Target - 109.83. Above 111.01 Pattern is invalid.
GbpJpy -
Target 131.35. Above 1.3255 Pattern is invalid.
Tuesday 27 March 2012
EurJpy & GbpJpy
EurJpy -
Target - 109.83. Above 111.01 Pattern is invalid.
GbpJpy -
Target 131.35. Above 1.3255 Pattern is invalid.
Target - 109.83. Above 111.01 Pattern is invalid.
GbpJpy -
Target 131.35. Above 1.3255 Pattern is invalid.
Stock Futures - ES, YM & NQ
ESM2 -
Daily AB = CD target 1437.75. Weekly Target 1553.50.
Both Weekly and Daily charts have Bearish Butterfly patterns within the target zone. Whilst market remains in Bull mode top picking remains dangerous but watch reaction at target levels for a retrace. Minimum target for the Bearish Butterfly at 1289.
YMM2 -
Mini Dow is running behind the other indexes as per usual. Daily Ab = CD Target remains at 13689 with larger Weekly Target at 14260.
Similarly to the ES both Weekly and Daily charts show a Bearish Butterfly pattern. Minimum retrace target for these patterns lies at 12226.
NQM2 -
Unlike the ES & YM the Mini Nasdaq has already completed the AB = CD formation and is continuing higher. Daily Chart clearly has a break out of a pennant, the measured move target lies at 2837.75. Currently we have a Bearish Butterfly, above the 2.618 of BC at 2850 the pattern will be negated . Minimum Target of the retracement lies at 2408.25.
Daily AB = CD target 1437.75. Weekly Target 1553.50.
Both Weekly and Daily charts have Bearish Butterfly patterns within the target zone. Whilst market remains in Bull mode top picking remains dangerous but watch reaction at target levels for a retrace. Minimum target for the Bearish Butterfly at 1289.
YMM2 -
Mini Dow is running behind the other indexes as per usual. Daily Ab = CD Target remains at 13689 with larger Weekly Target at 14260.
Similarly to the ES both Weekly and Daily charts show a Bearish Butterfly pattern. Minimum retrace target for these patterns lies at 12226.
NQM2 -
Unlike the ES & YM the Mini Nasdaq has already completed the AB = CD formation and is continuing higher. Daily Chart clearly has a break out of a pennant, the measured move target lies at 2837.75. Currently we have a Bearish Butterfly, above the 2.618 of BC at 2850 the pattern will be negated . Minimum Target of the retracement lies at 2408.25.
Monday 26 March 2012
CLK2 - May WTI Crude
Bullish, But.... Just way too much politicking going on with Crude at present to bother trading it as was seen last Friday with the Israel/Iran warmongering rumours flying about - later denied - leading to a 3.00 spike.
Daily -
Flag pattern still playing out. 104 - 108 covers the outsides on a Daily closing basis for the next move.
4 Hourly -
Sideways choppy trading persists. Currently there are two AB = CD patterns visible of which Fridays spike completed at 108.20 - 88.6 Fib, which now suggests a move lower to 104.30/40 support area. 4 Hourly break and close under the 34 Ema would give support to a move lower.
The second AB = CD pattern targets 108.86.
UsdChf
Bearish both Daily and 4 Hourly
Daily -
AB = CD target at 0.8960 still unfolding. Resistance at the 50 Ema.
4 Hourly -
Price broke SHS neckline Friday at 0.9088 and the 61.8 Fib. Measured move comes in at 0.8836. Immediate resistance lies at the 50 Ema and stronger at the 330 Ema. Will monitor the next few 4 hourly candles for a false break.
Sunday 25 March 2012
AudUsd
Overall Bearish although expect a bounce this week.
Daily -
Failure to close below the Daily 200 Sma gives the Aussie a reprieve from a larger fall.
At this point favour a retracement back to the 50% Fib at 1.0596 after completing at the 200.0 Fib extension.
Immediately resistance is located at 23.6 Fib - 1.04586, 75 Ema - 1.0505, 38.5 Fib - 1.0535.
A failure at 1.0543 - 50 Line would indicate another attempt lower to uptrend support at 1.0300.
4 Hourly -
Favour further upside retracement after completing a Bullish Butterfly formation toward the 75 Ema at 1.0543. Support immediately at 1.0422.
UsdJpy
Have the Japanese got enough Yen before end-of-year?
