Being the last week of summer holidays, I will be taking off for the week. If anything looks as though shorts will be the trade of today,, Eur/Aud/Gbp, Eur/Jpy...Indicators are rolling over. Also look to trade off the hourly 220sma Usd/Chf.
Good Luck and remember, use stops....It is always better to be out of a bad position than sitting staring at the screen wishing you were out.
Monday, 22 February 2010
Saturday, 20 February 2010
well that was the week that was..
No late friday blood in the stocks..still , once the stock jockeys catch on to the fact that the Fed has started to drain their honey pot.. they will fall sure enough....lock down anything you have with stops for the weekend and rest up... Its looking as though 2010 will be the year of the Bear...and as Bear´s have more brains than cattle.. if things dont go to plan, just turn you screens upside down and sell anyways !
Have a great weekend
Have a great weekend
Usd still under pressure
Usd still under pressure as positions being reversed quicker than a dodgy vindalo.
Only trade I can see is selling the YNH0 above 10400 .. it smells of a late friday rout..
Sell 1 unit @ 10400 stop 10450..looking for initial 10320. SET SHORT @ 10.400
If it falls hard also look to sell 1 unit Aud/Jpy and Eur/Jpy..Ill report when I act as quick as possible
Only trade I can see is selling the YNH0 above 10400 .. it smells of a late friday rout..
Sell 1 unit @ 10400 stop 10450..looking for initial 10320. SET SHORT @ 10.400
If it falls hard also look to sell 1 unit Aud/Jpy and Eur/Jpy..Ill report when I act as quick as possible
ALG does it again
Shorted Aud at 0.8951, shorted Eur at 0.3532 and bought Usd/Chf at 1.0818...I dont know how he does it.. but he is good.http://www.algforex.com/
Levels to watch for today
Short term charts are looking for a partial retracement of yesterdays move, with the main trend back in the Dollar´s favour. You can look to either play the retracement with tight stops, then look to build trades in the main direction of the trend. What ever you decide, please, please´please use stops...
I think the stocks will play a major role in FX trading today with a huge amout of option expiries due. Should it be the case that traders are holding the stockmarket higher to ensure options expire worthless then we should see the stocks dive after expiry. If that is the case Yen crosses should fall hard with Aud/Jpy leading the charge.
Eur/Usd 1.3547
Usd/Chf 1.0895/1.0817/1.0746
Gbp/Usd 1.5467
Aud/Usd 0.8951/0.8875
Nzd/Usd 0.6985
Usd/Cad 1.0533/1.0465
I think the stocks will play a major role in FX trading today with a huge amout of option expiries due. Should it be the case that traders are holding the stockmarket higher to ensure options expire worthless then we should see the stocks dive after expiry. If that is the case Yen crosses should fall hard with Aud/Jpy leading the charge.
Eur/Usd 1.3547
Usd/Chf 1.0895/1.0817/1.0746
Gbp/Usd 1.5467
Aud/Usd 0.8951/0.8875
Nzd/Usd 0.6985
Usd/Cad 1.0533/1.0465
Friday, 19 February 2010
Closed trades
Closed yesterdays late trades for a little profit in Crude and Copper, took a 10 pip loss on the Aussie. Usd/Cad I´ll hold a little longer to see how it reacts at the hrly 300 ema.. a failure and i will reverse to short.
Sorry was out yesterday afternoon
As every fulltime trader working from home knows, there are interuptions at every turn...especially when its school holidays. Yesterday was no exception. The surprise announcement by the Fed, has turned the market on its ear. Anyone who tells you they saw this coming and is not surprised, is a liar... Yeh, OK, maybe in the second Qtr.. but on a friday morning in Asia...naahhh... Black Swan event more likes...which is why we always use stops...they are our seat belts.. or airbags if u want to get all 21st century on me.
As I arrived back to the house, a group of relo´s and friends were sitting up by the pool right next to my office, They asked me why, and what were all the sounds eminating at ever increasing tones coming from the office...luckily I came in to check.... I managed to sell some Crude Oil and Copper as they seemed to be lagging gold and Silver. I also sold some Aussie on the break of the ma..not so good..currently im down 10 pips and going to close that. Our Eur/Usd long from 1.3550 was stopped at b/e for no loss, but we gave up what profit we were sitting on..Yes, yes, I know I should have trailed the stop... shoulda coulda woulda, DIDN´T...
On a brighter note though, I also placed an order to buy Usd/Cad @ 1.0410 stop 1.0388 from an ALG reco.. gotta hand it to him.. when he gets it right he gets it really right..
It seems that the only reason the Dollar is not a great deal higher this morning is because the PBOC has been seen selling USD against nearly every major pairing throughout the Asian and London sessions.
I havnt gone into the details as to why the Fed raised the dscount rate,but, my first thought is that this was a politicaly motivated move ahead of Burntcakes´s appearance before congress next week. The Obama administration is hell bent on reducing, if not, eliminating leverage in the financial markets and the Fed by its actions has just shown that they are on the same team...well. they are acting like they are on the same side..you and I both know that isn´t true.
As far as trading goes, its back to the technicals to see what we can find..personally, I think we see some sort of retracement of yesterdays move then it will be back to the same ..a little more later.
As I arrived back to the house, a group of relo´s and friends were sitting up by the pool right next to my office, They asked me why, and what were all the sounds eminating at ever increasing tones coming from the office...luckily I came in to check.... I managed to sell some Crude Oil and Copper as they seemed to be lagging gold and Silver. I also sold some Aussie on the break of the ma..not so good..currently im down 10 pips and going to close that. Our Eur/Usd long from 1.3550 was stopped at b/e for no loss, but we gave up what profit we were sitting on..Yes, yes, I know I should have trailed the stop... shoulda coulda woulda, DIDN´T...
On a brighter note though, I also placed an order to buy Usd/Cad @ 1.0410 stop 1.0388 from an ALG reco.. gotta hand it to him.. when he gets it right he gets it really right..
It seems that the only reason the Dollar is not a great deal higher this morning is because the PBOC has been seen selling USD against nearly every major pairing throughout the Asian and London sessions.
I havnt gone into the details as to why the Fed raised the dscount rate,but, my first thought is that this was a politicaly motivated move ahead of Burntcakes´s appearance before congress next week. The Obama administration is hell bent on reducing, if not, eliminating leverage in the financial markets and the Fed by its actions has just shown that they are on the same team...well. they are acting like they are on the same side..you and I both know that isn´t true.
As far as trading goes, its back to the technicals to see what we can find..personally, I think we see some sort of retracement of yesterdays move then it will be back to the same ..a little more later.
AS the US 10´s get smashed
The Usd/Jpy explodes higher, taking the Yen crosses along for the ride. Holding the same positions with stops to entry. will close higher eur and 1/2 usdchf if break points are violated..1.0408 has held usd/cad forming a triple bottom there...with gold holding the previous highs.
As I write stopped flat usdchf and closed eur long @ 80 at 95.. just 1.3550 long stop at entry..
Heres why the Bonds got carded according to Jaime over at ForexLive. Great comment Jaime, thanks.
As I write stopped flat usdchf and closed eur long @ 80 at 95.. just 1.3550 long stop at entry..
Heres why the Bonds got carded according to Jaime over at ForexLive. Great comment Jaime, thanks.
Update - Watching the USDX - Dollar Index
Triple top in place held nicely and the fall has started. Next level to watch will be the hrly 200 sma @ 80.26, a break and close on the hour under there will see the downward move in the Dollar accelerate.
Targets for our short Usd/Chf and Long Eur/Usd should be the hrly 220 sma.
Targets for our short Usd/Chf and Long Eur/Usd should be the hrly 220 sma.
Oh my lord...
Talk about the market testing my conviction.. possy´s been in and out of the money more times than Brittany in rehab. Still USDX under the triple top so sticking with my view.
Eur/Usd
I bought more Eur/Usd @ 1.3550 stop at entry on the add, watching 1.3598 break to move stops to entry on entire long position.
Thursday, 18 February 2010
GBP - Beware
Just reading an article that places the GBP in quite a nasty looking picture..
The yield on Britain’s 10-year gilt just shot up to about 4.2 per cent, according to Reuters data.
Unfortunately you can’t see it in the below Bloomberg charts, since the American newswire appears to be using a March 2019 benchmark (Reuters is using a 2020 one), but they should give you some idea.
Using the 4.2 per cent Reuters yield, the spread between 10-year UK gilts and German bunds is now about 100bps. Oh dear.
The jump is probably down to just-released UK deficit data. Net borrowing at the UK Treasury was over £9bn higher in January than a year earlier, while the deficit was £4.3bn compared with a £5.3bn surplus the same time last year.
Running a deficit in the first month of the new year is rather unusual for British public finances…
As Gary Jenkins at Evolution Securities puts it:
The UK posted its first January budget deficit since records began in 1993; the numbers are horrendous. January is the biggest tax collecting month and therefore usually shows a budget surplus. The deficit of £4.3bn is against an expected surplus of £2.6bn. The UK deficit now looks on course to overshoot the Pre-Budget Report’s estimate by some £10bn, and any underfunding this year will add to next year’s already high borrowing requirement. The estimate was for £213bn of gilt issuance in Fiscal 2010/2011 before today’s release. That compares to £225.1bn of gilt issuance this financial year, but this year’s supply was eased by the Bank of England buying about £180bn of gilts through its Asset Purchase Facility, whereas next year’s issuance has to be absorbed in full by the market, a more than fivefold increase in issuance net of QE. Thus it is likely that the QE program will be increased. With large budget deficits in other countries the UK will have to compete for funds and the recent support for Greece from the EU may lead to investors demanding higher yields to hold UK debt as the higher yielding weaker Eurozone countries could be seen as having an implicit guarantee from stronger Eurozone members, although clearly this has not yet been fully tested and uncertainty abounds. 10 year Greek government bonds currently yield 6.5%, the Portuguese yield is around 4.65% and 10 year Gilts trade at 4.20% While it is still more likely than not that the rating agencies will wait until after the general election to put any pressure on the AAA/Aaa ratings these numbers are so bad that we cannot rule out them taking a look at the rating pre election. At least HM Revenue and Customs can look forward to higher than usual revenues in August when banks are due to pay the 50% bonus tax estimated of up to £5bn, well ahead of the £550m allowed for in the PBR….
The yield on Britain’s 10-year gilt just shot up to about 4.2 per cent, according to Reuters data.
Unfortunately you can’t see it in the below Bloomberg charts, since the American newswire appears to be using a March 2019 benchmark (Reuters is using a 2020 one), but they should give you some idea.
Using the 4.2 per cent Reuters yield, the spread between 10-year UK gilts and German bunds is now about 100bps. Oh dear.
