by 1/2 at B/E and hold over the weekend.
Cad/Chf
We have broken the channel and 4 hrly 400ema. Sell 1.0400 stop 1.0460. supports to beat are 1.0360 then 1.0330. Below there should see downward momentum pick up.
Support at 1.0330 held to produce a bounce .Move stop to entry and watch the reaction at the hourly 200 ema.
Support at 1.0330 held to produce a bounce .Move stop to entry and watch the reaction at the hourly 200 ema.
Friday 26 March 2010
Currency Manipulation - More a question of who hasn´t
US - the last few years as a result of complete neglect has enjoyed the benefits of a lower Dollar.... Should the Buck start to really rally hard dont be surprised to see the Fed go back to lower rates for an even further extended period and for data to turn back to the negative side.
China - Well not really much to say there.... Yep we are, nope we aint going to stop, and guess what? You can´t do a dam thing about it either....
Japan - Ha ha, looks like yesterdays Nikkei piece has caught the Japanese with their hands in the cookie jar so to speak..MOF has been getting the Japanese Post Bank to do its bidding.
Germany/France - Politicising the whole Greek debacle undermining the Euro.
UK - trying on the same strategy that the US has been enjoying.... Do nothing !
Russia/Korea/Brasil - Direct Intervention - hasn´t worked to well.....next will be lowering rates....
Swiss - well best not talk about that......
It seems to me that the only countries that are not trying to play some sort of games with their respective currencies are the ones that have a solid internal economy and have long term export agreements already in place such as commodities.....Australia, Canada... Mind you I think that should those currencies head back to par with the Dollar you will start to hear them squeel as well...
China - Well not really much to say there.... Yep we are, nope we aint going to stop, and guess what? You can´t do a dam thing about it either....
Japan - Ha ha, looks like yesterdays Nikkei piece has caught the Japanese with their hands in the cookie jar so to speak..MOF has been getting the Japanese Post Bank to do its bidding.
Germany/France - Politicising the whole Greek debacle undermining the Euro.
UK - trying on the same strategy that the US has been enjoying.... Do nothing !
Russia/Korea/Brasil - Direct Intervention - hasn´t worked to well.....next will be lowering rates....
Swiss - well best not talk about that......
It seems to me that the only countries that are not trying to play some sort of games with their respective currencies are the ones that have a solid internal economy and have long term export agreements already in place such as commodities.....Australia, Canada... Mind you I think that should those currencies head back to par with the Dollar you will start to hear them squeel as well...
The Greek saga isnt quite over yet
Ok OK, so the europeans finally got around to agreeing on a backstop for Greece but I think the damage has well and truely been done. Firstly, the backstop will only be used if Greece really needs it, that is to say that only if Greece is unable (dosn´t count not paying up for funds) to raise funds in the capital markets will the package be implemented. Secondly, the fact that the IMF is involved at all really does paint the whole Euro monetary union in a dark light.
With the backstop in place and Mr. Trichet revoking his very,very bad jibe, we have seen the more riskier Euro hedge trades being reversed as you could see in the likes of Eur/Aud, Eur/Cad, Eur/Gbp etc...One trade that may be of interest is Eur/Chf carry trade , whereby investors will borrow CHF and buy Greek t-bills and bonds openning up a fairly hefty 5+% carry. It will be interesting to see the next Greek bond auction.
Technically speaking I think that we will see a retracement in the majors vs the Dollar today with short Eur and Chf coverring , the smaller dollars will be very much influenced by their Yen and Euro crosses so probably good to stay away from at the moment. As far a Yen crosses go the bid tone is still present although I will be watching the stocks and the US 10 year notes ZNM0 for signs that a reversal may unfold.
One trade worth a look is the Cad/Chf short trade on a break and close under the channel support and
the 4 hrly 200 lwma. We now have a triple top in place at 1.0516 with 1.0336 the next level of support under the ma. Initial stop would be at 1.0460 or with a close back above the ma.
More musings a little later.