Daily -
Daily chart has turned bearish closing under the 83.325 - 50 Line. Expect one last bounce higher whilst price remains above the 23.6 Fib on a Daily closing basis. Similarly should price close above the immediate resistance at 82.978 expect choppy trading into month end.
4 Hourly -
Bearish Butterfly completed.
Thus far the retrace found support at the 200.0 Fib extension just shy of support at 81.75. At this point would expect any bounce to target the 50% Fib of this move at 83.02 in line with the Daily chart resistance. A break of 81.75 would immediately target the 222 Ema at 80.92.
Cable - GbpUsd
Overall bullish momentum remains.1.5950/1.5750.
Daily -
Daily charts inability to hold below the Daily 200 Sma points to another attempt higher. Ideally the upside target of the CD leg will complete at 1.5947 the 88.6 Fib of the BC leg after a 113.0 retrace of AB.
Also visible is a possible SHS pattern where the current price action may be forming the right shoulder. Neckline currently resides at 1.5585.
4 Hourly -
Bearish Butterfly pattern still in force Max price target is 1.5958. Above invalidates. First target remains 1.5747.
EurUsd
Overall Bullish with an attempt sooner or later on the 1.3300 resistance. Two patterns worth keeping an eye on.
Update - 4 Hourly chart also has a possible Bullish AB = CD pattern targetting 1.3400. Previous retrace was >50.0% but <61.8 thus reciprocal would target >161.8 but < 200.0% Fib.
Possible Daily SHS pattern set-up - Currently building the right shoulder which ideally would complete below the 78.6 Fib and 200 Daily SMA.
4 Hourly -
The 4 horly chart presents with an Inverse SHS. Friday closed on the neckline zone 1.3267/83. Target should the pattern be confirmed would be 1.3530/70. Failure however, would continue to see sideways consolidation in the 1.30//1.33 range.
Wednesday 21 March 2012
Dow Futures
Current Hourly chart SHS playing out. Bullish butterfly also present with max range near tgt at 13020.
Update - Low 13051.5 with the 200 Hourly Sma proving too tough a nut to crack. Price has now breached neckline and the pattern is invalid. Immediate topside target is 13178.
Update - Low 13051.5 with the 200 Hourly Sma proving too tough a nut to crack. Price has now breached neckline and the pattern is invalid. Immediate topside target is 13178.
Tuesday 20 March 2012
Swissy
UsdChf - 4 Hourly Chart
Interesting pattern emerging on the 4 Hourly UsdChf. Currently we have an AB=CD pattern unfolding targeting 0.8961 with an 88.6//113.0 Fib reciprocal. But also the chance of an SHS.
Ideally for the SHS we need to construct the right shoulder back toward 0.9230 before a fall back and break of the neckline currently at 0.9093. Should the right shoulder be symmetrical in both time and price the measured move target would come in near 0.8858.
Very similar pattern to that identified in the USDX and obviously inverse shs in both Aud and Kiwi..
Update - UsdChf was unable to rally toward ideal target and has now broken the support, Target now reverts to the immediate AB=CD and 88.6 % zone at 0.8961/76.
Interesting pattern emerging on the 4 Hourly UsdChf. Currently we have an AB=CD pattern unfolding targeting 0.8961 with an 88.6//113.0 Fib reciprocal. But also the chance of an SHS.
Ideally for the SHS we need to construct the right shoulder back toward 0.9230 before a fall back and break of the neckline currently at 0.9093. Should the right shoulder be symmetrical in both time and price the measured move target would come in near 0.8858.
Very similar pattern to that identified in the USDX and obviously inverse shs in both Aud and Kiwi..
Update - UsdChf was unable to rally toward ideal target and has now broken the support, Target now reverts to the immediate AB=CD and 88.6 % zone at 0.8961/76.
Aussie
Stops gone as price breaks and closes under the 200 Ema Hourly. Thus far the 200 Sma Hourly has stopped the decline ahead of the more important Inverted SHS neckline at 1.0537. Immediately, price needs to overcome the 50 line at 1.0573 on an hourly closing basis to stabalise with next resistance at 1.0603.
There are now two possible new scenarios unfolding -
1. Current Inverted SHS continues to play out with target at 1.0670.
2. Much larger Inverted SHS currently forming the right shoulder toward 1.0485. Measured move would be of the magnitude of +226 points.