The jump is probably down to just-released UK deficit data. Net borrowing at the UK Treasury was over £9bn higher in January than a year earlier, while the deficit was £4.3bn compared with a £5.3bn surplus the same time last year.
Running a deficit in the first month of the new year is rather unusual for British public finances…
As Gary Jenkins at Evolution Securities puts it:
The UK posted its first January budget deficit since records began in 1993; the numbers are horrendous. January is the biggest tax collecting month and therefore usually shows a budget surplus. The deficit of £4.3bn is against an expected surplus of £2.6bn. The UK deficit now looks on course to overshoot the Pre-Budget Report’s estimate by some £10bn, and any underfunding this year will add to next year’s already high borrowing requirement. The estimate was for £213bn of gilt issuance in Fiscal 2010/2011 before today’s release. That compares to £225.1bn of gilt issuance this financial year, but this year’s supply was eased by the Bank of England buying about £180bn of gilts through its Asset Purchase Facility, whereas next year’s issuance has to be absorbed in full by the market, a more than fivefold increase in issuance net of QE. Thus it is likely that the QE program will be increased. With large budget deficits in other countries the UK will have to compete for funds and the recent support for Greece from the EU may lead to investors demanding higher yields to hold UK debt as the higher yielding weaker Eurozone countries could be seen as having an implicit guarantee from stronger Eurozone members, although clearly this has not yet been fully tested and uncertainty abounds. 10 year Greek government bonds currently yield 6.5%, the Portuguese yield is around 4.65% and 10 year Gilts trade at 4.20% While it is still more likely than not that the rating agencies will wait until after the general election to put any pressure on the AAA/Aaa ratings these numbers are so bad that we cannot rule out them taking a look at the rating pre election. At least HM Revenue and Customs can look forward to higher than usual revenues in August when banks are due to pay the 50% bonus tax estimated of up to £5bn, well ahead of the £550m allowed for in the PBR….
oops
I have no idea what I did...u have to highlight the text in the Update below, to read it.. sorry abt that..
Update
Another fairly lackluster Asian session and an initial move in London with little follow through. The most interesting formations on the charts are a possible triple top in the Dollar Index - USDX at 80.82, Double top in Usd/Chf at 1.0826 and Double bottom in Eur/Usd at 1.3530/40.
First up to our open positions. Euro currently in a 1.3540/1.3595 range and currently sits a little below our entry after having fallen to 1.3540 on the London Open. Good sized buyers lie in wait ahead of 1.3500 large option interest and minor 1.3525 interest. I will be looking to add to Eur longs near 30 with the stop moved under 1.3495 on the whole position. On the top side should Eur fail again at 1.3595 I will move the 80 long stop to entry and await price action.
Usd/Chf, sits in a 1.0770/1.0826 range, currently at break even. similar to Eur I am still confident in our short and will hold that position for the time being.
Gold staged a nice bounce off the 200 lwma moving average and uptrend support line and expect price to continue higher toward 1111/1112 initially. Silver has chopped either side of the hrly 200 ema with support at 15.60 and res at 15.90.
Elsewhere, Cable again has been the whipping boy after less than impressive comments from BOE’s Barker and poor UK public finances data was released. Still bekieve we will see strong buying interest emerge ahead of 1.5500/30 area for a long trade which should tgt the hrly 300 lwma.
Aussie managed to hold a tad under the 0.8940 area but remains caught inbetween the 4 hrly 400 ema and the 100 smooth. a break and close of either one may indicate the next strong move unfolding. Watch for correlation between the Aussie, Gold and Silver in regards to our open positions.
Yen crosses remain in their perspective choppy ranges with only the Eur/Jpy worth monitoring. Currently sitting right on the 300 lwma. As a friend of mine pointed out yesterday, there are large option expiries in the US stocks on friday, what maybe unfolding is that given the low volumes seen in both the S+P and Dow, players may be holding the indicies artificially high into the option expiries thus expiring them worthless... at that point we may very well see stocks fall sharply bringing out Risk Off yen buyers once more. Aud/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy remain in their upward channels . Krrp an eye on Gbp/Jpy on the hourly with a break and close back over the 100ema triggering a small long position.
Thats kind of it for now, I will update anything else I see as the day unfolds including open position management.
Open Trades
Eur/Usd - Long 1 unit @ 1.3580 stop 1.3495
above 1.3600 move stop to 1.3550
above 1.3620 move stop to entry
tgt 1.3695
Looking to Add @ 1.3530 stop 1.3495
Usd/Chf - Short 1 unit @ 1.0800 stop 1.0850
below 1.0765 move stop 1.0830
below 1.0750 move stop to entry
tgt 1.0715
Looking to add 1.0825/30 stop 1.0850
Eur/Chf - Long 3/4 unit @ 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
Open Orders
Spot Gold - Xau/Usd Buy 1/2 unit @ 1100 stop 1090 offered. Reverse to short on break and close under the 200 lwma.
Eur and Chf management
Eur/Usd - Long 1 unit @ 1.3580 stop 1.3530
above 1.3600 move stop to 1.3550
above 1.3620 move stop to entry
tgt 1.3695
Usd/Chf Short 1 unit @ 1.0800 stop 1.0850
below 1.0765 move stop 1.0830
below 1.0750 move stop to entry
tgt 1.0715
above 1.3600 move stop to 1.3550
above 1.3620 move stop to entry
tgt 1.3695
Usd/Chf Short 1 unit @ 1.0800 stop 1.0850
below 1.0765 move stop 1.0830
below 1.0750 move stop to entry
tgt 1.0715
Eur and Chf
Eur/Usd -
looking to buy 1 unit @ 1.3580 stop 1.3530 tgt 1.3695 LONG
Usd/Chf -
looking to sell 1 unit @ 1.0800 stop 1.0850 tgt 1.0715 SHORT
As I won´t be around to watch, I will just set these trades tonight. Other levels to watch.
Aud/Usd - watch 0.8940 for a buy, if things work that should correlate with Gold and a fall in Usd/Cad.
Eur/Jpy - break and close under hrly 300 lwms for short.
Spot Gold - break and close under hrly 200 lwma short, buy bounce stop reverse on break with indicators.
Cable - break and close above hrly 300 lwma long tgt 1.5765
looking to buy 1 unit @ 1.3580 stop 1.3530 tgt 1.3695 LONG
Usd/Chf -
looking to sell 1 unit @ 1.0800 stop 1.0850 tgt 1.0715 SHORT
As I won´t be around to watch, I will just set these trades tonight. Other levels to watch.
Aud/Usd - watch 0.8940 for a buy, if things work that should correlate with Gold and a fall in Usd/Cad.
Eur/Jpy - break and close under hrly 300 lwms for short.
Spot Gold - break and close under hrly 200 lwma short, buy bounce stop reverse on break with indicators.
Cable - break and close above hrly 300 lwma long tgt 1.5765
Update
Looking very much like Euro and Chf want to retest the daily trend break. Hourly 220 sma´s are currently holding up preceedings, once broken we should see price head towards the old res now support. Gbp is being held up by a weaker Eur/Gbp, so not much to do on that one.
USDX also being held at the hrly 200 sma and daily R1.
Still with Gold, Aussie and Canada holding up near their respective highs against the Dollar, I am not looking for a dramatic turn around in the current short term retracement structure.
Yen and crosses as per previous update
USDX also being held at the hrly 200 sma and daily R1.
Still with Gold, Aussie and Canada holding up near their respective highs against the Dollar, I am not looking for a dramatic turn around in the current short term retracement structure.
Yen and crosses as per previous update
Wednesday, 17 February 2010
Yen and crosses
Usd/Jpy held at first touch res line at 90.73 BROKEN watch for price to begin to top or pop. A break of res will target 90.92 ACHIEVED then previous highs at 91.25.
Yen crosses also now approaching their respective channel res.
Aud/Jpy - 61.8 fib channel res and previous highs at 82.35 area, stoch & rsi in overbought area.
Looking for a short when price action confirms.
Yen crosses also now approaching their respective channel res.
Aud/Jpy - 61.8 fib channel res and previous highs at 82.35 area, stoch & rsi in overbought area.
Looking for a short when price action confirms.
Eur/Jpy - Channel res approaching at 125.00. Indicators are still bullish, but watching stoch for possible turn. Aud/Jpy has led this move thus I will take my lead from that.
Gbp/Jpy - Looking much stronger than the other two, with 4 hrly cross and close above the 100/90 ema bands a bullish sign. Will watch the channel res BROKEN , with a break targetting the 50 fib and 220 lwma. Indicators are also supporting the bullish outlook , but I will be watching for a failure at the ma with indicators turning over for a short trade.
Very quiet in Asia and morning London trade
All fairly quiet today. Retracement is still underway. If anything, looking at the charts I think we may see the Dollar retrace back a little higher first, before a resumption of the main daily retrace, thus, you could look to play both sides.
I would be carefull with counter trend trades today, as the data cupboard is quite heavy out of the US - ForexLive Eco Calendar. Dont get caught.
Technically, Eur and cable hourly charts have turned over -ve so looking for a dip there back toward 1.3700 and 1.5700. Usd/Chf has bounced nicely and looks to tgt the 220 sma hrly. Aud and Canada continue to consolidate at or close to the 61.8 fib in miniscule ranges with indicators not much help.
On the Yen front, am watching minor up channel res at 90.70 just above the 90.67 the 78.6 fib reatracement level. Previous retrace saw price reverse off the 78.6. Watch the slow stoch 13,5,5 and RSI 14 for a confirmation of a short trade. Aud/Jpy and Eur/Jpy are both pretty similar here, possibly a little higher before a minor retracement lower back into the up channel support located at 80.56 and Eur/Jpy heading back to the hrly 300 lwma. Gbp/Jpy continues in its drift northward with the channel 140.80/143.20 and currently sits just above the 4 hrly 100/90 ema bands.
As far as open trades go we have not much on presently having personally missed the start of this retrace with the ma´s gettin blown apart with little or no pullback whatsoever.
Open Trades
Usd/Chf - short 1/4 unit @ 1.0785 stop 1.0785
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
Closed Trades
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - SQR
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45 Reversed @ 15.40
Reversed to 1/2 unit long @ 15.70 Closed at 15.75
I would be carefull with counter trend trades today, as the data cupboard is quite heavy out of the US - ForexLive Eco Calendar. Dont get caught.
Technically, Eur and cable hourly charts have turned over -ve so looking for a dip there back toward 1.3700 and 1.5700. Usd/Chf has bounced nicely and looks to tgt the 220 sma hrly. Aud and Canada continue to consolidate at or close to the 61.8 fib in miniscule ranges with indicators not much help.
