Hindsight is a wonderous thing .. especially for new traders.. Shudda, Coulda, Woudda..... DIDNT!
Aud 1.0588 Long stop is now to entry and a risk-free trade. As the trade was taken on the 60 minute time frame we will stick to the 1.618% of the 500 ATR which is 35 pips. The first TP therefore should be 2 * that. 2nd TP will be 3 * the ATR with a balance running should a trend commence..
Yen crosses did indeed rebound but still no confo on either one.. That being said and given the daily charts we should see them topping here for a retrace into London open.
Tuesday 31 January 2012
Yen Crosses
Although there are no signals confirmed as yet, I will be watching for a further rebound in the Yen crosses and looking to establish intra-day long positions should the signals fire.
Rebound in stocks lifting risk sentiment into NYK afternoon
Seeing a nice rebound in these US stock futures continue, led of course by the Nasdaq.
Open Positions:
Closing short Aud @ market, Kiwi at 0.81968 or B/E and AudCad at 1.0624.
New Positions:
Open Positions:
Closing short Aud @ market, Kiwi at 0.81968 or B/E and AudCad at 1.0624.
New Positions:
- Sell EurAud @ 1.2394. Stop 41 pips, Stop to B/E 41 pips. TP 1 - 25% - +70 Pips, TP 2 - 25% - +140 Pips. Order Cancelled
- Sell 1/2 position GbpAud @ 1.4827. Stop 50 pips, Stop to B/E 50 pips. TP 1 - 25% - +80 Pips, TP 2 - 50% - +160 Pips. Order Cancelled
- Buy 1/2 position AudUsd @ 1.0588 on 60 min close above 1.0588. Long @ 1.0588 . Same parameters as yesterdays trade.
booking partial profit
Booked 25% AudUsd +75 pips- stop to entry
Booked 25% NzdUsd +50 Pips - stop to entry
Booked 25% NzdUsd +50 Pips - stop to entry
Monday 30 January 2012
Method - Ideas
I have spoken a few times on the Blog about my methods, but as traders we are always looking at ways to be more efficient. I have tried and tested more methods than I really care to admit but they only happen when we are in these choppy markets.. At the end of the day I am looking for a trend... A trend that I can ride for a few if not 10 big figs.
Thats where you earn your money.
As I have found, it is the trade you dont take that is the winner.. so we come back to being patient and consistent. A good trader sticks to a method. Sticks to good risk management.. Today was an example.
I am short Aud/Usd, Nzd/Usd , Aud/Cad and was short ENQ... as the mini Nasdaq ( ENQ) had not lived upto expectations I preferred to cut that and lower my directional risk as all 4 positions were pretty much all Risk-Off positions.
Thats where you earn your money.
As I have found, it is the trade you dont take that is the winner.. so we come back to being patient and consistent. A good trader sticks to a method. Sticks to good risk management.. Today was an example.
I am short Aud/Usd, Nzd/Usd , Aud/Cad and was short ENQ... as the mini Nasdaq ( ENQ) had not lived upto expectations I preferred to cut that and lower my directional risk as all 4 positions were pretty much all Risk-Off positions.
James Mound's Weekly Review
For the Week Ending January 29th, 2012
Energies
Crude oil continues to show declining volatility while channeling. Look for March to break and close below 97.40 to indicate a failure. Natural gas may have long term bottomed, but I would wait for the highs of this move to get taken out before being completely sold on the turn.
Financials
Stocks are choppy near the highs, holding on despite a less than enthusiastic FOMC meeting. The employment report remains a focal point as the market should see selling pressure ahead of Friday’s announcement. Bonds are worth a look for some call buying after premiums have dropped off due to a near comatose 3 month trading channel. The euro looks incredibly strong on a daily chart but I would discourage you from getting suckered in here – this market is a strong sell. The U.S. dollar is on monthly trendline support and is a buy here, likely to pressure European currencies along with the Australian dollar. The Japanese yen is ready for takeoff after a decent price surge and momentum on its side. Look for a breakout in February as the yen remains a buy and I continue to stand by my forecast that:
The Japanese Yen futures will hit 140 before it hits 80 or I will quit writing the Weekend Commodities Review...forever.
Repeat from last week: This is setup time in grains as the market positions ahead of plantings, over-evaluating carryover inventories and droughts in South America while ignoring the exposure the market has to a U.S. dollar rally and collapse of several European demand-heavy economies. Short beans and corn with puts, and spread long wheat against short corn.
