Wednesday, 14 March 2012

Stocks making higher highs on lower volume

Well the idea of stocks topping and heading lower certainly was WRONG.. But I still cant shake the feeling that this current rally will fall apart in spectacular fashion albeit short and sharp. I am not sure what will trigger it but given that we are surging higher on what appears to be fumes as far as daily volumes go, it should not be too far off.

From a technical perspective the weekly ES chart clearly is in full bull mode targeting a measured move to 1436 right into the May 2008 highs. The Daily chart is also bullish but after breaking through the 161.8 Fib extension point at 1377 the next target I have is the 200.0 at 1430.75.. At present levels I am unwilling to chase this market higher and will watch the 4 hourly chart for entries to trade a retrace and build a long position at better levels.

From a trading perspective I am short at current levels with a relatively tight stop above 1400.50 the 161.8 Fib Looking for a test of the 50% Marabuzo Line at 1389.50 ( Daily pivot at 1390). A break and close under that line would encourage the idea of a retracement unfolding with support levels at  1379.5 ( S1) 1376.75 ( previous breakout level), 1367.5  ( Hourly 200 Ema) and finally 1360.5 the AB=CD target.

SLOWEST DAY I HAVE EVER SEEN....... After 17 hours we finally had a look at the 50 line only to bounce off it.. Still favour a move lower but will wait for a break and close under the 50 Line to re enter.. 



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