Wednesday, 3 March 2010

Update

Well, not much to write about today...  Fundamentals have not changed a great deal either.
Greece is announcing its austerity measures today with the EU commision due  to deliver their verdict later in the  afternoon. Sounds to me like the Greek PM is using  ¨if we go down, you will go down ¨ line against the Euro commission. Although the Greeks  have  not officially asked for financial support, time is running out with major  funding commitments just arround  the corner.
The Ukraine is now fundamentally leaderless with a no confidence vote passed , much to the delight of  the  Russians.
China also featured overnight with various officials outlining quite clearly that they are focusing on inflation and the real estate bubbles. I wont be surprised to see further fiscal and monetary tightening moves coming.
In the UK the torries are trying hard to build back the lead that they once enjoyed in the poles, although not much has changed  with both sides relatively equal and a hung parliment still very much on the cards.

All eyes will be on the Boe and ECB tommorrow, with a relatively light data calendar today. The main event this week will be friday´s Non Farm Payrolls. I am still not sure why this number holds any sway over the markets at all, given the fact that it appears to be a number based on purely fictional data and  attracts  more revisions than a devout muslim travelling through a US airport. Still it moves  markets...so we have to be ready for anything.

Markets wise the USD is weaker against most majors today especially against both Gold and Silver but marginally so. Charts are a mess withchoppy price action reaking havoc on those that follow indicators and oscillators and correlations also out of whack. Of note however is that again the Usd/Cad did lead this retracement by a day or two with Aussie  following along behind.

As far as positions and trading go, I am still quite happy to be short Yen crosses and looking to establish long USD positions but there are no strong signals as yet to enter the market. Eur/Gbp short yesterday failed to reach our entry level and has more or less traded sideways forming a pennant. I still favour a retracement of the rally from 0.8600 but will wait for the chart to set up a strong sell  signal.
Silver break above channel res at 17.00 puts this position in danger of being incorrect in the short term but thus far we are holding under the 61.8 fib. Stochastics and rsi on both hourly and 4 hourly charts are in over bought position, thus I will hold the short for the moment.

Open positions
Aud/Jpy - short 2 units @ average 81.35  (82.50 / 80.20)  Stop 80.85
Eur/Jpy - short 1 unit 124.85 stop 122.00
Eur/Chf - long 1 unit @ 1.4625 stop 1.4525
Silver - short 1 unit @ 16.95 stop break above 61.8 fib 17.25

Working Orders
Buy 1 unit Eur/Chf @ 1.4600 stop 1.4500
Buy 2 units Eur/Chf @ 1.4575 stop 1.4500

Watching 
Long Usd/Chf , Short Eur/Usd Aud/Usd.


More a little later

1 comment:

Puks said...

Great synopsis yet again.