Update - And No. 2 looks like it may be a winner.. 1.0440/60 would be the ideal area for a bounce and run back to the neckline. Given the SHS formations now on YM/FTSE/ASX200 further Risk-Off pressure may come to bare.. Only a sharp sell off in the Eur and Gbp particularly against the Aud and Kiwi would slow the AudUsd and Nzd/Usd decline enabling a valid right shoulder. Daily 200 Sma lies at 1.0402. A break there and we again look to our medium term Daily Target the AB=CD target at 0.9770.
Update 2 - Right shoulder of the pattern indeed stopped and reversed in the indicated zone. 4 Hourly close above the 23.6 Fib encourages the upward view. Confirmation of a stronger rally to the neckline and beyond on a close above the 50 Line at 1.0536.
There are now two possible new scenarios unfolding -
1. Current Inverted SHS continues to play out with target at 1.0670.
2. Much larger Inverted SHS currently forming the right shoulder toward 1.0485. Measured move would be of the magnitude of +226 points.
Update - And No. 2 looks like it may be a winner.. 1.0440/60 would be the ideal area for a bounce and run back to the neckline. Given the SHS formations now on YM/FTSE/ASX200 further Risk-Off pressure may come to bare.. Only a sharp sell off in the Eur and Gbp particularly against the Aud and Kiwi would slow the AudUsd and Nzd/Usd decline enabling a valid right shoulder. Daily 200 Sma lies at 1.0402. A break there and we again look to our medium term Daily Target the AB=CD target at 0.9770.
Update 2 - Right shoulder of the pattern indeed stopped and reversed in the indicated zone. 4 Hourly close above the 23.6 Fib encourages the upward view. Confirmation of a stronger rally to the neckline and beyond on a close above the 50 Line at 1.0536.
Cable -
Cable - 4 Hourly Chart
Cable presents a Bearish Butterfly with Max D point at 1.5945, also coinciding with the completion of an AB = CD pattern and Fib extension ( 113.0//88.6) at 1.5945.
Update - Price was capped at the 78.6 for a mild decline. Still target the AB=CD target at 1.5945
Cable presents a Bearish Butterfly with Max D point at 1.5945, also coinciding with the completion of an AB = CD pattern and Fib extension ( 113.0//88.6) at 1.5945.
Update - Price was capped at the 78.6 for a mild decline. Still target the AB=CD target at 1.5945
UsdJpy
UsdJpy - Daily Chart
Whilst the weekly chart pattern still looks to complete at the AB = CD target of 84.66 ( using Axi Trader chart), the Daily chart currently presents with a Bearish Bat pattern - Maximum point D value is 84.82. I will be watching the close of today's candle on the 50 line of the Marabuzo candle at 83.325 for immediate direction as to whether price begins a retracement of this rally or we have one further crack at the target.
Should we see a Daily close under the 50 line, immediate support comes in at 23.6% Fib and previous 50 line at 82.00. As was the case last year expect the retracement to be aggressive and rapid.
Update - Still favour further upside whilst 83.325 holds on a Daily closing basis. Short below.
Whilst the weekly chart pattern still looks to complete at the AB = CD target of 84.66 ( using Axi Trader chart), the Daily chart currently presents with a Bearish Bat pattern - Maximum point D value is 84.82. I will be watching the close of today's candle on the 50 line of the Marabuzo candle at 83.325 for immediate direction as to whether price begins a retracement of this rally or we have one further crack at the target.
Should we see a Daily close under the 50 line, immediate support comes in at 23.6% Fib and previous 50 line at 82.00. As was the case last year expect the retracement to be aggressive and rapid.
Update - Still favour further upside whilst 83.325 holds on a Daily closing basis. Short below.
USDX
The SHS on the hourly chart pointed out Friday has now completed at 79.36.
Looking at the 4 Hourly chart, there appears to be a larger SHS being constructed with the neckline at 79.37. Immediate resistance would be located at the 50 line at 79.61. A break and close above would encourage the view that we are constructing the right shoulder with next resistance at 80.04.
The measured move of the formation would be -147 points from the neckline break.
Update - Pattern is being invalidated at present with price declining through possible neckline.
Looking at the 4 Hourly chart, there appears to be a larger SHS being constructed with the neckline at 79.37. Immediate resistance would be located at the 50 line at 79.61. A break and close above would encourage the view that we are constructing the right shoulder with next resistance at 80.04.
The measured move of the formation would be -147 points from the neckline break.
Update - Pattern is being invalidated at present with price declining through possible neckline.
