Aussie

Stops gone as price breaks and closes under the 200 Ema Hourly. Thus far the 200 Sma Hourly has stopped the decline ahead of the more important Inverted SHS neckline at 1.0537. Immediately, price needs to overcome the 50 line at 1.0573 on an hourly closing basis to stabalise with next resistance at 1.0603.

There are now two possible new scenarios unfolding -

1. Current Inverted SHS continues to play out with target at 1.0670.
2. Much larger Inverted SHS currently forming the right shoulder toward 1.0485. Measured move would be of the magnitude of +226 points.

Update - And No. 2 looks like it may be a winner.. 1.0440/60 would be the ideal area for a bounce and run back to the neckline. Given the SHS formations now on YM/FTSE/ASX200 further Risk-Off pressure may come to bare.. Only a sharp sell off in the Eur and Gbp particularly against the Aud and Kiwi would slow the AudUsd and Nzd/Usd decline enabling a valid right shoulder. Daily 200 Sma lies at 1.0402. A break there and we again look to our medium term Daily Target the AB=CD target at 0.9770.


Update 2 -  Right shoulder of the pattern indeed stopped and reversed in the indicated zone. 4 Hourly close above the 23.6 Fib encourages the upward view. Confirmation of a stronger rally to the neckline and beyond on a close above the 50 Line at 1.0536.