Meats
Cattle looks bullish on a daily, weekly and monthly chart – but I’m all in short here with straight puts. Hogs are choppy and going nowhere fast.
Metals
Short gold and silver this week with bear put spreads. Copper is right up on my anticipated resistance area at 3.95 and is a short here.
Softs
Coffee is right up on key support and I suspect that any lower close would signal a clear break in the market. I suspect coffee could plunge 20% in a matter of 2-3 months. Cocoa has been rising steadily and may have established a short term bottom, but I see upside as limited and look to accumulate puts near current levels. Cotton is also a short, along with sugar. The softs sector is very exposed to a rally in the U.S. dollar and concerns over weakness in the global economy. OJ is still avoidable but perhaps the thing that makes this market go the way of pork bellies is an out of control rally.
Energies
Crude oil continues to show declining volatility while channeling. Look for March to break and close below 97.40 to indicate a failure. Natural gas may have long term bottomed, but I would wait for the highs of this move to get taken out before being completely sold on the turn.
Financials
Stocks are choppy near the highs, holding on despite a less than enthusiastic FOMC meeting. The employment report remains a focal point as the market should see selling pressure ahead of Friday’s announcement. Bonds are worth a look for some call buying after premiums have dropped off due to a near comatose 3 month trading channel. The euro looks incredibly strong on a daily chart but I would discourage you from getting suckered in here – this market is a strong sell. The U.S. dollar is on monthly trendline support and is a buy here, likely to pressure European currencies along with the Australian dollar. The Japanese yen is ready for takeoff after a decent price surge and momentum on its side. Look for a breakout in February as the yen remains a buy and I continue to stand by my forecast that:
The Japanese Yen futures will hit 140 before it hits 80 or I will quit writing the Weekend Commodities Review...forever.
Grains
Repeat from last week: This is setup time in grains as the market positions ahead of plantings, over-evaluating carryover inventories and droughts in South America while ignoring the exposure the market has to a U.S. dollar rally and collapse of several European demand-heavy economies. Short beans and corn with puts, and spread long wheat against short corn.
Meats
Cattle looks bullish on a daily, weekly and monthly chart – but I’m all in short here with straight puts. Hogs are choppy and going nowhere fast.
Metals
Short gold and silver this week with bear put spreads. Copper is right up on my anticipated resistance area at 3.95 and is a short here.
Softs
Coffee is right up on key support and I suspect that any lower close would signal a clear break in the market. I suspect coffee could plunge 20% in a matter of 2-3 months. Cocoa has been rising steadily and may have established a short term bottom, but I see upside as limited and look to accumulate puts near current levels. Cotton is also a short, along with sugar. The softs sector is very exposed to a rally in the U.S. dollar and concerns over weakness in the global economy. OJ is still avoidable but perhaps the thing that makes this market go the way of pork bellies is an out of control rally.
Kiwi and Aussie Short positions
Should Kiwi - NzdUsd close the 30 minute bar above 0.8192, close the 0.82119 short.
Likewise, with the Aussie - AudUsd short from 1.06128 - Should we close the hour above 1.0571 a bounce should follow.
Close the positions at market or place your bid to close the sold positions at Kiwi - 0.8192 + spread and Aussie - 1.0571 + spread .
Likewise, with the Aussie - AudUsd short from 1.06128 - Should we close the hour above 1.0571 a bounce should follow.
Close the positions at market or place your bid to close the sold positions at Kiwi - 0.8192 + spread and Aussie - 1.0571 + spread .
MT4 Users - Position monitoring EA
One of the most useful EA's I have found is Update Stops. Although you will need to configure it properly to each pair according to volatility and whether or not the pair is 5, 4 or 2 digits.. It is a useful tool in managing your position when you just cannot be at the screen 24/7.
You can email or Skype me at scmtrading and I will send you the file.
You can email or Skype me at scmtrading and I will send you the file.
Mini Nasdaq - ENQH2
Calling No Joy - Sideways into London is never a good thing ... Close the trade at B/E - breakeven.
EurCad
Although no signal as yet its worth watching for a topping formation. Watch the 30 minute chart for some MACD or Rsi bearish divergence to short on a quick trade. Daily chart is bullish as is the 4 Hrly chart. Although the 4 Hrly 222 ema has capped the rally thus far.
Trade Ideas - Monday 30th
First Up
Short Aud/Usd @ 1.06128 - Stop 37 pips , Move stop to B/E 37 pips . TP 1 - 25% - +75 Pips , Tp 2 - 50% - +100 Pips.
