Thoughts for the coming week

It was a tumultuous week for trading, correlations were busted left, right and centre. Comments regarding the Greek bailout had us trading all over the shop,  with some pairs breaking immediate daily trend such as Aussie + Canada, whilst others remained in trend.

In my experience when the two smaller dollars break, 7 out of 10 times you better be paying attention as they do have a strong tendency to lead. That being said, the weekly charts are strongly bearish so I would not be expecting that to change anytime soon.

Eur/Usd
Whilst the Euro remains in a strong weekly downtrend and in daily downtrend under resistance at 1.3770. Strong buying has emerged ahead of the 1.3500 area just above the 61.8 weekly fib at 1.3485.
Trix has crossed up with bullish divergence. Should the low already be in place , I will be looking for a retracement similar to that of december 2009 which comes in slightly above the weekly downtrend res. at 1.3900.

Trade wise I will be looking to buy dips near 1.3550 with stops under 1.3450. The hourly charts will be my guide for exact timing and rate of entry.

Cable
Similar to its Euro counterpart, Cable emains in the weekly downtrend with the res line sitting at 1.6270.Fridays close slightly above the daily downtrend is also a warning that bulls have begun to take control. Also of note was the bounce off the channel support. Should cable indeed be in retracement mode and copy the retracement seen in dec-jan tgt would be 1.6164 slightly above the 61.8 fib.

With this in mind, keep a close eye on Eur/Gbp as an accelerated downward move maybe unfolding, thus, giving support for an extended retracement in cable.

 

Aussie

Aussie has broken out of its daily down trend after finding good support at  the  daily 200 sma. Shold this retracement copy that of the dec - jan rally , we should be looking at a tgt of 0.9175 just north of the 78.6 fib.

Trading wise looking to buy dips along the 4 hrly support line currently at 0.8800.

 

Swissy

Swissy remains in the daily uptrend with trendline support at 1.0660. Like the other pairs should a top be in place a retracement toward 1.0450 should be unfolding.

We sold 1/4 unit at 1.0785 with stop at 1.0875. I will be watching the hourly charts to add to this position.