Monday 19 March 2012
Yens
EurJpy - 4 Houly Chart
Bullish - Inverted SHS pattern targets 111.68 with an initial topside target at 110.48 which is the AB=CD and 0.382 - 2.618 Fib configuration.
Update - AB=CD completed. Support is now at 109.84 and 109.38 for the final run to complete the Inverted SHS at 111.68
AudJpy - 4 Hourly Chart
Bullish - Target zone of 88.88/89.10 bounded by the AB = CD and Fib extension 0.50//2.00.
Update - Price continues to struggle at the 161.8 Fib of the BC retrace. Expect the 88.00 area to provide good support for a final move higher into target.
GbpJpy - 4 Hourly Chart
Bullish - Similarly to EurJpy, the Inverted SHS targets 133.78. The current uptrend also is formed by three equal drives with the current third leg also completing at 133.78. A further extension may be possible to 134.11 using the Fib 0.382//2.618 reciprocal. Immediate support comes in at 131.25.
Update - Similarly to AudJpy, price is finding going a little tough at the 161.8 Fib extension of the BC leg . Expect support at the 131.80/132.10 to contain for a further move into the target zone.
Bullish - Inverted SHS pattern targets 111.68 with an initial topside target at 110.48 which is the AB=CD and 0.382 - 2.618 Fib configuration.
Update - AB=CD completed. Support is now at 109.84 and 109.38 for the final run to complete the Inverted SHS at 111.68
AudJpy - 4 Hourly Chart
Bullish - Target zone of 88.88/89.10 bounded by the AB = CD and Fib extension 0.50//2.00.
Update - Price continues to struggle at the 161.8 Fib of the BC retrace. Expect the 88.00 area to provide good support for a final move higher into target.
GbpJpy - 4 Hourly Chart
Bullish - Similarly to EurJpy, the Inverted SHS targets 133.78. The current uptrend also is formed by three equal drives with the current third leg also completing at 133.78. A further extension may be possible to 134.11 using the Fib 0.382//2.618 reciprocal. Immediate support comes in at 131.25.
Update - Similarly to AudJpy, price is finding going a little tough at the 161.8 Fib extension of the BC leg . Expect support at the 131.80/132.10 to contain for a further move into the target zone.
Aussie & Kiwi
AudUsd -
Last weeks rally looks set to continue near term with two immediate targets at 1.0640 then 1.0670 ( Inverted SHS Target). Support should now be located at the Daily Pivot and minor uptrend support near 1.0565.
Update - Support zone held price for a run toward the initial target at 1.0640. Dips should ideally find strong support at 1.0575/85 for a run to complete the Inverted SHS.
Nzd/Usd -
Exact same pattern on the Kiwi - Inverted SHS target 0.8390 with minor target at 0.8345 first. Support lies at 0.8225.
Update - Something just isn't right here .... Kiwi is lagging way behind the other pairs after what was a choppy night going nowhere. Whilst the pattern remains valid watch the Kiwi for a failure. A break and close under the Hourly 200 Ema would signal the decline.
Last weeks rally looks set to continue near term with two immediate targets at 1.0640 then 1.0670 ( Inverted SHS Target). Support should now be located at the Daily Pivot and minor uptrend support near 1.0565.
Update - Support zone held price for a run toward the initial target at 1.0640. Dips should ideally find strong support at 1.0575/85 for a run to complete the Inverted SHS.
Nzd/Usd -
Exact same pattern on the Kiwi - Inverted SHS target 0.8390 with minor target at 0.8345 first. Support lies at 0.8225.
Update - Something just isn't right here .... Kiwi is lagging way behind the other pairs after what was a choppy night going nowhere. Whilst the pattern remains valid watch the Kiwi for a failure. A break and close under the Hourly 200 Ema would signal the decline.
Friday 16 March 2012
USDX
The Dollar Index whilst above 80.04 - the 61.8 fib of the 79.67//80.73 up leg - targets 81.15 the reciprocal 161.8 Fib extension. Should we see price failing around the 80.70 level, it is very possible that we instead are forming an SHS with neckline currently at 80.19.
Update... SHS it is ... Target looks to be at 79.36
Update... SHS it is ... Target looks to be at 79.36
EurUsd - Hourly chart
Current retrace should have finalised at the 61.8 fib 1.3119, also the equal move of the minor retrace 12-13th March. Downside target remains 1.2978. Only an hourly close above the 200 Ema would invalidate the downside target and target 1.3200 zone.