With the backstop in place and Mr. Trichet revoking his very,very bad jibe, we have seen the more riskier Euro hedge trades being reversed as you could see in the likes of Eur/Aud, Eur/Cad, Eur/Gbp etc...One trade that may be of interest is Eur/Chf carry trade , whereby investors will borrow CHF and buy Greek t-bills and bonds openning up a fairly hefty 5+% carry. It will be interesting to see the next Greek bond auction.
Technically speaking I think that we will see a retracement in the majors vs the Dollar today with short Eur and Chf coverring , the smaller dollars will be very much influenced by their Yen and Euro crosses so probably good to stay away from at the moment. As far a Yen crosses go the bid tone is still present although I will be watching the stocks and the US 10 year notes ZNM0 for signs that a reversal may unfold.
One trade worth a look is the Cad/Chf short trade on a break and close under the channel support and
the 4 hrly 200 lwma. We now have a triple top in place at 1.0516 with 1.0336 the next level of support under the ma. Initial stop would be at 1.0460 or with a close back above the ma.
More musings a little later.
Really not much to add
Technically, charts are bullish for the Dollar. Yen crosses remain in a broad sideways pattern , although as the month draws to a close, end of fin year yen sales look to be drying up hence mild upside pressure is once again being seen.
Trading wise, good opportunities have been few and far between during the New York session with only quick entries to be had for 20-70 pips. Selling aud,gbp and to a lesser extent eur rallys is the favoured trade as is buying usdchf on dips.
Gold Head and Shoulder break still remains valid with target at 1048. Silver remains in a downtrend but we need to see a break and close under the 4 hrly 220 sma for downward momentum is pickup targetting the 61.8 fib at 15.80.
Crude remains in a wide 78.50/83.50 band with trade opportunities on the break of the hourly 300 ema.
Dow......what can I say...the thing just keeps grinding higher. I guess when u have a Fed that has pumped in 2 trillion dollars into the market it has to go somewhere... Its day will come sure enough, it just doesnt look like that will happen anytime soon.
Trading wise, good opportunities have been few and far between during the New York session with only quick entries to be had for 20-70 pips. Selling aud,gbp and to a lesser extent eur rallys is the favoured trade as is buying usdchf on dips.
Gold Head and Shoulder break still remains valid with target at 1048. Silver remains in a downtrend but we need to see a break and close under the 4 hrly 220 sma for downward momentum is pickup targetting the 61.8 fib at 15.80.
Crude remains in a wide 78.50/83.50 band with trade opportunities on the break of the hourly 300 ema.
Dow......what can I say...the thing just keeps grinding higher. I guess when u have a Fed that has pumped in 2 trillion dollars into the market it has to go somewhere... Its day will come sure enough, it just doesnt look like that will happen anytime soon.
Monday 22 March 2010
Update - Monday 22nd March 2010
Risk aversion continues with the situation in Europe still completely divided, Chinese comments also not helping things. Technically daily charts have now turned back in favour of USD long positions with both hourly and 4 hourly looking for a retrace of last weeks moves. Over all looking for a test of Eur, Gbp, Aud lows before a bounce into fib resistance where shorts should be set for a test and break of this years lows versus the Buck.
Yen crosses technically also look bearish on the daily charts but would expect to see a retrace before a retest of the years lows.
Pretty much the same story in Gold, Silver and Crude. Only pattern that does look interesting is a possible Head and Shoulder pattern on the spot Gold - Xau/Usd chart... Currently we are sitting right at the neckline. A break would target 1048.30 very close to the previous weekly downtrend res , now turned support. Really need a break and close under the 4 hourly 500 ema which then should target the daily 200 lwma.
Dow futures are now trading June - YMM0 for the June mini dow futures. Currently we remain in a wide daily uptrend channel although price has now broken the 4 hrly uptrend support at 10637 with indicators -ve. Hourly charts are neutral with sideways chop expected very similar to last mondays price action. Only on a break of hourly 300ema would the downside pressure increase.
At current levels there is nothing that really looks worth doing. I will continue to watch price looking to take counter trend trades and then look to set trades in the direction of the daily charts.
Yen crosses technically also look bearish on the daily charts but would expect to see a retrace before a retest of the years lows.