On the Yen front, am watching minor up channel res at 90.70 just above the 90.67 the 78.6 fib reatracement level. Previous retrace saw price reverse off the 78.6. Watch the slow stoch 13,5,5 and RSI 14 for a confirmation of a short trade. Aud/Jpy and Eur/Jpy are both pretty similar here, possibly a little higher before a minor retracement lower back into the up channel support located at 80.56 and Eur/Jpy heading back to the hrly 300 lwma. Gbp/Jpy continues in its drift northward with the channel 140.80/143.20 and currently sits just above the 4 hrly 100/90 ema bands.
As far as open trades go we have not much on presently having personally missed the start of this retrace with the ma´s gettin blown apart with little or no pullback whatsoever.
Open Trades
Usd/Chf - short 1/4 unit @ 1.0785 stop 1.0785
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
Closed Trades
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - SQR
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45 Reversed @ 15.40
Reversed to 1/2 unit long @ 15.70 Closed at 15.75
Reversal underway part 2
Well support and resistance levels have been broken, ma´s broken but... there really hasn´t been much in the way of significant follow through as yet in the currencies.
Most notable though is that even with Crude, Gold and Silver having surged higher on the Dollar weakness.. The Aussie and Canada are barely changed perched at there respective highs... ;Maybe just them waiting for the others to play catch-up..
Looking to buy 1/2 unit Eur/Usd on a close above the hrly 220 sma and add 1/2 Unit to our 1.0785 Usd/Chf short on a close under the hrly 220 sma.
Most notable though is that even with Crude, Gold and Silver having surged higher on the Dollar weakness.. The Aussie and Canada are barely changed perched at there respective highs... ;Maybe just them waiting for the others to play catch-up..
Looking to buy 1/2 unit Eur/Usd on a close above the hrly 220 sma and add 1/2 Unit to our 1.0785 Usd/Chf short on a close under the hrly 220 sma.
Here we go...
Dollar reversing the bounce watch USDX at the ma, Eur/Jpy breaking up through ma, Eur/Usd breaking trend , with Usd/Chf approaching support.
Dollar a little stronger
Whilst the Greek conundrum still haunts the markets, the buck remains a little stronger against the majors after US data printed stronger than expected, helping the USDX bounce off the hrly 200 sma. The data also pushed commodities higher putting a bid tone into the Aussie and Canada.
Not a heck of alot to do now, with correlations still amiss. Although, both Aud/Usd and Aud/Jpy have broken and closed above their respective ma´s, I prefer to wait as indicators are mixed and slow stoch remains in an overbought state.
Keep an eye on trend res at 1.3670 Eur/Usd and 1.0705 Usd/Chf.
Not a heck of alot to do now, with correlations still amiss. Although, both Aud/Usd and Aud/Jpy have broken and closed above their respective ma´s, I prefer to wait as indicators are mixed and slow stoch remains in an overbought state.
Keep an eye on trend res at 1.3670 Eur/Usd and 1.0705 Usd/Chf.
Tuesday, 16 February 2010
European stocks and bonds are getting nervous
FX markets are quiet thus far, but talk is swirling around the markets of a possible margin call or unwind of the swap transactions enetered into by Greece, should either Greece or Titlos PLC, the SPV it used in the Goldman designed CCS´s - Cross Currency Swaps be further downgraded by Moody´s.
Risk - Off is beginning to show its face again with both gold and silver reversing from their highs. The long silver trade at 15.70 was closed at 15.75. We are seeing some slight firming of the USD and Yen also.
Should this new situation involving Greece quickly accelerate into a full scale panic, any chance of a technical reversal will be dashed. With this inmind place the stop in Usd/Chf short to entry and stand aside.
Risk - Off is beginning to show its face again with both gold and silver reversing from their highs. The long silver trade at 15.70 was closed at 15.75. We are seeing some slight firming of the USD and Yen also.
Should this new situation involving Greece quickly accelerate into a full scale panic, any chance of a technical reversal will be dashed. With this inmind place the stop in Usd/Chf short to entry and stand aside.
A few more go overnight
Gold seemed to be leading the charge on the Tocom open pulling silver through the hrly 200 ema, thus, triggering our short 16.81 trade to reverse at 15.70 and should target the weekly uptrend support now turned resistance at 15.87.
Cable popped through res and finally got its head above the hrly 300 lwma, but with Eur/Gbp breaking up out of the wedge formation it has slowed any further gains for the moment.
Will be watching a few pairs today to see how these breaks translate into the other majors such as the Euro and Swiss which are currently holding just shy of their daily resistance and supports. With Usd/Jpy not really doing much of anything, a weaker dollar has allowed the Yen crosses to continue their drift higher with Aud/Jpy approaching the 4 hrly 200 lwma, the Eur/jpy currently sitting a tad under its daily downtrend res and hrly 300lwma and the Gbp/Jpy hoverring either side of the hrly 100/90 ema´s.
Stocks and commodities are also higher this morning going into the New York session which should support this slowly developing retracement.
We have a fair bit of news today so stay alert as it looks like we are in for another bumpy ride.
Cable popped through res and finally got its head above the hrly 300 lwma, but with Eur/Gbp breaking up out of the wedge formation it has slowed any further gains for the moment.
Will be watching a few pairs today to see how these breaks translate into the other majors such as the Euro and Swiss which are currently holding just shy of their daily resistance and supports. With Usd/Jpy not really doing much of anything, a weaker dollar has allowed the Yen crosses to continue their drift higher with Aud/Jpy approaching the 4 hrly 200 lwma, the Eur/jpy currently sitting a tad under its daily downtrend res and hrly 300lwma and the Gbp/Jpy hoverring either side of the hrly 100/90 ema´s.
Stocks and commodities are also higher this morning going into the New York session which should support this slowly developing retracement.
We have a fair bit of news today so stay alert as it looks like we are in for another bumpy ride.
I did leave out one tool that has been very good to me
This is by no-means an advertisment ... But if you are new to trading or simply want another tool for accuracy in your trading, I have to admit that the only signal provider I have ever seen that has been any good is ALG.
Signal providers are a dime a dozen these days,, but this guy is simple, accurate and reletively cheap. On the negative side, he does tend to be a little cryptic at times. I think it is more to do with English not being his first language. When he gets it wrong, damage is tiny due to the fact that he uses miniscule stops of 17-25 pips. But his accuracy for entries even has me scratching my head sometimes.
It really doesnt matter whether he has friends at big clearers or hedge funds, the guy is worth the monthly fee and not only does he give trade signals but he also teaches his method of selecting trades.
His free site is updated regularly, with the minimum details of his trades and he did give a free month of signals in January...which if taken on a 25k account would have netted you aroud 15k... You can see his free site at Alg´s Blogspot or subscribe at ALG FOREX.
Personally, I have been able to use his signals combined with my own charts and have been very profitable this year. If you do subscribe to his signal, tell him Bear sent you...that way he will know who to blame,,,No, all jokes aside. I reccomend him for both new and older traders and if you dont understand a signal he is very quick to answer questions. Failing that you can always post a question in the comment section here and we can discuss it.
Signal providers are a dime a dozen these days,, but this guy is simple, accurate and reletively cheap. On the negative side, he does tend to be a little cryptic at times. I think it is more to do with English not being his first language. When he gets it wrong, damage is tiny due to the fact that he uses miniscule stops of 17-25 pips. But his accuracy for entries even has me scratching my head sometimes.
It really doesnt matter whether he has friends at big clearers or hedge funds, the guy is worth the monthly fee and not only does he give trade signals but he also teaches his method of selecting trades.
His free site is updated regularly, with the minimum details of his trades and he did give a free month of signals in January...which if taken on a 25k account would have netted you aroud 15k... You can see his free site at Alg´s Blogspot or subscribe at ALG FOREX.
Personally, I have been able to use his signals combined with my own charts and have been very profitable this year. If you do subscribe to his signal, tell him Bear sent you...that way he will know who to blame,,,No, all jokes aside. I reccomend him for both new and older traders and if you dont understand a signal he is very quick to answer questions. Failing that you can always post a question in the comment section here and we can discuss it.
About my charts
Being able to read a chart and deduce which way price will go with the highest possible accuracy can be as simple or difficult as you want to make it. Not being an overly complicated person, I prefer the simple way..
The basic tools I use in determining a trade are summarised by the following -
Trend - weekly/daily/4 hourly/hourly... sometime 30min..but rarely.
Up-Down-Sideways across all tf´s.
Candles and their various patterns
I have already gone over the basics of candles. Patterns, I tend to look at only those that appear on the daily and 4 hrly charts as they are far stronger than those that appear of charts of 60 minutes or less.
Correlation
I am consistantly looking at correlations between the differing markets looking for why the market is moving and watching for the flows of money...Those flows are your trends. Traders must be aware that the current Risk-ON Risk-OFF environment means that when Risk is perceived in the market funds will flow into USD, Yen and Treasuries as a safe haven and out of commodities, commodity currencies, Eur, Gbp and Chf to a certain although minor extent.
When you see strong correlations between markets then a strong trend is underway and you can take maximum advantage trading across various pairs, commodities and indicies.Inversely, when you see correlations begining to weaken, the trend is getting close to finishing and a period of reflection or consolidation maybe unfolding.
Indicators and Oscillators
Often an unknown fact, and one reason why new traders are continuously carded when using the hundreds of indicators and oscillators is that the fail to remember that indicators work best in a trend. Oscillators on the otherhand, work best in sideways or consolidating markets.
I use a combination of indicators and oscillators in conjunction with trend and price action..That way I can attempt to get in on a trending move earlier and enjoy the ride.
Moving Averages
Moving Averages for me are probably the strongest indicator that I use and I will continuously use them to trigger trades over various tf´s. They are also very strong points of res and sup. I use different ma´s depending on the tf and the actual pair....Problem.. Ma´s are trending ...thus when we enter a bout of consolidation, price will and does chop either side of the ma before heading off in the direction of the new trend or retracement of trend.
Slow Stochastic
I use a slightly longer setting of either 21,5,5 or 21,3,5. These settings seem to work better over the varying tf´s and are far smoother. Remember this is an oscillator and can be completely useless when a strong trend develops.
MACD
Although not the strongest indicator I use. It is used more to gauge the strength of the current trend. A crossing of the zero line confirms price direction.
Trix
The Trix I use, is the same that was devised in the Cobraforex THV system. Although not perfect , it has shown a strong capability to indicate turns in trends over the various tf´s. Used in conjuction with the other indicators and oscillators, accurate entries can be achieved... The better entries will be accompanied by the crossing of the fast and slow lines, with bullish or bearish divergence.
RSI
Though not appearing on all pairs I like to watch the RSI for divergence on 4 hrly and daily charts.
Pivot Points and Fibs
Pivot points are strong levels at which price will encounter res and support and can be used to identify take profit and stop orders. Like pivot points Fibs are possible the strongest tool that a trader can have when estimating targets for price retracements and projections.
