Wednesday, 3 December 2014

Daily Trade Recap 

Headlines:

  • Fed’s Lacker says Fed should stay focused on goals
  • Fed’s Fischer says low oil price good for US growth
  • Fischer: If inflation heads lower Fed will keep rates at near zero
  • Bini-Smaghi: ECB mandate needs an update

Data:

  • October 2014 US construction spending 1.1% vs 0.6% exp m/m
  • November 2014 US New York ISM 62.4 vs 55.0 exp
  • US Nov vehicle sales 17.2m vs 16.8m exp
  • New Zealand Fonterra global dairy price falls 1.1%
  • UK Markit/CIPS construction PMI Nov 59.4 vs 61.0 exp
  • October 2014 eurozone PPI -0.4% vs -0.3% exp m/m
  • German car production and exports down sharply in November

Comment:

As I suggested yesterday, it was a 'Back n Fill' day over in the metals and energies with USD and US equities rallying on better than expected data and hawkish comments out of the FED's vice-chair Fîscher.


The better than expected data had US equity markets on the move in overnight trade with the S&P closing higher by 14.75 handles at 2065.88. The Dow30 is up 108 at 17865 with Chevron and ExonnMobil the best performers. The Nasdaq100 goes out at 4308.23, higher by 20.5 points.
The other stand out was the Japanese Nikkei225 at 17770, up 330 points. The AUS200 gave back some of yesterdays early gains as metals and oil gave back a little of yesterdays mammoth moves and closes at 5277, up 32. The German Dax30 closes lower at 9967 after the brief foray above 10,000 didn’t last with German car production weighing on the index.

The metals gave back a fraction of yesterdays gains helped along by the firmer USD. Gold goes out down $8.45 at 1197.32, Silver at 16.43, down 9 cents. Both precious metals remain in the medium term down channel with only a break of yesterdays highs signalling some consolidation to the last 5 months of decline. Copper sits at 2.887, down ½ a cent after an early swoon to 2.843.

WTI Crude closes the day at 67.63, down $1.37 but off its lows after testing the 50% level of yesterdays Marabuzo candle at 66.65. Near term levels to watch are a break of 66.65//69.66.

Over in Fxland it was all about the USD with the DXY surging to a 4 and a half year high. Strong data, Fischer's comments and US Treasuries on the decline pushed UsdJpy high and we go out just off the highs at 119.23, up 92 on the day.

The Euro saw losses all around with EurUsd down 85 points at 1.2383. EurGbp sits at 0.7918 down 7. EurJpy sits a few points higher at 147.67 but off the 148.18 highs. EurAud closes down 53 at 1.4650.

Cable gave up all of yesterdays gains as weaker than expected construction data weighed. We close down 96 points at 1.5637.

The commodity bloc was on the backfoot after yesterdays moves. Aussie in particular closes lower after the post RBA moves were eroded as the US unit rallied and commods eased back. We open Sydney trade at 0.8451, lower by 27 on the session. Likewise the bird gave back nearly all of yesterdays gains closing lower by 66 points at 0.7795.The Loonie sank with the UsdCad back up above the 1.14 handle at 1.1402 up 83 points and through the 50% Marabuzo line of yesterdays candle.

The Day Ahead:

The most important data points of the week being tomorrows ECB meeting and Fridays US jobs jamboree are now the focus of most traders until then in the Asian zone today we have Aussie Q3 GDP, Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI and the HSBC Services PMI the main data points to watch.



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