Daily Trade Recap

Headlines:

• Die Welt: Lautenschlager, Mersch and Coeure oppose Draghi’s QE plans
• Draghi: The governing council will reassess in the new year
• Draghi: Early 2015 doesn’t mean the next meeting
• Draghi: For QE we don’t need unanimity
• Draghi: Staff have stepped up preparations for further measures
• Draghi: Wording on balance sheet wasn’t unanimous
• Draghi: Buying foreign assets would be tantamount to FX intervention
• Draghi: Inflation expectations still in a range that’s consistent on price stability
• ECB sees 2015 GDP at 1.0% versus 1.6% in Sept
• ECB sees 2015 inflation 0.7% vs 1.3% in Sept
• Latest projections don’t account for recent oil fall
• ECB projections shows investment to crumble in the Eurozone
• Constancio: ECB hasn’t taken any decision on QE
• Weidmann and Lautenschlaeger were against shift in ECB balance sheet language
• BBG: ECB said to prepare broad-based QE package for January meeting
• BoE leaves rates unchanged.
• BOJ’s Sato sees possibility of further slowdown in CPI gains
• Fed’s Fischer says ECB govt bond purchases would have positive effects
• Putin keen to curb speculation on rouble

Data:

• US initial jobless claims 297k vs 295k exp
• November 2014 Canadian Ivey PMI 56.9 vs 52.5 exp
• UK Halifax house price index Nov mm +0.4% vs +0.3% exp
• German Markit construction PMI Nov 53.5 vs 51.5 prev
• Eurozone retail PMI Nov 48.9 vs 47.0 prev

Comment:

It was all about the ECB after the BoE non event.

Whippy session overnight with the market reacting to yet another ECB QE no-yes-possibly-well maybe... Circus. As the comments and headlines flew out of Europe the news algos went into overdrive, sometimes running over each other in the process. In the end though, we aren’t that far from where the shenanigans began ahead of tonight’s US jobs jamboree.

The news algo's weren't just active in the Fx markets and were flat out in overnight equity markets as they pushed the indices from highs to lows and back again as the ECB news, data and headlines hit the tickers.

In the end though, we are pretty much back to where we began the day... The Dax30 was the only casualty on the day as a result of an ECB failure to launch (QE), it closes the day down 112 at 9901.25 after another failure above 10k.

The S&P500 sits in aftermarket trade at 2071.88, down ½ a point or 2 tics after a 15 ¾ handle range. The Dow30 trades at 17889, down 7 after a 128 point range with Energy stocks weighing.

The Nasdaq100 trades at 4313.48, higher by 0.98 of a point.

Closer to home the Nikkei225 closes lower by 40 at 17845 and the Aus200 sits at 5370, up 3.

Another muted session in the commodity sector. Gold trades lower at 1205.10, down $2.93. Silver at $16.45, up 6 cents and Copper higher at 2.91, up 4 cents.

WTI Crude currently sits right on the important 66.65 level, down 70 cents. A daily close below would encourage further losses.

Fx markets were all over the shop and close mixed. Eur finished the day firmer with EurUsd at 1.2377, higher by 64 but well off its 1.2455 high. Against the Pound, the Euro sits firmer at 0.7896, higher by 50 points.

Cable closes lower (mainly due to EurGbp) at 1.5672, down 18.

UsdChf was a big mover on the day trading in a 146 point range going out at 0.9712, down 61 but well off the earlier 0.9649 lows. Interestingly, EurChf saw sellers pushing down into solid 1.2020 bids.

UsdJpy finally broke the 120 handle after a few early attempts but couldn’t hold above. We close at 119.77, 9 down from where we kicked off. EurJpy sits firmer up 71 at 148.30 after a failed run at 149.00.

The commodity bloc close mixed on the day. The Loonie completely ignored the better Ivey PMI as weakness in WTI and Gold weighed, UsdCad closes up 17 at 1.1382. The beleaguered Aussie just cant catch a break after the strong Retail Sales data yesterday. Crosses did most of the damage overnight and sees the local unit go out down 17 at 0.8379. Daily channel support sits at 0.8330.

Kiwi closes higher on the day mainly through AudNzd cross selling. We close the day at 0.7776, higher by 27.

The Day Ahead:

Biggest data day of the month is upon us with the main focus of traders being tonights US Non Farm Payroll data release. There is nothing major due for Asia with just German Factory orders and Eurozone Q3 GDP before the US session.