Update -
1.3119 was indeed the top - For a few hours anyways- which produced a retrace to the 61.8 Fib before exploding to the upside giving us an hourly close a few pips above the 200 Ema which saw price quickly home in on the 1.3200 area. Still believe this area should hold on first test for a retrace BUT CL - Crude Oils strong surge into the close and what looks to be a SHS on the Hourly USDX does not bode well for short term bears. Of note - A large ACB was a noted buyer of Eur as has been BIS. The same ACB was seen unloading a few at the days highs.
Update -
1.3119 was indeed the top - For a few hours anyways- which produced a retrace to the 61.8 Fib before exploding to the upside giving us an hourly close a few pips above the 200 Ema which saw price quickly home in on the 1.3200 area. Still believe this area should hold on first test for a retrace BUT CL - Crude Oils strong surge into the close and what looks to be a SHS on the Hourly USDX does not bode well for short term bears. Of note - A large ACB was a noted buyer of Eur as has been BIS. The same ACB was seen unloading a few at the days highs.
E-Mini Dow - YM
Similar pattern as the Nasdaq although not as neat. Immediate AB=CD target and Fib ratios come in at 13692. The larger 2 waves structure from 6460 targets 14251.
E-mini Nasdaq - NQ - Into the Zone
Following on from the ES charts yesterday I thought it would be useful to compare the two. Looking at the weekly charts it is strikingly obvious that the Nazdaq is completing the 2nd leg higher of an AB = CD structure.
Leg 1 AB - 1017.75 to 2058.25 or 1040.50 points
Leg 2 CD - 1697.75 to Target at 2738.25.
We can also see that the CD leg is itself constructed of an AB = CD pattern with harmonics.
AB - 1697.75 to 2435.0 (737.25 points)
BC - retracement of 61.8% to 1972.25
Thus ideally the CD leg should complete in the zone of 2709.25 to the 161.8 at 2721.
Clearly we have entered the zone where a reversal is highly possible and I will be looking at the lower frames for reversal signals.
Weekly wide view
Weekly close up
Leg 1 AB - 1017.75 to 2058.25 or 1040.50 points
Leg 2 CD - 1697.75 to Target at 2738.25.
We can also see that the CD leg is itself constructed of an AB = CD pattern with harmonics.
AB - 1697.75 to 2435.0 (737.25 points)
BC - retracement of 61.8% to 1972.25
Thus ideally the CD leg should complete in the zone of 2709.25 to the 161.8 at 2721.
Clearly we have entered the zone where a reversal is highly possible and I will be looking at the lower frames for reversal signals.
Weekly wide view
Weekly close up
Thursday 15 March 2012
Chart Gazing - ES
Whilst I do not normally go out past the daily chart except for UsdJpy.. I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the S+P futures - ES from the top down so to speak.
Monthly -
Bullish with two topside targets at 1437.75 then 1550/60 roughly.
Weekly-
The weekly more clearly identifies the current CD leg of an AB=CD structure. Target is 1437.75.
That level also coincides with the 113 - 127.2 fib extension zone after the BC retracement of 78.6-88.6 and is also the support turned resistance level from the fall in Dec 2007.
It is worth noting that we also may be forming the right shoulder of an SHS formation. Whilst not completely symmetrical the current neckline would come in at 1087. Obviously, if we end up down there then we are definitely in deep trouble as we have been hit by a very large black flying thing... measured move would end up somewhere down near 800... Oh the Mayans will be pleased..
Daily-
Whilst the Monthly and Weekly chart clearly define both direction and targets the daily presents us with how we might reach those targets and where we can join the action.
The previous AB = CD target 1376.75 has clearly been surpassed as has the harmonic patterns. Thus how much higher can we go?
Although I am no elliot wave person, I am always on the look out for the killer third wave ( as I prefer to be on them and not under them).
The current ES Daily chart does look as though we are currently in the 3rd wave of the pattern. As such, this current wave may indeed lead us directly to the weekly target level at 1437.75 if we can break immediate support turned resistance at 1415.50.
From there we can look for a 4th wave retracement back toward the zone defined by the 100 Ema and the breakout level at 1289 for the final and 5th wave to take us into the monthly secondary target above 1550.
The secondary target also comes in at the current up channel resistance.
Monthly -
Bullish with two topside targets at 1437.75 then 1550/60 roughly.
Weekly-
The weekly more clearly identifies the current CD leg of an AB=CD structure. Target is 1437.75.