Volume
When looking for reversals of trend it is always good to check the volume at the daily and weekly highs and lows. Spike highs and lows when not accompamied with volume indicate that a strong possibility of reversal is unfolding.
In summary, rather than being a flat out contrarian , I have found it far better and profitable to be an informed contrarian. Indicators and oscillators cannot dictate where price will go, but, if used in conjunction with the basics the odds of being profitable swing heavily in your favour.
The basic tools I use in determining a trade are summarised by the following -
Trend - weekly/daily/4 hourly/hourly... sometime 30min..but rarely.
Up-Down-Sideways across all tf´s.
Candles and their various patterns
I have already gone over the basics of candles. Patterns, I tend to look at only those that appear on the daily and 4 hrly charts as they are far stronger than those that appear of charts of 60 minutes or less.
Correlation
I am consistantly looking at correlations between the differing markets looking for why the market is moving and watching for the flows of money...Those flows are your trends. Traders must be aware that the current Risk-ON Risk-OFF environment means that when Risk is perceived in the market funds will flow into USD, Yen and Treasuries as a safe haven and out of commodities, commodity currencies, Eur, Gbp and Chf to a certain although minor extent.
When you see strong correlations between markets then a strong trend is underway and you can take maximum advantage trading across various pairs, commodities and indicies.Inversely, when you see correlations begining to weaken, the trend is getting close to finishing and a period of reflection or consolidation maybe unfolding.
Indicators and Oscillators
Often an unknown fact, and one reason why new traders are continuously carded when using the hundreds of indicators and oscillators is that the fail to remember that indicators work best in a trend. Oscillators on the otherhand, work best in sideways or consolidating markets.
I use a combination of indicators and oscillators in conjunction with trend and price action..That way I can attempt to get in on a trending move earlier and enjoy the ride.
Moving Averages
Moving Averages for me are probably the strongest indicator that I use and I will continuously use them to trigger trades over various tf´s. They are also very strong points of res and sup. I use different ma´s depending on the tf and the actual pair....Problem.. Ma´s are trending ...thus when we enter a bout of consolidation, price will and does chop either side of the ma before heading off in the direction of the new trend or retracement of trend.
Slow Stochastic
I use a slightly longer setting of either 21,5,5 or 21,3,5. These settings seem to work better over the varying tf´s and are far smoother. Remember this is an oscillator and can be completely useless when a strong trend develops.
MACD
Although not the strongest indicator I use. It is used more to gauge the strength of the current trend. A crossing of the zero line confirms price direction.
Trix
The Trix I use, is the same that was devised in the Cobraforex THV system. Although not perfect , it has shown a strong capability to indicate turns in trends over the various tf´s. Used in conjuction with the other indicators and oscillators, accurate entries can be achieved... The better entries will be accompanied by the crossing of the fast and slow lines, with bullish or bearish divergence.
RSI
Though not appearing on all pairs I like to watch the RSI for divergence on 4 hrly and daily charts.
Pivot Points and Fibs
Pivot points are strong levels at which price will encounter res and support and can be used to identify take profit and stop orders. Like pivot points Fibs are possible the strongest tool that a trader can have when estimating targets for price retracements and projections.
Volume
When looking for reversals of trend it is always good to check the volume at the daily and weekly highs and lows. Spike highs and lows when not accompamied with volume indicate that a strong possibility of reversal is unfolding.
In summary, rather than being a flat out contrarian , I have found it far better and profitable to be an informed contrarian. Indicators and oscillators cannot dictate where price will go, but, if used in conjunction with the basics the odds of being profitable swing heavily in your favour.
Monday, 15 February 2010
Cable
Daily charts are beginning to turn up, price continues to consolidate within the defined ranges.
4 Hourly charts show a breakout of the downward trendline. Indicators are mixed to mildly bullish.
1 Houly chart like its 4 hrouly counter-part is mildly bullish with price currently stalled at the 300 lwma.
Conclusion -
An hourly close above the ma would trigger a long trade with indicators in mildly bullish mode. BUT, and its a big but.... Eur/Gbp shorter tf charts look tired and have boxed themselves into a wedge. I would prefer to see both the hourly and 4 hourly charts stronly bullish before entering a full unit trade long of Gbp/Usd, with the acompanying set-up short in Eur/Gbp. Wait and see..it may be a long day ahead..
4 Hourly charts show a breakout of the downward trendline. Indicators are mixed to mildly bullish.
1 Houly chart like its 4 hrouly counter-part is mildly bullish with price currently stalled at the 300 lwma.
Conclusion -
An hourly close above the ma would trigger a long trade with indicators in mildly bullish mode. BUT, and its a big but.... Eur/Gbp shorter tf charts look tired and have boxed themselves into a wedge. I would prefer to see both the hourly and 4 hourly charts stronly bullish before entering a full unit trade long of Gbp/Usd, with the acompanying set-up short in Eur/Gbp. Wait and see..it may be a long day ahead..
Quiet start to the week
Its been a quiet start to the week with the Asians beginning their New Year celebrations - Kong hei fat choy - and US presidents day today. The data cupboard is pretty much bare with all eyes watching for comments out of the EU ministers meeting today.
Trading wise, there is not alot to do right here. Stocks are firmer, with the mini dow hoverring about the hrly 300 ema. Gold is shining again this morning and approaching Daily R1 at 1101 with better res above at the channel at 1107.50. Silver also firmer, but lagging gold and has res at 15.67 at the hrly 200 ema. A break and close above and I will reverse the open short position from 16.81.
Crude oil remains within 74.50/72.50 , presently sitting under the hrly 300 ema.
On the currency front, I will be looking for markets to confirm a near term top in the Dollar with targets as mentioned in the weekend report. Of most interest will be the Dollar Index - USDX. A break of support at 80.10 with hourly close under the 200 sma will be a signal that a retracement has begun and should target the weekly upchannel, with minor support levels at 79.65 and 78.80.
Eur/Chf remains in a tight range with the SNB seen a few times last week ahead of 1.4635.
Open Trades
Usd/Chf - short 1/4 unit @ 1.0785 stop 1.0885
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - short 1/2 @ 16.81 stop 16.00
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45 Reversed @ 15.40
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
Trading wise, there is not alot to do right here. Stocks are firmer, with the mini dow hoverring about the hrly 300 ema. Gold is shining again this morning and approaching Daily R1 at 1101 with better res above at the channel at 1107.50. Silver also firmer, but lagging gold and has res at 15.67 at the hrly 200 ema. A break and close above and I will reverse the open short position from 16.81.
Crude oil remains within 74.50/72.50 , presently sitting under the hrly 300 ema.
On the currency front, I will be looking for markets to confirm a near term top in the Dollar with targets as mentioned in the weekend report. Of most interest will be the Dollar Index - USDX. A break of support at 80.10 with hourly close under the 200 sma will be a signal that a retracement has begun and should target the weekly upchannel, with minor support levels at 79.65 and 78.80.
On the Yen crosses, there is not alot to do either. Aud/Jpy has broken the daily down trend and tgts the 4 hrly 200 lwma at 80.71. Immediate support lies at 79.40.
Eur/Jpy still remains in its downtrend with solid res at daily down channel at 123.35, with the hrly 300 lwma slightly above there. Support lies at 121.50.
Gbp/Jpy remains in a choppy upward sloping consolidation channel formed off the lows within the overall weekly bearish channel. Strong res lies at 142.65 and 4 hrly 100/90 ema bands. Support at 140.15.
Eur/Jpy still remains in its downtrend with solid res at daily down channel at 123.35, with the hrly 300 lwma slightly above there. Support lies at 121.50.
Gbp/Jpy remains in a choppy upward sloping consolidation channel formed off the lows within the overall weekly bearish channel. Strong res lies at 142.65 and 4 hrly 100/90 ema bands. Support at 140.15.
Eur/Chf remains in a tight range with the SNB seen a few times last week ahead of 1.4635.
Open Trades
Usd/Chf - short 1/4 unit @ 1.0785 stop 1.0885
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - short 1/2 @ 16.81 stop 16.00
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45 Reversed @ 15.40
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
Sunday, 14 February 2010
Thoughts for the coming week
It was a tumultuous week for trading, correlations were busted left, right and centre. Comments regarding the Greek bailout had us trading all over the shop, with some pairs breaking immediate daily trend such as Aussie + Canada, whilst others remained in trend.
In my experience when the two smaller dollars break, 7 out of 10 times you better be paying attention as they do have a strong tendency to lead. That being said, the weekly charts are strongly bearish so I would not be expecting that to change anytime soon.
Eur/Usd
Whilst the Euro remains in a strong weekly downtrend and in daily downtrend under resistance at 1.3770. Strong buying has emerged ahead of the 1.3500 area just above the 61.8 weekly fib at 1.3485.
Trix has crossed up with bullish divergence. Should the low already be in place , I will be looking for a retracement similar to that of december 2009 which comes in slightly above the weekly downtrend res. at 1.3900.
Trade wise I will be looking to buy dips near 1.3550 with stops under 1.3450. The hourly charts will be my guide for exact timing and rate of entry.
Cable
Similar to its Euro counterpart, Cable emains in the weekly downtrend with the res line sitting at 1.6270.Fridays close slightly above the daily downtrend is also a warning that bulls have begun to take control. Also of note was the bounce off the channel support. Should cable indeed be in retracement mode and copy the retracement seen in dec-jan tgt would be 1.6164 slightly above the 61.8 fib.
With this in mind, keep a close eye on Eur/Gbp as an accelerated downward move maybe unfolding, thus, giving support for an extended retracement in cable.
In my experience when the two smaller dollars break, 7 out of 10 times you better be paying attention as they do have a strong tendency to lead. That being said, the weekly charts are strongly bearish so I would not be expecting that to change anytime soon.
Eur/Usd
Whilst the Euro remains in a strong weekly downtrend and in daily downtrend under resistance at 1.3770. Strong buying has emerged ahead of the 1.3500 area just above the 61.8 weekly fib at 1.3485.
Trix has crossed up with bullish divergence. Should the low already be in place , I will be looking for a retracement similar to that of december 2009 which comes in slightly above the weekly downtrend res. at 1.3900.
Trade wise I will be looking to buy dips near 1.3550 with stops under 1.3450. The hourly charts will be my guide for exact timing and rate of entry.
Cable
Similar to its Euro counterpart, Cable emains in the weekly downtrend with the res line sitting at 1.6270.Fridays close slightly above the daily downtrend is also a warning that bulls have begun to take control. Also of note was the bounce off the channel support. Should cable indeed be in retracement mode and copy the retracement seen in dec-jan tgt would be 1.6164 slightly above the 61.8 fib.
