Still looking for a move lower in the ES initially toward the 1300 level as mentioned previously. Last weeks rally stalled below the previous AB=CD and fib confluence target zone of 1368.75//1378.25 and also at the 161.8 Fib extension of the October - November 2011 corrective decline.
Adding support to this view we now appear to have the makings of a SHS pattern where we are currently forming the right shoulder. The neckline is currently at 1339. The SHS measured move comes in extremely close to our 1300 target. R/R apears good with shorts around current levels and stops above 1378.25 .
Only a break and close above the previous highs at 1377 would invalidate the bearish outlook.
YM - Mini Dow futures
Exact same structures as the ES. Initial target 12400.
ENQ - Mini Nasdaq futures
The Nasdaq has a tendency of always leading on the way up but dragging its heels on the declines before catching up in spectacular form.. We now have clear patterns on the daily frames for the ES and YM so I thought it would be better to have a look at the 4 hourly ENQ to confirm the patterns above.
Fridays hammer at the highs and todays lower open, looks to confirm that point C is now in. The point C high at 2652.0 came in a tad above the 100.0 Fib of the AB leg and as such the fib reciprocal should ideally come in a tad under the 100.0 fib.
The ideal target of this decline would be 74.75 ( A-B) from point C at 2577.25 which is a little above the 100.0 fib.. confluence again.
No comments:
Post a Comment