Pretty much the same story in Gold, Silver and Crude. Only pattern that does look interesting is a possible Head and Shoulder pattern on the spot Gold - Xau/Usd chart... Currently we are sitting right at the neckline. A break would target 1048.30 very close to the previous weekly downtrend res , now turned support. Really need a break and close under the 4 hourly 500 ema which then should target the daily 200 lwma.
Dow futures are now trading June - YMM0 for the June mini dow futures. Currently we remain in a wide daily uptrend channel although price has now broken the 4 hrly uptrend support at 10637 with indicators -ve. Hourly charts are neutral with sideways chop expected very similar to last mondays price action. Only on a break of hourly 300ema would the downside pressure increase.
At current levels there is nothing that really looks worth doing. I will continue to watch price looking to take counter trend trades and then look to set trades in the direction of the daily charts.
Saturday 20 March 2010
Risk off
Correlation is back as risk aversion trades come back into play. Usd and Yen rallying as a result with Gold Silver Aud and Cad falling hard. Looking to sell Aud/Jpy on break and close under hrly 300 lwma, stop above days highs to start with 82.21 then 81.26 as targets.
Remember as this is an ma trade wait for the hourly close.
Sold some Aud/Jpy 82.75..although i didnt get the close both gbp and eurjpy looking to go lower so i have sold 1/2 position to begin and will add or close on next hourly close. stop 83.25. tgts as above
Remember as this is an ma trade wait for the hourly close.
Sold some Aud/Jpy 82.75..although i didnt get the close both gbp and eurjpy looking to go lower so i have sold 1/2 position to begin and will add or close on next hourly close. stop 83.25. tgts as above
Friday 19 March 2010
Update - Friday 19th March , 2010.
Markets are still very choppy with no correlation seen. I still believe its best to just look at the various crosses for trading opportunities. Thus this morning the pairings that are sticking out like sore thumbs are the weakness seen in Eur, Kiwi and Gbp against the strength in Cad and to a lesser extent Chf and Usd.
Given the continuing flip flopping by Germany over the Greek situation, I would prefer to stay away from buying Eur pairings unless I see something particularly strong to buy the Eur.
Eur/Usd expect to see buyers at 1.3530 but a break would have us back testing the past weekly lows at 1.3470.
Eur/Cad stands out, but looking at the weekly chart we still have a ways to fall before we find any support at all. 1.3500 then 1.3270 are next support levels for the pairing.
Usd/Cad break of 1.0072 lows should target 1.0016.
Gbp/Cad...at all time lows as far as I can see...looking for a triple bottom to form Gbp/Cad at 1.5271 for a long trade targetting 1.5389 initially. stop would be 30-50 pips..
Gbp/Chf I will buy on a break and close above the hrly 300 lwma.
Gbp/Usd is currently chopping either side of the hrly 300 lwma with 61.8 fib providing support. Lower risk entry would be on an hourly close above both the 300 and 220 lwma . target would be current res line at 1.5270 with stop under the lows.
As far as Kiwi goes still believe we see further weakenning against Cad and the USD. Watching 0.7065/70 Nzd/Usd support. 0.7130/50 area Nzd/Cad for reversals.
Aud/Usd currently testing support here at 0.9186 a break targets 0.9160 - hrly 100 smoothed ma then 0.9131 and 0.9103.
Yen Crosses are pretty much sideways here with no interest to enter into trades.
Given the continuing flip flopping by Germany over the Greek situation, I would prefer to stay away from buying Eur pairings unless I see something particularly strong to buy the Eur.
Eur/Usd expect to see buyers at 1.3530 but a break would have us back testing the past weekly lows at 1.3470.
Eur/Cad stands out, but looking at the weekly chart we still have a ways to fall before we find any support at all. 1.3500 then 1.3270 are next support levels for the pairing.
Usd/Cad break of 1.0072 lows should target 1.0016.
Gbp/Cad...at all time lows as far as I can see...looking for a triple bottom to form Gbp/Cad at 1.5271 for a long trade targetting 1.5389 initially. stop would be 30-50 pips..
Gbp/Chf I will buy on a break and close above the hrly 300 lwma.
Gbp/Usd is currently chopping either side of the hrly 300 lwma with 61.8 fib providing support. Lower risk entry would be on an hourly close above both the 300 and 220 lwma . target would be current res line at 1.5270 with stop under the lows.