Sell NzdUsd @ 0.82119. Stop 35 Pips, move to B/E +35 Pips. TP 1 - 25% - +50 Pips, TP 2 - 50% - +100 Pips
Sell 1/2 unit Mini Nasdaq @ 2443.0. Stop 11.5 Pips, move to B/E 10.75 Pips. TP 1-25% - +21.0 Pips , TP 2 - 50% - 32.0 Pips. Cover on a bounce at the 30 min 333ema.
Short AudCad @ 1.0626 ( missed earlier entry @ 1.0640) - Stop 38 Pips, move to B/E 38 Pips. TP 1 - 75 pips, TP 2 +125 Pips.
Missed -
GbpAud - Long which fired at 1.4785 - Parameters on this trade would have been - Stop 50 Pips, stop to B/E 50 Pips. TP 1 25% +80, TP 2 50 % +160.
Worth a look as well is the AudJpy Daily chart. Doji top and failure at the 200 SMA.
Short Aud/Usd @ 1.06128 - Stop 37 pips , Move stop to B/E 37 pips . TP 1 - 25% - +75 Pips , Tp 2 - 50% - +100 Pips.
Sell NzdUsd @ 0.82119. Stop 35 Pips, move to B/E +35 Pips. TP 1 - 25% - +50 Pips, TP 2 - 50% - +100 Pips
Sell 1/2 unit Mini Nasdaq @ 2443.0. Stop 11.5 Pips, move to B/E 10.75 Pips. TP 1-25% - +21.0 Pips , TP 2 - 50% - 32.0 Pips. Cover on a bounce at the 30 min 333ema.
Short AudCad @ 1.0626 ( missed earlier entry @ 1.0640) - Stop 38 Pips, move to B/E 38 Pips. TP 1 - 75 pips, TP 2 +125 Pips.
Missed -
GbpAud - Long which fired at 1.4785 - Parameters on this trade would have been - Stop 50 Pips, stop to B/E 50 Pips. TP 1 25% +80, TP 2 50 % +160.
Worth a look as well is the AudJpy Daily chart. Doji top and failure at the 200 SMA.
Thursday 19 January 2012
Whilst I am waiting for signals...
Being wrong is acceptable, but staying wrong is totally unacceptable.
Being wrong isn’t a choice, but staying wrong is.
To play any game successfully, you have to have some skill, an edge.
But beyond that, it is money management.
Good traders manage the downside;
they don’t worry the upside.
Mark Minnervini
Being wrong isn’t a choice, but staying wrong is.
To play any game successfully, you have to have some skill, an edge.
But beyond that, it is money management.
Good traders manage the downside;
they don’t worry the upside.
Mark Minnervini
Wednesday 18 January 2012
2012 - End of the world or just the Eurozone in its present form ?
After a year of great adversity and change I finally can look back at 2011 and thank God I made it through...
Unfortunately for the Euro-zone it must feel like groundhog day.... we are still faced by the same problems we faced coming into 2010.. Remember back then? Greece was not needing financial aid whatsoever they told us.... Yeh right ! Not much has changed at all.. with possible exception of the markets ability to accept more and more bad news.. and the ratings agencies downgrading any country that can even spell taramousalata..
On the US front its an election year thus, expect data to be on the positive side....
China ? ... I really don't know whether to believe the data they keep pumping out....surely we will see things go sideways and even backwards this year.
War with Iran ? ... Who can afford it these days...
Around the markets we are seeing a continuation of the Risk-On trade today... Stocks are firm, USD a tad weaker across the board today.. will be watching short EurCad and EurAud setups on the 30 and 60 minute charts.
Unfortunately for the Euro-zone it must feel like groundhog day.... we are still faced by the same problems we faced coming into 2010.. Remember back then? Greece was not needing financial aid whatsoever they told us.... Yeh right ! Not much has changed at all.. with possible exception of the markets ability to accept more and more bad news.. and the ratings agencies downgrading any country that can even spell taramousalata..
On the US front its an election year thus, expect data to be on the positive side....
China ? ... I really don't know whether to believe the data they keep pumping out....surely we will see things go sideways and even backwards this year.
War with Iran ? ... Who can afford it these days...
Around the markets we are seeing a continuation of the Risk-On trade today... Stocks are firm, USD a tad weaker across the board today.. will be watching short EurCad and EurAud setups on the 30 and 60 minute charts.
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