That level also coincides with the 113 - 127.2 fib extension zone after the BC retracement of 78.6-88.6 and is also the support turned resistance level from the fall in Dec 2007.
It is worth noting that we also may be forming the right shoulder of an SHS formation. Whilst not completely symmetrical the current neckline would come in at 1087. Obviously, if we end up down there then we are definitely in deep trouble as we have been hit by a very large black flying thing... measured move would end up somewhere down near 800... Oh the Mayans will be pleased..
Daily-
Whilst the Monthly and Weekly chart clearly define both direction and targets the daily presents us with how we might reach those targets and where we can join the action.
The previous AB = CD target 1376.75 has clearly been surpassed as has the harmonic patterns. Thus how much higher can we go?
Although I am no elliot wave person, I am always on the look out for the killer third wave ( as I prefer to be on them and not under them).
The current ES Daily chart does look as though we are currently in the 3rd wave of the pattern. As such, this current wave may indeed lead us directly to the weekly target level at 1437.75 if we can break immediate support turned resistance at 1415.50.
From there we can look for a 4th wave retracement back toward the zone defined by the 100 Ema and the breakout level at 1289 for the final and 5th wave to take us into the monthly secondary target above 1550.
The secondary target also comes in at the current up channel resistance.
Loonie Revisited
Previous AB = CD pattern with target at 0.9820 is now considdered invalidated with a close above both the 55 Ema and the 38.2 fib. As such focus shifts to an upside target at 1.0057 which would be slightly above the 113.0 Fib extension after an 88.6//78.6 retracement to 0.9872.
A return back below 0.9872 would again target 0.9820.
Update - Pattern still valid whilst we hold above the 0.9872 low but should we close under the 23.6% Fib at 0.9908 with indicators once more looking a tad soft would expect price to re test the lows.
A return back below 0.9872 would again target 0.9820.
Update - Pattern still valid whilst we hold above the 0.9872 low but should we close under the 23.6% Fib at 0.9908 with indicators once more looking a tad soft would expect price to re test the lows.
Kiwi
Kiwi - 4 Hourly Chart
Bearish with AB = CD target at 0.7910 slightly under the 200.0 Fib extension after an almost 50.0% retrace to point C at 0.8279. Yesterdays break and close under the 408 Ema adds to the downside bias.
At this point only a break and close above the 89 Ema currently at 0.8243 would negate the pattern and turn the focus on previous support now resistance at 0.8320.
Update - Whilst Daily and 4 Hhrly patterns remain valid, the failure to close under the Daily 200 Sma and the subsequent strong bounce warns of near term choppy trading. A break and close above the 4 Hrly 89 Ema or below the Daily 200 Sma will give us the next leg,
Bearish with AB = CD target at 0.7910 slightly under the 200.0 Fib extension after an almost 50.0% retrace to point C at 0.8279. Yesterdays break and close under the 408 Ema adds to the downside bias.
At this point only a break and close above the 89 Ema currently at 0.8243 would negate the pattern and turn the focus on previous support now resistance at 0.8320.
Update - Whilst Daily and 4 Hhrly patterns remain valid, the failure to close under the Daily 200 Sma and the subsequent strong bounce warns of near term choppy trading. A break and close above the 4 Hrly 89 Ema or below the Daily 200 Sma will give us the next leg,
Aud Crosses
Quick look at the Aussie crosses -
EurAud - 4 Hourly Chart
Bullish with upside target at 1.2727. Ideally we need a break and close above 1.2500 to improve the upward momentum with initial target at 1.2588. A break below support at 1.2350 invalidates the pattern and would target the daily support at 1.2200.
Update - Pattern remains valid
GbpAud - 4 Hourly Chart
Daily chart remains bullish with a strong close above the 68 Ema with initial target of 1.5070.
4 Hourly chart however has now completed the current AB=CD formation at 1.5014 and we should now look for a retracement to follow back toward the 1.4870/1.4919 zone before resuming its upward climb. Any further push higher should be capped at channel resistence at 1.5058.
Update - Indeed we did get the retracement expected. Presently the retrace has bounced from just shy of the 61.8 Fib at 1.4870 but whilst we remain below 1.4927 cannot rule out a further move lower to the 200 Ema and channel bottom toward 1.4845 before we resume the upward climb.