With this in mind, keep a close eye on Eur/Gbp as an accelerated downward move maybe unfolding, thus, giving support for an extended retracement in cable.
Aussie
Aussie has broken out of its daily down trend after finding good support at the daily 200 sma. Shold this retracement copy that of the dec - jan rally , we should be looking at a tgt of 0.9175 just north of the 78.6 fib.
Trading wise looking to buy dips along the 4 hrly support line currently at 0.8800.
Swissy
Swissy remains in the daily uptrend with trendline support at 1.0660. Like the other pairs should a top be in place a retracement toward 1.0450 should be unfolding.
We sold 1/4 unit at 1.0785 with stop at 1.0875. I will be watching the hourly charts to add to this position.
Saturday, 13 February 2010
USD/CHF
Sold 1/4 unit @ 1.0785 stop 1.0885.
will look to add to this position higher if I see it reducing the stop as the amount at risk increases.
will look to add to this position higher if I see it reducing the stop as the amount at risk increases.
Update
Charts are finally beginning to line up across the various tf´s.. looking to sell USD..
Usd/CHF above 1.0780
Eur/Usd below 1.3550.. oops srry
Cable below 1.5575
be patient
Usd/CHF above 1.0780
Eur/Usd below 1.3550.. oops srry
Cable below 1.5575
be patient
After a week of worry and terrible trading
Ok let the trades flow like water.. Widget is back at the helm. Trading will be back to normal next week...
Friday, 12 February 2010
USD/JPY
Must admit I dont trade this much as it very rarely does what I think it will do.. having said that we are approaching channel res at 90.30 combined with the fact that there is also ma resistance and it represents the 61.8 fib of the drop from 91.25..
New Positions
With Euro, Cable and Swissy approaching important support and resistances and with daily indicators having reversed, it´s time to look for signs in price that this trend is coming to an end.
Correlations are way out at present. Aussie and Usd/Cad often lead a change in trend sometimes by a few days. Watch Gold, it was a great indicator yesterday that we would see a sharp reversal..
On the fundamental side not a great deal has changed except for the fact that Greece will not be allowed to go under.It is only a matter of time, before another European or Eastern European puts up its hand for help...China is on a tightenning path. Iran still is stirring the pot....Be it political or real , the US economy is beginning to turn...Given these facts the bias toward safer assets remains...
I will be looking at -
Buying Euro down around the channel bottom and 61.8 daily fib - when hourly indicators turn bullish and 4 hrly indicators are approaching a turn.
Buying Cable down near 1.5500/30 chasnnel sup - when hourly indicators turn bullish and 4 hrly indicators are approaching a turn.
Selling Usd/Chf at channel res 1.0830 - when hourly indicators turn bullish and 4 hrly indicators are approaching a turn.
Selling Usd/Cad on a failure at the hrly 300 ema and res. -
when hourly indicators turn bullish and 4 hrly indicators are approaching a turn.
Take your time, wait for the trades to set up, then pull the trigger. I find it helpfull to enter with a small amount first if your not 100% certain and then add.. that way the ansiety is calmed and if your wrong u dont do much damage to your account..
Correlations are way out at present. Aussie and Usd/Cad often lead a change in trend sometimes by a few days. Watch Gold, it was a great indicator yesterday that we would see a sharp reversal..
On the fundamental side not a great deal has changed except for the fact that Greece will not be allowed to go under.It is only a matter of time, before another European or Eastern European puts up its hand for help...China is on a tightenning path. Iran still is stirring the pot....Be it political or real , the US economy is beginning to turn...Given these facts the bias toward safer assets remains...
I will be looking at -
Buying Euro down around the channel bottom and 61.8 daily fib - when hourly indicators turn bullish and 4 hrly indicators are approaching a turn.
Buying Cable down near 1.5500/30 chasnnel sup - when hourly indicators turn bullish and 4 hrly indicators are approaching a turn.
Selling Usd/Chf at channel res 1.0830 - when hourly indicators turn bullish and 4 hrly indicators are approaching a turn.
Selling Usd/Cad on a failure at the hrly 300 ema and res. -
when hourly indicators turn bullish and 4 hrly indicators are approaching a turn.
Take your time, wait for the trades to set up, then pull the trigger. I find it helpfull to enter with a small amount first if your not 100% certain and then add.. that way the ansiety is calmed and if your wrong u dont do much damage to your account..
Quick Update
After throwing in the towel yesterday I feel much better..
The ass is falling out of these markets yet again this morning, as China has again increased its reserve requirements by 0.5%....basically for those that don´t quite understand this, raising the reserve requirement is a club to to head for banks and their lending.commodities and the ccommodity currencies will be getting hit hard.
Daily indicators are reversing so I would be looking for this current leg to be the last in this current trend.. Expect Eur/Usd to find support at the daily 61.8 fib and channel support toward 1.3480 ish, Gbp/Usd at channel support 1.5510, Aud/Usd is sitting on channel support after a break of the hrly 400 ema a break here would see us targetting 0.8730. Usd/Chf has channel res at 1.0829.
The yen crosses I will have a look at in a bit, but 78.68 previous res now turned support should be the tgt of this down move.
Open Trades
Gbp/Usd - Short 1/2 1.5700 stop 1.5700 tgt 1.5510
Aud/Usd - Short on break of hrly 400 ema MISSED... sleep always gets in the way..
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - short 1/2 @ 16.81 stop 16.00
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45 Reversed @ 15.40
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
The ass is falling out of these markets yet again this morning, as China has again increased its reserve requirements by 0.5%....basically for those that don´t quite understand this, raising the reserve requirement is a club to to head for banks and their lending.commodities and the ccommodity currencies will be getting hit hard.
Daily indicators are reversing so I would be looking for this current leg to be the last in this current trend.. Expect Eur/Usd to find support at the daily 61.8 fib and channel support toward 1.3480 ish, Gbp/Usd at channel support 1.5510, Aud/Usd is sitting on channel support after a break of the hrly 400 ema a break here would see us targetting 0.8730. Usd/Chf has channel res at 1.0829.
The yen crosses I will have a look at in a bit, but 78.68 previous res now turned support should be the tgt of this down move.
Open Trades
Gbp/Usd - Short 1/2 1.5700 stop 1.5700 tgt 1.5510
Aud/Usd - Short on break of hrly 400 ema MISSED... sleep always gets in the way..
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - short 1/2 @ 16.81 stop 16.00
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45 Reversed @ 15.40
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
Sold Cable at 1.5700 and watchin AUD
After this weeks miserable performance I am out for blood... Market has lost correlation and indicators are all over the shop.. I sold cable at 1.5700 under res.. and I will sell AUD on break of 400 ema looking fr 0.8800 ish.. Daily charts are turning up in aud eur etc... near term bottom may well be in. Play it tight n fast..
Trade Update
TRADE UPDATE
OPEN TRADES -
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - short 1/2 @ 16.81 stop 16.00
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45 Reversed @ 15.40
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
CLOSED TRADES -
Eur/Usd - SQR
Sold 1 unit @ 1.4000
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3850.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3750.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3791 - Reversed @ 1.3791
Closed 1/2 @ 1.3683
Total - +258.5 USD PIPS
Gbp/Usd - SQR
Sold 1 unit @ 1.6015
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5845.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5755.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5660.Reversed @ 1.5660
Closed 1/2 @ 1.5685
Total - +272.5 USD PIPS
Aud/Usd - SQR
Sold 1 unit @ 0.8898 stop 0.8898. POSITION CLOSED @ STOP
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8805.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8688.
Sold 1/4 @ 0.8705 Stopped 0.8745
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8771 Reversed @ 0.8765
Closed 1/2 @ 0.8898 on stop
Sold 1/4 @ 0.8850
Sold 3/4 @ 0.8870
Closed 1 unit @ 0.8911
Total - +18.5 USD PIPS
Nzd/Usd - SQR
Sold 1 Unit @ 0.6900 Closed 0.6927
Total - -27 USD PIPS
Usd/Cad - SQR
Bought 1 unit @ 1.0555 stop 1.0555. POSITION CLOSED AT STOP
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0635.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0720.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0682
Add 1/4 @ 1.0600 stopped 1.0585
Total - +89.25 CAD PIPS
Aud/Jpy - SQR
Sold 1 unit 80.35 stop 80.35.
Closed 1/4 @ 79.91.
Closed 1/4 @ 76.61
Closed 1/4 @ 78.54. Reversed @ 0.78.71
Closed 1/2 unit @ 79.93
TOTAL - +129.75 JPY PIPS
It is days like today when you just have to say....
F%$&it..... take a deep breath, a step back, clean your charts and start all over again....
Close all trades @ market with exception of Eur/Chf and Xag/Usd.
Close all trades @ market with exception of Eur/Chf and Xag/Usd.
This is getting just too hard
Usd/Cad closed at 1.0555 fr remaining 1/4
Aud/Usd now caught the wrong way... looking fr a dip to get out
Aud/Jpy stop is in place
Cable out above the hrly 220 ma
silver out above trend break
eur ill keep a lil longer
Aud/Usd now caught the wrong way... looking fr a dip to get out
Aud/Jpy stop is in place
Cable out above the hrly 220 ma
silver out above trend break
eur ill keep a lil longer
Aud/Usd
Selling 1/4 Aud/Usd @ 0.8850 SET
Working to Sell 3/4 @ 0.8870
Stop 0.8915
inicial tgt hrly 100 smoothed ma
Working to Sell 3/4 @ 0.8870
Stop 0.8915
inicial tgt hrly 100 smoothed ma
Thursday, 11 February 2010
Sounds more like a Trojan Bailout
Talk out of Europe of a bailout package for Greece has been running thick and fast. But, to be honest, it sounds to me like the deal has more strings attached to it than Chins in a Chinese phone book....
The package will guarantee that Greece doesn´t go belly up, but it has so many con´s that other Euro states with similar problems will be thinking twice before sticking out their hands...Sounds like the Germans had a big influence here.
Still watching Kiwi and Aussie ma´s. Watching Usd/Cad also..there has been good support at that 1.0575 level but i just wonder how long it can hold up. back above 1.0600 and it should be safe.
The package will guarantee that Greece doesn´t go belly up, but it has so many con´s that other Euro states with similar problems will be thinking twice before sticking out their hands...Sounds like the Germans had a big influence here.
Still watching Kiwi and Aussie ma´s. Watching Usd/Cad also..there has been good support at that 1.0575 level but i just wonder how long it can hold up. back above 1.0600 and it should be safe.
Kiwi
Kiwi setting up for a short trade on break and close below the hrly 200 ema, indicators are rolling over bearish with bearish divergence on the Trix . Stop goes slightly above the days high which is just above both daily downtrend channel res and 300 ema.
