From a weekly technical perspective, clearing and a weekly close above the 61.8 retracement at 103.83 of the 147.26 - 33.56 2008/2009 collapse would have us looking at the next fib targets of 113.95 - 70.7%, 122.93 - 78.6, and 134.30 - 88.6. with the obvious favourite of 114.80 - Last years high.
Moving down a notch to the Daily chart another possible target area may be unfolding of an AB = CD target at 120.91 which comes in close to the 113.0 fib extension at 119.98. But Gartley practitioners would not agree with that scenario as BC was only a 38.2 retracement of the AB leg.
From a macro perspective the obvious tensions with Iran and better (kinda...) data coming both from Europe and the US has contributed to the case for higher crude prices as has a general slide in the USD. On the flipside though, I really wonder just how long it will be before we see the US Government (Already in full re-elect Obama mode... Do you really believe the recent NFP ??) begin to release its ever growing SPR - http://www.spr.doe.gov/ stockpiles to dampen any negative side effects on both the flailing recovery in the US and the re-election of President Obama.
One last piece to the puzzle is shown in the COT data which shows that currently we are at 5 year record levels with Swaps at 5 year highest short positions and Producers/Users at 5 year smallest short positions.
Whilst this trend remains strong I do not urge trying to pick a top,but I do urge caution on late longs joining the party.
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