AudCad - Daily Chart
The decline continues after breaking support at 1.0476 and now closing below the daily 200 Sma. Ideally the target would be at 1.0226 inbetween the 78.6/88.6 fib retracements. At this point only a break back above previous support now turned resistance would invalidate the current pattern.
Update - The pattern remains valid although the move has been somewhat sidelined with the inability to close below the 200 Sma. A move through resistance at 1.0491 would immediately target the 89 Ema.
EurAud - 4 Hourly Chart
Bullish with upside target at 1.2727. Ideally we need a break and close above 1.2500 to improve the upward momentum with initial target at 1.2588. A break below support at 1.2350 invalidates the pattern and would target the daily support at 1.2200.
Update - Pattern remains valid
GbpAud - 4 Hourly Chart
Daily chart remains bullish with a strong close above the 68 Ema with initial target of 1.5070.
4 Hourly chart however has now completed the current AB=CD formation at 1.5014 and we should now look for a retracement to follow back toward the 1.4870/1.4919 zone before resuming its upward climb. Any further push higher should be capped at channel resistence at 1.5058.
Update - Indeed we did get the retracement expected. Presently the retrace has bounced from just shy of the 61.8 Fib at 1.4870 but whilst we remain below 1.4927 cannot rule out a further move lower to the 200 Ema and channel bottom toward 1.4845 before we resume the upward climb.
AudCad - Daily Chart
The decline continues after breaking support at 1.0476 and now closing below the daily 200 Sma. Ideally the target would be at 1.0226 inbetween the 78.6/88.6 fib retracements. At this point only a break back above previous support now turned resistance would invalidate the current pattern.
Update - The pattern remains valid although the move has been somewhat sidelined with the inability to close below the 200 Sma. A move through resistance at 1.0491 would immediately target the 89 Ema.
AudUsd
The Aussie daily charts failure and close under the 100 Ema suggests that we have begun a bearish CD leg which ideally would target 0.9770. Further confirmation would be a close under the 200 Sma currently at 1.0400 then the up trend support line at 1.0250.
At this point only a break and close above the highs at 1.0855 would invalidate the pattern and re-establish the 1.1026 target in the near term.
Update - The pattern remains valid with further choppy trading expected. The 200 Sma looks key in resuming the decline.
At this point only a break and close above the highs at 1.0855 would invalidate the pattern and re-establish the 1.1026 target in the near term.
Update - The pattern remains valid with further choppy trading expected. The 200 Sma looks key in resuming the decline.
Gold and Silver
Daily charts are playing out as previously mentioned. The only question remains is whether or not we see one last bounce before the Lemmings do their stuff....
Update - Still playing out as expected
Update - Still playing out as expected
Wednesday 14 March 2012
FTSE
Pay close attention to the foot. We have a doji top in place on the Hourly chart and are currently testing the 50% line of the Marabuzo candle. A break and close under 5972 would signal a retrace unfolding with the first area of support at the 26 Ema at 5918. Finally got our break// Price has continued lower breaking the 26 Ema. Support levels can now be found at the Fibs. Ideally, we would need a break and close under the 23.6 at 5930.5 for a deeper decline to ensue toward the150 Sma at 5875. Immediate resistence will be found at the 26 Ema and the original break level at 5972.
Euro & Cable
Couple of patterns playing out in both Cable and EurUsd.
EurUsd - 4 Hourly Chart
AB = CD pattern. After a 50% fib retrace of the AB leg to 1.3290. CD leg targets the 200.0 Fib extension in the 1.2900/1.2910 area. Only close above the 200 Ema would invalidate. Still unfolding with support at 1.3026 now broken.
EurUsd - Hourly Chart
Similarly to the 4 Hourly chart, the Hourly chart also has an AB = CD pattern with similar fib ratios of 50.0//200.0. Currently we have support at 1.3020/30. Below there the target is a little above the 200 extension at 1.2978. Only a close back above the 34 ema would invalidate the pattern. Sell off continues with trend support now broken. 34 Ema remains resistence.
Cable - 4 Hourly Chart
Whilst not an ideal pattern price failed to gain traction above the 400 Ema and has resumed what appears to be a CD extension. Ideally the target zone will be in the 200.0//224.0 Fib extension zone at 1.5525/1.5559 zone. Only a close back above the 400 Ema would invalidate. Overnight price indeed tested the 400 Ema without sucess. Still favour a further move toward target.