Adjusting Entries
Open Orders
Sell 1/4 Eur/Jpy @ 124.00 s/l 124.35 CANCEL
Sell 1/4 Aud/Jpy @ 79.80 s/l 80.15
Buy 1/4 Usd/Cad @ 1.0575 s/l 1.0550 .. I didnt get set..did anyone else?
Aud/Usd looking to sell 1 unit on break and close of hourly 400 ema. s/l 0.8935.
Sell 1/4 Eur/Jpy @ 124.00 s/l 124.35 CANCEL
Sell 1/4 Aud/Jpy @ 79.80 s/l 80.15
Buy 1/4 Usd/Cad @ 1.0575 s/l 1.0550 .. I didnt get set..did anyone else?
Aud/Usd looking to sell 1 unit on break and close of hourly 400 ema. s/l 0.8935.
Trade Update
Just a recap, with the disaster in both Aud and Aud/Jpy there was a brighter note... both the third 1/4 t/p´s in Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd were reversed @ 1.3791 and 1.5660 respectively.
Stay alert for news out of the Euro zone and out of the Middle East. Light data day in the US and Canada.
Open Orders
Sell 1/4 Eur/Jpy @ 124.00 s/l 124.35
Sell 1/4 Aud/Jpy @ 80.10 s/l 80.35
Buy 1/4 Usd/Cad @ 1.0575 s/l 1.0550
Aud/Usd looking to sell 1 unit on break and close of hourly 400 ema. s/l 0.8935
Open Trades
Eur/Usd - short 1/2 @ 1.4000 stop 1.4000 .
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3850.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3750.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3791 - Reversed @ 1.3791
Gbp/Usd - short 1/2 @ 1.6015 stop 1.6015.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5845.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5755.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5660.Reversed @ 1.5660
Aud/Usd - short 0.8898 stop 0.8898. POSITION CLOSED @ STOP
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8805.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8688.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8771 Reversed @ 0.8765
Usd/Cad - long 1/4 @ 1.0555 stop 1.0555.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0635.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0720.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0682
Add 1/4 @ 1.0600 stopped 1.0585
Aud/Jpy - short 1/2 80.35 stop 80.35.
Closed 1/4 @ 79.91.
Closed 1/4 @ 76.61
Closed 1/4 @ 78.54. Reversed @ 0.78.71
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - short 1/2 @ 16.81 stop 16.75.
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45 Reversed @ 15.40
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
Stay alert for news out of the Euro zone and out of the Middle East. Light data day in the US and Canada.
Open Orders
Sell 1/4 Eur/Jpy @ 124.00 s/l 124.35
Sell 1/4 Aud/Jpy @ 80.10 s/l 80.35
Buy 1/4 Usd/Cad @ 1.0575 s/l 1.0550
Aud/Usd looking to sell 1 unit on break and close of hourly 400 ema. s/l 0.8935
Open Trades
Eur/Usd - short 1/2 @ 1.4000 stop 1.4000 .
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3850.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3750.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3791 - Reversed @ 1.3791
Gbp/Usd - short 1/2 @ 1.6015 stop 1.6015.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5845.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5755.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5660.Reversed @ 1.5660
Aud/Usd - short 0.8898 stop 0.8898. POSITION CLOSED @ STOP
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8805.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8688.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8771 Reversed @ 0.8765
Usd/Cad - long 1/4 @ 1.0555 stop 1.0555.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0635.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0720.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0682
Add 1/4 @ 1.0600 stopped 1.0585
Aud/Jpy - short 1/2 80.35 stop 80.35.
Closed 1/4 @ 79.91.
Closed 1/4 @ 76.61
Closed 1/4 @ 78.54. Reversed @ 0.78.71
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - short 1/2 @ 16.81 stop 16.75.
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45 Reversed @ 15.40
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
Update
After last nights Aussie data we have seen both Aud/Usd and Aud/Jpy break trend alongside Usd/Cad. Rest remain in trend.
1/2 Aud/Usd was stopped at entry for 0
1/4 Usd/Cad add at 1.0600 closed at 1.0585
1/4 Silver resold at 15.40
Time to get some back.
Will be watching Aud/Usd hrly 400 ema fr break and close enterring 1 unit short, same time selling 1/2 unit Aud/Jpy. Usd/Cad looking at buying 1/2 unit at 1.0570/75 with stop at 1.0555.
Eur/Jpy is wedged right up against both trend res and hrly 300 lwma. looking to sell 1/2 at 124.00 with stop at 124.35
1/2 Aud/Usd was stopped at entry for 0
1/4 Usd/Cad add at 1.0600 closed at 1.0585
1/4 Silver resold at 15.40
Time to get some back.
Will be watching Aud/Usd hrly 400 ema fr break and close enterring 1 unit short, same time selling 1/2 unit Aud/Jpy. Usd/Cad looking at buying 1/2 unit at 1.0570/75 with stop at 1.0555.
Eur/Jpy is wedged right up against both trend res and hrly 300 lwma. looking to sell 1/2 at 124.00 with stop at 124.35
There are just times u just want to scream....
cad trend broken and now aussie...interesting.. I feel like Ive just been stuck in a cell with Bubba....ok on the bright side we are still sitting on over 50% profit fr the month... 50% in a month equates to 600% annual.. on the negative side... I hate giving it back... told you this was a work in progress..
maybe they know something we dont... Iran perhaps..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/7205110/China-orders-retreat-from-risky-assets.html
OK calling it a day
Time to walk away fr a few hours.. still not set in Aussie... might be a good idea to adjust it to ur spread.. mine goes to 63. rest will stay as they are. Silver looking to sell 1/4 @ 15.40 now.
I may regret this but...
Given the look of 4 hrly charts and the hrly stochastic ..
Sell 1/4 Eur/Jpy @ 123.50 ...SET..This trade I should not have written here on the blog.. Most of you know that I am short 1/4 balance from 133.00 since 14/01/2010.. the last 1/4 i took yesterday at 123.49.. basically closing that for +1..
Sell 1/4 Aud/Jpy @ 78.70 ....SET... basically closing yesterdays 1/4 tp @ 78.54. Making us nett short 1/2 from for 80.35.
Sell Aud/Usd @ 0.8765 close..similar idea as above. closing the 1/4 tp from yesterday at 0.8771 for -6 pips.
Sell 1/4 Eur/Jpy @ 123.50 ...SET..This trade I should not have written here on the blog.. Most of you know that I am short 1/4 balance from 133.00 since 14/01/2010.. the last 1/4 i took yesterday at 123.49.. basically closing that for +1..
Sell 1/4 Aud/Jpy @ 78.70 ....SET... basically closing yesterdays 1/4 tp @ 78.54. Making us nett short 1/2 from for 80.35.
Sell Aud/Usd @ 0.8765 close..similar idea as above. closing the 1/4 tp from yesterday at 0.8771 for -6 pips.
Usd/Cad
Good support is situated around 1.0575/1.0600. Will look to enter 1/4 trade at 1.0600 sl 1.0585. Small lot size tiny risk... Picking bottoms is always a dangerous task but with little risk on the table I´ll have a go.. A break of 1.0575 and I will also exit remaining initial 1.0555 long.
Usd/Cad
Dam I missed this.. appologies.. this may be a warning as usd/cad sometimes leads by a few days..
US 10´s getttin smashed... close USD/JPY @ mkt
Yen crosses getting very close to breaking down trend as is the Aussie..
USD/JPY
Two options here
1. either get out @ mkt or on hrly close above 220 ema
2. move stop a little higher above 90.10 and look to sell another 1/2
All USD today after the release of Bernanke´s speech, with Yen finding very little support as stocks and commodities fall.
1. either get out @ mkt or on hrly close above 220 ema
2. move stop a little higher above 90.10 and look to sell another 1/2
All USD today after the release of Bernanke´s speech, with Yen finding very little support as stocks and commodities fall.
Stocks falling fast with gold oil and silver
Yen crosses should not be far behind if this picks up momentum
RISK OFF
Risk coming off quickly after Bernanke testimony . Not good for our usdjpy but the others are benefitting..
Gold and Silver coming lower quickly after taking out minor support line..
Gold and Silver coming lower quickly after taking out minor support line..
Trade Update
Well in hindsight, I really buggered up that last 1/4 exit. We are now getting close to adding to our trades. I will be watching the 4 hourly charts to turn back in favour with the dominant trend for entries. I will be enterring 1/2 of original position thus reversing the last 1/4 tp and adding 1/4.
I will also be looking to open Kiwi short, Gold short, Eur/Jpy, Dow and possibly Crude short.
Work out your available margin and position size accordingly.
Open Trades
Eur/Usd - short 1.4000 stop @ 1.4000 .
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3850.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3750.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3791
Gbp/Usd - short 1.6015 stop 1.6015.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5845.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5755.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5660.
Aud/Usd - short 0.8898 stop 0.8898.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8805.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8688.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8771
Usd/Cad - long 1.0555 stop 1.0555.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0635.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0720.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0682
Aud/Jpy - short 80.35 stop 80.35.
Closed 1/4 @ 79.91.
Closed 1/4 @ 76.61
Closed 1/4 @ 78.54
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - short 16.81 stop 16.75.
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
I will also be looking to open Kiwi short, Gold short, Eur/Jpy, Dow and possibly Crude short.
Work out your available margin and position size accordingly.
Open Trades
Eur/Usd - short 1.4000 stop @ 1.4000 .
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3850.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3750.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.3791
Gbp/Usd - short 1.6015 stop 1.6015.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5845.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5755.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.5660.
Aud/Usd - short 0.8898 stop 0.8898.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8805.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8688.
Closed 1/4 @ 0.8771
Usd/Cad - long 1.0555 stop 1.0555.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0635.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0720.
Closed 1/4 @ 1.0682
Aud/Jpy - short 80.35 stop 80.35.
Closed 1/4 @ 79.91.
Closed 1/4 @ 76.61
Closed 1/4 @ 78.54
Xag/Usd Spot Silver - short 16.81 stop 16.75.
Closed 1/4 @ 16.25.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.65.
Closed 1/4 @ 15.45
Eur/Chf - long 1.4575 stop 1.4620
Closed 1/4 @ 1.4703
Working 1/4 tp @ 1.4750
All pairs sitting on respective support and resistance
Doji´s forming indicating a minor reversalexcept yen pairs which have broken support... Now I will look to add over the next hour or two, hopefully at better levels than our emergency exits yesterday afternoon.
Look out Yen crosses coming lower
Us 10year notes being bought ( up in price, down in yield) after US deficit blows out to - 40 bln, causing Usd/Jpy selling.
RISK OFF
Portugal gets the ratings axe and the Germans just dont want to open their pocket book....here we go again
Wednesday, 10 February 2010
Divergence
Whilst I do not use divergence as a major tool in my trading, I certainly find it helpfull to confirm or deny the existence of a trading possibility. On my charts you can see the THV Trix indicator which automatically plots divergence between price and the trix.
