4 hrly chart - A minor AB CD measured move targeting 1.5580 was met friday after price broke the daily support line at 1.5640. Indicators are bearish, but slow stochastic is warning of a retracement. A much stronger warning however, is the formation of the closing 4 hrly hammer candle off the weeks lows.
the last two times we saw a similar candle was 30th december at 1.5870 and the 1st of feb at 1.5920. Both resulted in retracements of 50 to 61.8%.
Looking at the overall bearish structure should the retracement copy that of the previous monday then the retracement should look to target 1.5775 area , slightly above the 38.2 fib.
Hourly Chart - Charts have moved into bullish mode with trend resistance at 1.5675 also 23.6 fib.
How to Play this - A retracement is imminent should the res. at 1.5675 give way. I will look to exit the third 1/4 of our 1.6015 short on any innitial pullback from the trend res around the 1.5600 lvl. The remaining 1/4 I will allow to run until the trend turns bullish on the daily charts.
1 comment:
That's great analysis Bear.
I am really hoping for a strong retracement back towards towards 1.5820 so that I can clear my longs at B/E.
thanks
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