Given the current massive unwind of Eur and to a lesser extent Gbp shorts and Yen longs, the Aud seems particularly vulnerable at least in the short term on the crosses and hence will probably struggle against the USD as well.
EurAud has now cleanly taken out the daily 50 ema and the 23.6 fib res at 1.2527. Obvious next port of call would be the 38.2 at 1.2771.
GbpAud whilst still inside the recent sideways to lower channel trade bounded by 1.4841 then the 50 ema at 1.4918. This current drive higher looks to be gaining legs.
The 4 hourly chart confirms the notion with a clear AB = CD pattern unfolding confirmed with the fib confluence of a 70.7 - 141.4 retrace and extension to the target zone at 1.4945.
To confirm lastly we can see that AudCad is also forming an AB = CD pattern on the 4 hourly time frame
where AB leg - 1.0750 to 1.0596 retraced to the 78.6 Fib thus ideally the fib target would be the 127.2 extension from point C at 1.0719 to target 1.0563.
AB = CD comes in at 1.0566
Saturday, 25 February 2012
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