There are two types of divergence between price and and indicator.Classical or Regular Divergence and Hidden or Reverse Divergence.
The easiest indicator to use divergence with is the RSI with a common setting of 14. Basically, if price is making higher highs, but RSI is going lower you have bearish divergence, which suggests that price is not well supported and will fall. The reverse is true for bullish divergence.
Here is a really good example of Bullish Divergence on the hrly Aussie chart..which I missed completely.....
Notice how price made lower lows , yet RSI went higher... certainly would have been a much better exit to our short.
Here is a link that has pretty much everything covered -
http://www.trading-naked.com/Divergence.htm
There are two types of divergence between price and and indicator.Classical or Regular Divergence and Hidden or Reverse Divergence.
The easiest indicator to use divergence with is the RSI with a common setting of 14. Basically, if price is making higher highs, but RSI is going lower you have bearish divergence, which suggests that price is not well supported and will fall. The reverse is true for bullish divergence.
Here is a really good example of Bullish Divergence on the hrly Aussie chart..which I missed completely.....
Notice how price made lower lows , yet RSI went higher... certainly would have been a much better exit to our short.
Here is a link that has pretty much everything covered -
http://www.trading-naked.com/Divergence.htm
Crude Oil
Crude still remains in a near term bullish mode approaching the hrly 300 ema. Above the ma targets daily R1 and the 61.8 fib just under 74.90.
With inventories out today its probably wiser to leave it alone until then.
With inventories out today its probably wiser to leave it alone until then.
Xag/Usd - Spot Silver
Daily downtrend still in force after last weeks break of the weekly long term up trend. With 4 hrly charts still in retracement mode with indicators +ve, near term resistance is seen at the weekly up trend support now turned resistance at 15.73 slightly below the 50 fib. Above there we have the down channel res at 15.96.
Will be looking for price to fail at resistance with a break of 15.33 hearlding the next leg lower.
Will be looking for price to fail at resistance with a break of 15.33 hearlding the next leg lower.
YMH0 - Mini Dow Futures
4 hrly indicators remain bullish, hrly indicators are turning back +ve albeit mildly. Price currently wrestling with the 200 lwma just below the daily down channel res at 10070 and 61.8 fib at 10076. Immediate support is at 9980.
Similar to the USDX, Daily and weekly trend is still in control whilst below 10070, although this leg of retracement is still in force.
Similar to the USDX, Daily and weekly trend is still in control whilst below 10070, although this leg of retracement is still in force.
USDX - Dollar Index
At the start of the day the best two charts to start with are the USDX - Dollar Index and one of the stock index charts, either the mini dow or e-mini s+p. Then gold or silver. This gives you a feel for which way the Risk bus is heading.
USDX -
Dollar Index remains confined in a short term downward retracement channel , within the overall weekly up trend.4 hrly indicators are bearish although beginning to lose momentum, Hourly indicators are beginning to turn lower.
Of most interest will be the houly 200 sma and 61.8 fib. We also have the 4 hrly 55 simple at 79.68.
I am thinking slightly lower first with consolidation around the ma´s before heading back higher.
USDX -
Dollar Index remains confined in a short term downward retracement channel , within the overall weekly up trend.4 hrly indicators are bearish although beginning to lose momentum, Hourly indicators are beginning to turn lower.
Of most interest will be the houly 200 sma and 61.8 fib. We also have the 4 hrly 55 simple at 79.68.
I am thinking slightly lower first with consolidation around the ma´s before heading back higher.
Pretty much back where we finished yesterday
A quick look at the charts and a read of the news and not much has changed overnight. We are pretty much back where we left off yesterday.
Give me a lil bit and I´ll post some charts and thoughts.
Give me a lil bit and I´ll post some charts and thoughts.
When in doubt...
Stay out. We continue to hover near very important near-term levels. Fundamentally, I think the Eurozone hacks will come up with some sort of back-up for Greece. It seems that the Germans and French dont want to appear to be writing an open cheque, for fears that Greece is just the first one in the queue..
Technically, trend is still in place and adding at the trend lines would be the correct thing to do. That being said, Price action after a number of low and high doji´s off lows and highs is hardly inspiring.
I will sit this dance out and wait a while..
Technically, trend is still in place and adding at the trend lines would be the correct thing to do. That being said, Price action after a number of low and high doji´s off lows and highs is hardly inspiring.
I will sit this dance out and wait a while..
what a joke…these guys could not organise a piss-up in a brewery
We will have some very interesting closes here this hour.... im watching Aud , Silver, Aud/Jpy and Eur/Jpy with interest for new shorts
German govt. spokesman says reports about decision on aid for Greece are 'unfounded'
Ohhh geez Louise.. this is a bloody joke
What to watch for now
Watching daily trendlines and the 61.8 fib.
Aud is currently at the measured move and trend and 61.8.. if this goes I will close remaining 1/4 short. UsdCad is also at trend support and 50 fib..usd/chf is also at daily trend.. if those three break close all trades except eurchf.
Aud is currently at the measured move and trend and 61.8.. if this goes I will close remaining 1/4 short. UsdCad is also at trend support and 50 fib..usd/chf is also at daily trend.. if those three break close all trades except eurchf.
Third 1/4 off @
Eur/Usd - 1.3791
Gbp/Usd - 1.5660
Aud/Usd - 0.8771
Aud/Jpy - 78.54
Usd/Cad - 1.0682
Xag/Usd - 15.45
Gbp/Usd - 1.5660
Aud/Usd - 0.8771
Aud/Jpy - 78.54
Usd/Cad - 1.0682
Xag/Usd - 15.45
CLOSED third 1/4 of all open trades @ market
except Eur/Chf long.. be back with rates in a bit.. should see trend being tested on this news
Help, Mr. Miyagi.....
Risk back on as the Greeks look like being helped....possibly a good idea to just close the third 1/4 of trade and walk away... It is fundamental moves like this that can change the technical perspective in an instant.
Just a thought
With tensions rising over Iran, anyone who is short Yen, Dollar or even Chf against the other majors should think very carefully about having firm stops in place and continue to trail them during the next week or so.
Should there be a black swan event involving Iran USD and Yen should be the safe havens of initial choice.
just a thought
Should there be a black swan event involving Iran USD and Yen should be the safe havens of initial choice.
just a thought
Usd/Chf
Looking to buy Usd/Chf below 1.0640 with indicators crossing up. Stop will be under 1.0580 inicially........ Its always a good idea to work out your position size by how many pips you are risking on any one trade and restrict it to no more than 3% of your account balance.
Italian Foreign Minsiter: Iranian militia tried to attack embassy
Italian Foreign Minsiter: Iranian militia tried to attack embassy
Pro-government militias tried to attack the Italian Embassy in Tehran today, the Italian foreign minister says.
Given the US experience in 1979/1981, this is not to be taken lightly. Iran has been increasingly bellicose toward the west in recent days.
Or maybe theyre trying to get the Buoni´s they bought refunded...
Given the US experience in 1979/1981, this is not to be taken lightly. Iran has been increasingly bellicose toward the west in recent days.
Or maybe theyre trying to get the Buoni´s they bought refunded...
Update
YMH0 - still sideways below 9995 and 38.2 fib, indicators are +ve but not really saying much.
Xau/Usd - Broken previous res. @ 1074 and held for the moment at ma´s 144/130 ema´s and more importantly 200 lwma. Break back through 1074 spells more sideway chop. A break thru the ma´s and 50 n 61.8 fibs will be tgted.
Xag/Usd - 15.35 caps.. above tgts 15.47 hrly 100ema and 38.2 fib.A break through 15.15 sends us back lower.
USDX - Currently holding at daily S2 and minor retracement channel bottom. 200 sma comes in lower near the 61.8 fib.
Eur/Usd - not really anything to write home about just here.
Gbp/Usd - cable doin what cable does....nothing until it goes bezerk outa nowhere.Eur/Gbp main influence again today.
Aud/Usd - got out of that quickly and neatly, 0.8780 will be the point to watch for another go at adding to shorts.
Usd/Chf - 1.0640 will be key near term support level.
Usd/Cad - 1.0660 daily up trend channel and 50 fib has held although hourly indicators remain bearish.. wait fr this one.
Yen crosses - same as Yen Cross Update.
Xau/Usd - Broken previous res. @ 1074 and held for the moment at ma´s 144/130 ema´s and more importantly 200 lwma. Break back through 1074 spells more sideway chop. A break thru the ma´s and 50 n 61.8 fibs will be tgted.
Xag/Usd - 15.35 caps.. above tgts 15.47 hrly 100ema and 38.2 fib.A break through 15.15 sends us back lower.
USDX - Currently holding at daily S2 and minor retracement channel bottom. 200 sma comes in lower near the 61.8 fib.
Eur/Usd - not really anything to write home about just here.
Gbp/Usd - cable doin what cable does....nothing until it goes bezerk outa nowhere.Eur/Gbp main influence again today.
Aud/Usd - got out of that quickly and neatly, 0.8780 will be the point to watch for another go at adding to shorts.
Usd/Chf - 1.0640 will be key near term support level.
Usd/Cad - 1.0660 daily up trend channel and 50 fib has held although hourly indicators remain bearish.. wait fr this one.
Yen crosses - same as Yen Cross Update.
Now we have a retracement...
Well finally we are starting to see more of a retracement in line with what the 4 hourly charts foretold. Sometimes its easy to get caught up in the smaller tf´s and you lose sight of the real picture...I guess I certainly did in taking that third quarter off...Daily trend is still well and truely down.. that one I havnt forgotten...
Ok back to what matters, lets look at it like this in USD terms
Daily - UP
4 Hourly - Down
Hourly - Down but nearing a turn.
We are still sitting on considerable unbooked profit from our original entries and the idea is to add to those positions when we hit daily trend. Ideally that would coincide with both hourly and 4 hourly charts turning in the direction of the main daily trend.
Whilst we sit and wait for that to occur, we can watch the hourly charts for quick trades in either direction. Those that have a FIFO platform, you will need to manually record your trades and match them off as your platform will close your original entry with an entry in the opposite direction.
Ok lets have a look at these things.
Ok back to what matters, lets look at it like this in USD terms
Daily - UP
4 Hourly - Down
Hourly - Down but nearing a turn.
We are still sitting on considerable unbooked profit from our original entries and the idea is to add to those positions when we hit daily trend. Ideally that would coincide with both hourly and 4 hourly charts turning in the direction of the main daily trend.
Whilst we sit and wait for that to occur, we can watch the hourly charts for quick trades in either direction. Those that have a FIFO platform, you will need to manually record your trades and match them off as your platform will close your original entry with an entry in the opposite direction.