As far as Kiwi goes still believe we see further weakenning against Cad and the USD. Watching 0.7065/70 Nzd/Usd support. 0.7130/50 area Nzd/Cad for reversals.
Aud/Usd currently testing support here at 0.9186 a break targets 0.9160 - hrly 100 smoothed ma then 0.9131 and 0.9103.
Yen Crosses are pretty much sideways here with no interest to enter into trades.
Rumors going around that Fed to hike discount rate
Dollar has taken flight on these rumours with USDX back through the hourly 200 sma.. Although fx markets seem to be buying this, Gold and Silver may be telling us something...anyone wanting to play against this current USD rally may want to sell Usd/Chf at 1.0640/50 with a 70 stop or close over the hrly 220 sma.
Euro wise stay away from the long side as this Greek business continues to cast doubt over the whole Eurozone economic/currency union. Euro is currently being beaten worse than a red headed stepchild as a result...
Euro wise stay away from the long side as this Greek business continues to cast doubt over the whole Eurozone economic/currency union. Euro is currently being beaten worse than a red headed stepchild as a result...
Thursday 18 March 2010
Outlook remains the same
Yesterdays outlook remains the same. Although we did not reach outer limits at which I would have enterred , today thus far a reversal is currently unfolding of the last 18 hours of price action.
Dollar pairs are mixed with the USDX close to near term resistance at 80.29 and hrly 169 ema, prefer the idea that near term we see another bout of USD weakness first, before a reversal. Wealso have a raft of US data kicking off at 08.30 am NYK.
This being said I prefer to look at the crosses for trade opportunities and wait for better levels to buy the USD against Eur, Gbp, Chf and Aud.
Of most interest right here is the strength of both Cad and Kiwi against the comparatively weaker pairs of Chf and Gbp.
Look at selling Cad/Chf above 1.0500. Res lies at 1.0493 then 1.0516. Sup lies at 1.0443 then the 200 lwma hrly at 1.0421. Daily and 4 hrly charts remain in the strong uptrend since Nov 2009 and we are approaching the previous highs not seen since sep 2008 inbetween 1.05/1.07. Longer term traders may want to watch indicators and price for a topping formation on the daily and 4 hourly charts for entries.
Gbp/Cad I would leave for the moment as it looks as though GBP still has further to fall, but watch reaction at the 61.8 fib at 1.5376.
Nzd/Chf looks attractive for a short opportunity above 0.7600 with possible triple top on the 4 hrly chart at 0.7610.Stop could be placed above the previous high at 0.7639. Immediate support lies at uptrend line currently at 0.7537 then hrly 200 ema.
Like Gbp/Cad Gbp/Nzd also has a similar formation and threatens to break support at 2.1292 which also represents the 61.8 fib support.
Dollar pairs are mixed with the USDX close to near term resistance at 80.29 and hrly 169 ema, prefer the idea that near term we see another bout of USD weakness first, before a reversal. Wealso have a raft of US data kicking off at 08.30 am NYK.
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Of most interest right here is the strength of both Cad and Kiwi against the comparatively weaker pairs of Chf and Gbp.
Look at selling Cad/Chf above 1.0500. Res lies at 1.0493 then 1.0516. Sup lies at 1.0443 then the 200 lwma hrly at 1.0421. Daily and 4 hrly charts remain in the strong uptrend since Nov 2009 and we are approaching the previous highs not seen since sep 2008 inbetween 1.05/1.07. Longer term traders may want to watch indicators and price for a topping formation on the daily and 4 hourly charts for entries.
Gbp/Cad I would leave for the moment as it looks as though GBP still has further to fall, but watch reaction at the 61.8 fib at 1.5376.
Nzd/Chf looks attractive for a short opportunity above 0.7600 with possible triple top on the 4 hrly chart at 0.7610.Stop could be placed above the previous high at 0.7639. Immediate support lies at uptrend line currently at 0.7537 then hrly 200 ema.
Like Gbp/Cad Gbp/Nzd also has a similar formation and threatens to break support at 2.1292 which also represents the 61.8 fib support.
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