Cable - Hourly Chart
AB = CD and 61.8//161.8 targets 1.5512. Only a close above the 156 ema invalidates. As in the 4 Hourly chart, cable overnight saw a test of the 156 Ema but failed to close above it. Immediately, we have a support line at 1.5652 and nearby resistence at the 89 Ema. We need a clean break of support to see a continuation of the pattern. A close above the 156 Ema invalidates the pattern and would target 1.5754.
EurUsd - 4 Hourly Chart
AB = CD pattern. After a 50% fib retrace of the AB leg to 1.3290. CD leg targets the 200.0 Fib extension in the 1.2900/1.2910 area. Only close above the 200 Ema would invalidate. Still unfolding with support at 1.3026 now broken.
EurUsd - Hourly Chart
Similarly to the 4 Hourly chart, the Hourly chart also has an AB = CD pattern with similar fib ratios of 50.0//200.0. Currently we have support at 1.3020/30. Below there the target is a little above the 200 extension at 1.2978. Only a close back above the 34 ema would invalidate the pattern. Sell off continues with trend support now broken. 34 Ema remains resistence.
Cable - 4 Hourly Chart
Whilst not an ideal pattern price failed to gain traction above the 400 Ema and has resumed what appears to be a CD extension. Ideally the target zone will be in the 200.0//224.0 Fib extension zone at 1.5525/1.5559 zone. Only a close back above the 400 Ema would invalidate. Overnight price indeed tested the 400 Ema without sucess. Still favour a further move toward target.
Cable - Hourly Chart
AB = CD and 61.8//161.8 targets 1.5512. Only a close above the 156 ema invalidates. As in the 4 Hourly chart, cable overnight saw a test of the 156 Ema but failed to close above it. Immediately, we have a support line at 1.5652 and nearby resistence at the 89 Ema. We need a clean break of support to see a continuation of the pattern. A close above the 156 Ema invalidates the pattern and would target 1.5754.
EurCad - Head n Shoulder pattern
EurCad SHS formation with target at 1.2615. Neckline at 1.3052. Pattern remains valid, however given we have a daily doji candle with price unable to break the Jan 2011 lows at 1.2875 a little caution is warranted.
Stocks making higher highs on lower volume
Well the idea of stocks topping and heading lower certainly was WRONG.. But I still cant shake the feeling that this current rally will fall apart in spectacular fashion albeit short and sharp. I am not sure what will trigger it but given that we are surging higher on what appears to be fumes as far as daily volumes go, it should not be too far off.
From a technical perspective the weekly ES chart clearly is in full bull mode targeting a measured move to 1436 right into the May 2008 highs. The Daily chart is also bullish but after breaking through the 161.8 Fib extension point at 1377 the next target I have is the 200.0 at 1430.75.. At present levels I am unwilling to chase this market higher and will watch the 4 hourly chart for entries to trade a retrace and build a long position at better levels.
From a trading perspective I am short at current levels with a relatively tight stop above 1400.50 the 161.8 Fib Looking for a test of the 50% Marabuzo Line at 1389.50 ( Daily pivot at 1390). A break and close under that line would encourage the idea of a retracement unfolding with support levels at 1379.5 ( S1) 1376.75 ( previous breakout level), 1367.5 ( Hourly 200 Ema) and finally 1360.5 the AB=CD target.
SLOWEST DAY I HAVE EVER SEEN....... After 17 hours we finally had a look at the 50 line only to bounce off it.. Still favour a move lower but will wait for a break and close under the 50 Line to re enter..
From a technical perspective the weekly ES chart clearly is in full bull mode targeting a measured move to 1436 right into the May 2008 highs. The Daily chart is also bullish but after breaking through the 161.8 Fib extension point at 1377 the next target I have is the 200.0 at 1430.75.. At present levels I am unwilling to chase this market higher and will watch the 4 hourly chart for entries to trade a retrace and build a long position at better levels.
From a trading perspective I am short at current levels with a relatively tight stop above 1400.50 the 161.8 Fib Looking for a test of the 50% Marabuzo Line at 1389.50 ( Daily pivot at 1390). A break and close under that line would encourage the idea of a retracement unfolding with support levels at 1379.5 ( S1) 1376.75 ( previous breakout level), 1367.5 ( Hourly 200 Ema) and finally 1360.5 the AB=CD target.
SLOWEST DAY I HAVE EVER SEEN....... After 17 hours we finally had a look at the 50 line only to bounce off it.. Still favour a move lower but will wait for a break and close under the 50 Line to re enter..
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