Ok lets have a look at these things.
Tuesday, 9 February 2010
Yen Crosses
Aud/Jpy - approaching hrly 200 lwma with downtrend resistance above at 78.92
Eur/Jpy - has 50 fibo above at 123.82, with both the 61.8 and hrly 300 lwma coming in at 124.54, trend res at 125.15.
Gbp/Jpy ....ufff... having a hard enough time with kiwi let alone this beast... currently at previous channel support turned resistance. Above here we have the more important 38.2 fib which coincides with the 100/90 ema bands.
Eur/Jpy - has 50 fibo above at 123.82, with both the 61.8 and hrly 300 lwma coming in at 124.54, trend res at 125.15.
Gbp/Jpy ....ufff... having a hard enough time with kiwi let alone this beast... currently at previous channel support turned resistance. Above here we have the more important 38.2 fib which coincides with the 100/90 ema bands.
Aussie and Kiwi
Im not happy with current price action in Aussie, in line with my rules of trading the MA, price has closed back above the 30 min ma with the slow stoch turning back up...closing the trade @ market.
Kiwi -same as aussie
Kiwi -same as aussie
MA - Moving Average Trading
A quick note on moving average trading. My basic rules are entries on a break and close above or below the moving average we are watching, with indicators turning in the direction of the break.
The stop is generally placed above the previous swing high or low of current price action, or if price breaks back and closes through the moving average with one or more of the indicators reversing path.
Entries can be made in a combination of ways. Either enter your full trade size on the next candle open through the ma. Secondly, entering 1/4 of your total trade size on the next openning candle through the ma, then place the balance of the entry at the ma to catch a pullback.
These are not hard and fastened rules but are merely a guide as to how I trade.
Always remember, price action is king. Indicators are merely a safety blanket for a favourable trade.
The stop is generally placed above the previous swing high or low of current price action, or if price breaks back and closes through the moving average with one or more of the indicators reversing path.
Entries can be made in a combination of ways. Either enter your full trade size on the next candle open through the ma. Secondly, entering 1/4 of your total trade size on the next openning candle through the ma, then place the balance of the entry at the ma to catch a pullback.
These are not hard and fastened rules but are merely a guide as to how I trade.
Always remember, price action is king. Indicators are merely a safety blanket for a favourable trade.
hmm i may have this wrong
30 min Usd/Cad and Nzd/Usd have put in doji reversal candles and the Aussie hourly put in a hammer, as has the Eur/Usd...... 30 minute indicators have crossed bearish... Stops are reasonably tight so not much damage can be done.. still Ill watch them and may just close them early if I deem necessary.
Aussie and Kiwi
With 8 minutes to go till the candle close I will work to sell 1/4 Aussie @ 0.8717 witha stop on this 1/4 at 0.8740. Kiwi , Nzd/Usd is also another candidate for a short a little above here with your stop 0.6940 just above the previous highs, 38.2 fib and 30min 200 ema.
retrace targets being met
Eur/Usd has met my initial retrace target at the 1.3640/50 zone, cable managed to get to the 23.6 fib although Eur/Gbp has quashed any further rise in that puppy, Aud/Usd just getting the wobbles above the 30 min 100 smoothed moving average. On the Yen Crosses, Eur/Jpy has achieved the 3802 fib sitting just underneath the previous channel support turned res. at 123.14, slightly higher than my 123.05 tgt, Aud/Jpy has also met th projected retrace tgt at 78.15 currently sitting just shy of the 50% fib and the hrly 200 lwma.the Usd/Cad sits between the 38.2 and 50 fib with strong up channel support sitting just below at 1.0658.
Gold, Silver and crude have also retraced mildly but have seen more of a consolidation / sideways trade rather than any meaningful retrace.
Keep your eye on the YMH0, break and close under the 100 sma 30min will have us back looking at the 9900 again.
Gold, Silver and crude have also retraced mildly but have seen more of a consolidation / sideways trade rather than any meaningful retrace.
Keep your eye on the YMH0, break and close under the 100 sma 30min will have us back looking at the 9900 again.
OK if at first u dont suceed. ...
Cancel those last oredrs. Watching 30 Min Aud/Usd to add short now. Will sell 1/4 on a cross and close under the ma´s.
I will update the others in the next wee while.. havnt even had a coffee yet..
I will update the others in the next wee while.. havnt even had a coffee yet..
Well, we kinda had a retracement...
Unfortunately, we didn´t make it much past the 23.6 fib. Still, 4 hrly charts have turned againt the immediate trend. I will again be watching the hourlies for a turn in line with the 4 hrly charts to see if this time we can do better than the dead cat bounce we witnessed today.
Usd/Cad working to sell 1/4 @1.0740,
Aud/Usd working to buy 1/4 @ 0.8640
Xag/Usd working to buy 1/4 @ 14.95
Aud/Jpy working to buy 1/4 @ 77.15
Eur/Usd working to buy 1/4 at1.3650
Gbp/Usd working to buy 1/4 at 1.5580
no change Eur/Chf
Usd/Cad working to sell 1/4 @1.0740,
Aud/Usd working to buy 1/4 @ 0.8640
Xag/Usd working to buy 1/4 @ 14.95
Aud/Jpy working to buy 1/4 @ 77.15
Eur/Usd working to buy 1/4 at1.3650
Gbp/Usd working to buy 1/4 at 1.5580
no change Eur/Chf
Going out for a while
Cable a lil stronger and back above res turned support at 1.5625...only concern is another late day rally in the stocks ... but not really fussed at this point.
Cable breaks res as Eur/Gbp sinks
Eur/Gbp currently siting on interim support..
Aud n Eur at pennant tops
Aud n Eur at pennant tops
It is days like this ...
It is days like this when, if you stare at the sceens for too long, you will go blind....or stir crazy.. In regard to our positions nothing has essentially changed on the fundamental side. Technically, 4 houly charts are calling for a retracement, whilst the shorter time frames have now swung back in our favour.
Stocks seem to be running the show today, so its best to keep an eye on them, set your alerts n alarms a todays ranges n go do those errands you should have done last week.
Stocks seem to be running the show today, so its best to keep an eye on them, set your alerts n alarms a todays ranges n go do those errands you should have done last week.
YMH0 - Back at 9900 level again
Although still very quiet in Forex Land, stocks seem to have someone very interested to hold the line at 9900 in the dow and 1055 in the mini s+p. Crude also has an admirer at 71.00
Market seems quite happy to do nothing... so far
Markets seem quite happy to do nothing thus far today, with the price action in most pairings backing itself into forever narrowing pennants in the defined ranges set by Asia and European trade....
As far as the order books go they look like this -
Order central: Monday
As far as the order books go they look like this -
Order central: Monday
- Russian bids in EUR/USD at 1.3620/30; Offers 1.3715/20
- Stop-loss sell orders in Cable at 1.5480
- Exporter offers at 89.90/90 in USD/JPY, bids at 88.80/90
- Japanese importer bids in EUR/JPY at121.50
Monday, 8 February 2010
Pretty much back where we started
Its been a choppy ol monday with prices pretty much back where we started the day in Asia. I am mindful of the fact that the 4 hrly charts have turned against the current bullish Usd trend, with fridays closes clearly warning of a retracement, but, as i said in my inicial update the shorter tf´s just dont look right to me here...Nyk boys should be coming in soon to add life to this party.
On the fundamental side , the data cupboard is bare today with nothing of any relevance coming out of G7 over the weekend. There will be mounting speculation on the thursday meeting of Eurozone heads coming up with a possible solution to the Greek crisis.
I missed the topping formation in Eur/Gbp, but have set an alarm should we see a spike back above 0.8785.
On the fundamental side , the data cupboard is bare today with nothing of any relevance coming out of G7 over the weekend. There will be mounting speculation on the thursday meeting of Eurozone heads coming up with a possible solution to the Greek crisis.
I missed the topping formation in Eur/Gbp, but have set an alarm should we see a spike back above 0.8785.
Cancel Cable order
Buy 1/4 @ 1.5550 oco 1.5630
Might just be able to squeeze a lil more outa this one...again patience is the key.
Might just be able to squeeze a lil more outa this one...again patience is the key.
Commodities getting the wobbles
Oil, Gold and Silver are starting to get the wobbles. USDX - Dollar Index back above the open. Keep an eye on that Usd/Cad at 1.0720.
The Major Japanese Candlestick Patterns
A Doji is formed when the open and the close are the same or very close. The length of the shadows are not important. The Japanese interpretation is that the bulls and the bears are conflicting. The appearance of a Doji should alert the investor of major indecision.
The Gravestone Doji is formed when the open and the close occur at the low of the day. It is found occasionally at market bottoms, but it's forte is calling market tops. The name, Gravestone Doji, is derived by the formation of the signal looking like a gravestone.
The Long-legged Doji has one or two very long shadows. Long-legged Doji's are often signs of market tops. If the open and the close are in the center of the session's trading range, the signal is referred to as a Rickshaw Man. . The Japanese believe these signals to mean that the trend has "lost it's sense of direction."
The Bullish Engulfing Pattern is formed at the end of a downtrend. A white body is formed that opens lower and closes higher than the black candle open and close from the previous day. This complete engulfing of the previous day's body represents overwhelming buying pressure dissipating the selling pressure.
The Bearish Engulfing Pattern is directly opposite to the bullish pattern. It is created at the end of an up-trending market. The black real body completely engulfs the previous day's white body. This shows that the bears are now overwhelming the bulls.
The Dark Cloud Cover is a two-day bearish pattern found at the end of an upturn or at the top of a congested trading area. The first day of the pattern is a strong white real body. The second day's price opens higher than any of the previous day's trading range.
The Piercing Pattern is a bottom reversal. It is a two candle pattern at the end of a declining market. The first day real body is black. The second day is a long white body. The white day opens sharply lower, under the trading range of the previous day. The price comes up to where it closes above the 50% level of the black body.
Hammer and Hanging-man are candlesticks with long lower shadows and small real bodies. The bodies are at the top of the trading session. This pattern at the bottom of the down-trend is called a Hammer. It is hammering out a base. The Japanese word is takuri, meaning "trying to gauge the depth".
The Morning Star is a bottom reversal signal. Like the morning star, the planet Mercury, it foretells the sunrise, or the rising prices. The pattern consists of a three day signal.
The Evening Star is the exact opposite of the morning star. The evening star, the planet Venus, occurs just before the darkness sets in. The evening star is found at the end of the uptrend.
A Shooting Star sends a warning that the top is near. It got its name by looking like a shooting star.
The Shooting Star Formation, at the bottom of a trend, is a bullish signal. It is known as an inverted hammer. It is important to wait for the bullish verification. Now that we have seen some of the basic signals, let's take a look at the added power of some of the other formations.
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