Thursday, 18 February 2010

Update

Another fairly lackluster Asian session and an initial move in London with little follow through. The most interesting formations on the charts are a possible triple top in the Dollar Index - USDX at 80.82, Double top in Usd/Chf at 1.0826 and Double bottom in Eur/Usd at 1.3530/40.

First up to our open positions. Euro currently in a 1.3540/1.3595 range and currently sits a little below our entry after having fallen to 1.3540 on  the London Open. Good sized buyers  lie in wait ahead of 1.3500 large option interest and minor 1.3525 interest. I will be looking  to add to Eur longs near 30 with the stop moved under 1.3495 on the whole position. On the top side  should Eur fail again at 1.3595 I will move the 80 long  stop to entry and await price action.

Usd/Chf,  sits in  a  1.0770/1.0826 range, currently at break even. similar to Eur I am still confident in our short and will hold that position for the  time  being.

Gold staged a nice bounce off the 200 lwma moving average and uptrend support line and expect price to continue higher toward 1111/1112 initially. Silver has chopped either side of  the  hrly 200 ema with support at 15.60 and res at 15.90. 


Elsewhere, Cable again has been  the  whipping boy after less  than impressive comments from BOE’s Barker and  poor UK public finances data was released. Still bekieve we will see strong  buying interest  emerge  ahead of 1.5500/30 area for a long trade which  should  tgt  the  hrly 300 lwma.

Aussie managed  to  hold  a  tad  under  the  0.8940 area but remains  caught inbetween  the  4 hrly 400 ema and the 100 smooth. a break and close of either one  may indicate  the  next strong move unfolding. Watch for correlation  between the Aussie, Gold and Silver in regards to our  open positions.

Yen crosses remain  in  their perspective  choppy ranges  with only  the  Eur/Jpy  worth monitoring. Currently sitting  right on  the  300 lwma. As a friend of mine  pointed out yesterday, there are large option expiries in the US stocks  on  friday, what maybe unfolding is that given  the  low volumes  seen  in  both  the  S+P and Dow, players  may  be  holding  the indicies  artificially  high into  the  option expiries thus expiring  them worthless... at  that  point  we  may  very  well  see  stocks  fall  sharply bringing  out Risk Off  yen  buyers  once  more. Aud/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy remain in their upward channels . Krrp an eye on Gbp/Jpy on  the  hourly with  a  break  and  close back  over  the  100ema triggering  a  small  long  position.

Thats  kind of  it for  now, I will update  anything  else  I see  as  the  day  unfolds including  open  position  management.

Open Trades

Eur/Usd - Long 1 unit @ 1.3580 stop 1.3495
above 1.3600 move  stop to 1.3550
above 1.3620 move stop to entry
tgt 1.3695
Looking to Add @ 1.3530 stop 1.3495

Usd/Chf - Short 1 unit @ 1.0800 stop 1.0850
below 1.0765 move stop 1.0830
below 1.0750 move stop to entry
tgt 1.0715
Looking to add 1.0825/30 stop 1.0850

Eur/Chf - Long 3/4 unit @ 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750

Open Orders

Spot Gold - Xau/Usd Buy 1/2 unit @ 1100 stop 1090 offered. Reverse to short on break and close under the 200 lwma.

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