Outlook remains the same

Yesterdays outlook remains the same. Although we did not reach outer limits at which I would have enterred , today thus far a reversal is currently unfolding  of  the last 18 hours of price action.

Dollar pairs are mixed with the USDX close to near term resistance at 80.29 and hrly 169 ema, prefer the idea that near term we see another bout of USD weakness first, before a reversal. Wealso have a raft of US data kicking off at 08.30 am NYK.

08:30 USD     Core CPI (MoM) 0.10%   0.10%    -0.10%    (Advertisement)  Core CPI  Print     Report an Error Actual 0.10%   Forecast 0.10%   Previous -0.10%   The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   High Source Of Report:   U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics - Department of Labor Release URL:   http://www.bls.gov/cpi/  More   08:30 USD     Initial Jobless Claims  457.00K   455.00K    462.00K    (Advertisement)  Initial Jobless Claims  Print     Report an Error Actual 457.00K   Forecast 455.00K   Previous 462.00K   The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   High Source Of Report:   Department of Labor Release URL:   http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm  More   08:30 USD     CPI (MoM) 0.00%   0.10%    0.20%    (Advertisement)  CPI  Print     Report an Error Actual 0.00%   Forecast 0.10%   Previous 0.20%   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   High Source Of Report:   U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics - Department of Labor Release URL:   http://www.bls.gov/cpi/  More   08:30 USD     Current Account  -116.00B   -120.00B    -108.00B    (Advertisement)  Current Account  Print     Report an Error Actual -116.00B   Forecast -120.00B   Previous -108.00B   The Current Account index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods, services, and interest payments (exports minus imports). Export data can give reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. The goods portion is the same as the Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the USD. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   Medium Source Of Report:   Bureau of Economic Analysis Release URL:   http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/transactions/t..  More   10:00 USD     Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index      18.00    17.60    (Advertisement)  Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index  Print     Report an Error Actual -   Forecast 18.00   Previous 17.60   The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Philadelphia district. Any reading above 0 indicates improving conditions of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 0 indicates worsening conditions. It's concluded from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. It can be of some help in forecasting the US ISM. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   Medium Source Of Report:   Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Release URL:   http://www.philadelphiafed.org/  More   10:00 USD     Leading Index (MoM)     0.10%    0.30%

(Advertisement)  Core CPI  Print     Report an Error Actual 0.10% Forecast 0.10% Previous -0.10% The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.     Details         Chart         History     Importance:   High Source Of Report:   U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics - Department of Labor Release URL:   http://www.bls.gov/cpi/  More

This being said I prefer to look at the crosses for trade opportunities and wait for better levels to buy the USD against Eur, Gbp, Chf and Aud.

Of most interest right here is the strength of both Cad and Kiwi against the comparatively weaker pairs of Chf and Gbp.

Look at selling Cad/Chf above 1.0500. Res lies at 1.0493 then 1.0516. Sup lies at 1.0443 then the 200 lwma hrly at 1.0421. Daily and 4 hrly charts remain in the strong uptrend since Nov 2009 and we are approaching the previous highs  not seen  since sep 2008 inbetween 1.05/1.07. Longer term traders may want to watch indicators and price for a topping formation on the daily and 4 hourly charts for entries.

Gbp/Cad I would leave for the moment as it looks as though GBP still has  further to fall, but watch reaction at the 61.8 fib at 1.5376.

Nzd/Chf looks attractive for a short opportunity above 0.7600 with possible triple top on the 4 hrly chart at 0.7610.Stop could be placed above the previous high at 0.7639. Immediate support lies at uptrend line currently at 0.7537 then hrly 200 ema.

Like Gbp/Cad Gbp/Nzd also has a similar formation  and threatens to break support at 2.1292 which also represents the 61.8 fib support.