Current retrace should have finalised at the 61.8 fib 1.3119, also the equal move of the minor retrace 12-13th March. Downside target remains 1.2978. Only an hourly close above the 200 Ema would invalidate the downside target and target 1.3200 zone.
Update -
1.3119 was indeed the top - For a few hours anyways- which produced a retrace to the 61.8 Fib before exploding to the upside giving us an hourly close a few pips above the 200 Ema which saw price quickly home in on the 1.3200 area. Still believe this area should hold on first test for a retrace BUT CL - Crude Oils strong surge into the close and what looks to be a SHS on the Hourly USDX does not bode well for short term bears. Of note - A large ACB was a noted buyer of Eur as has been BIS. The same ACB was seen unloading a few at the days highs.
Friday, 16 March 2012
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