Metals breaking out topside

Silver leading the pack..

Usd/Cad 4Hrly SHS

 SHS - Head and Shoulder pattern on the 4hrly timeframe.  Usd/Cad has now broken under strong support at 0.9829 after breaking the SHS neckline at 0.9852 and has been in a sideways consolidation pattern under that resistance for the past day. The measured move would target 0.9667.

QE3 for Europe ! Who wudda thunk it

News out regarding swap lines between  BoE, BoJ, ECB, SNB and Fed...    Basically we have reached Defcon 1 as far as liquidity in the European Banking sector is concerned thus the Fed is basically flooding the Eurozone with Dollar liquidity.

Immediately, the Dollar is diving against everything except metals. Stocks are running higher with European Banking stocks skyrocketing.

The biggest question is whether the market will now realise that indeed we have been sailing along a knifes edge and whether this action is in fact the preparation  before a Greek Default ?  What will be the effects of such an event on the other PIIGS especially the two 600 lb. gorillas in the room Italy and Spain ?

Whatever the coming events, this is not a market for the faint hearted nor the inexperienced.

Good Luck, and keep it tight.

Stock Indexes

Two horrible choppy days but are we finally getting to an area to re short.  The two to watch are the Dax which has been leading the pack and the Nasdaq.   Measured moves have been now completed basis the 4 hrly moves and we are getting onto channel and fib extension areas.

 

AudUsd

The Head and Shoulder pattern completed almost perfectly. Currently seeing a nice bounce out of the 1.0190 area.
http://screencast.com/t/GwVFGAvxZGEV

Aud/Usd 240 minute chart

On this day

It would be remiss of me not to say a few words about this day so so many years ago.
Our world changed forever.. If your a tinfoil hat wearer, then you know. If you dont believe in the conjecture surrounding 9/11 then I also understand.

But people lost their lives, wives lost husbands, husbands lost wives, children and grandchildren lost fathers and grandfathers, mothers and grandmothers...

Take a moment out of your day to think of the lost and for those that lost.
 
Humanity is all we really have. Tell those that you love, that you love them, each and every single day. Whether your Cristian, Jew, Muslim, Budist, Taoist.. what ever your faith.. Give thanks for the loved ones that surround you and those that fill your life with purpose and joy... even those that torment you.

Just a thought!

Ok lets give this a go again

Given the massive amount of intervention in various forms in these currencies I have pretty much just traded Stock Indexes, Crude Oil and one or two currency pairs.. Namely Aud, Kiwi and Euro...

 The rest are just too hard right here. Swiss / anything I have completely removed from my charts for the wee while as they are way way too open to spoofs. Yen pairs a little less so, but the risk reward profile also is just not there to bother risking your capital.

Right here, we are on the brink of some vey very serious stuff. As those that I speak to and advise on a daily basis know, I am expecting a major rise in the USD to commence. Stock Indexes to revisit 2008 lows and commodities to drop.

Ok lets start with Crude Oil - Hourly Chart -  Thus far we are retracing / copying the move of September 1-2-5.

OK Ill be trying to post everything I am looking at this week

Stocks have almost met their daily targets of - 1274.25 ES, 12003 YM and 2220 for the EQ. AudNzd is sinking further so all is good.  Will try and keep the Blog updated on a daily basis with all of the trades except the scalp trades on the ES, trading  a  new 5 minute setup today almost killed me but was quite  good. Ill share the setup tom.

Well Im back

After many months of toil, struggle n personal hell.... The ship has righted herself n we are ready to set sail....  Chart setup is pretty basic - Hourly candles , a 34 or 55 ema depending on the pair, daily pivots, slow stoch 11,3,5 and MACD standard or 3,11,5.  Basically  its  pretty  simple.  Draw  ur  resistance and support , draw your fibo points ..  if  we  are  overbought on  the  stoch n macd , res has  stopped us  then  sell.....  pretty  easy.   But  I  do  use  alot of  correlations. Gold, Silver, Stocks and of course the numerous crosses. 

Well its the middle on Jan...

Still plugging away. The moving averages have proven to work well when trends get going and have yielded very good runs...heres the BUT.... as always  the chop around the moving averages and the indicators just didnt cut it and as a result the system just didnt hold up to my expectations. It became cumbersome and awkward... Far from the simplification tht I was seeking.

Ive gone back to the drawing board exploring other options enabling me to combine one system across various timeframes then finding the right EA to manage the open and pendings... It all takes  time, so bare with me.

Ive left the publisher attached to the demo account which I use to construct various ideas and systems so you can see where stuff is  happning. Dont follow it as far as trading goes for God,s sake.. It is there as information only.

Still plugging away

Sorry, I am still fiddling around with the moving average system whilst at the same time moving house and then country. I{ll be heading back to Oz for a wee while.....maybe even Singapore. Although nothing to do with the main system, I couldnt help myself yesterday as quite a few opportunities presented themselves all at once.

Gold Update

Just an update of what I spotted earlier in the week. Gold has indeed formed the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulder pattern. Obviously its all upto what happens at the neckline...

Cable - Update

Price fell a few pips short of the 34 point hurdle and has snapped back to trigger the short at 1.5766. Although we are only in testing mode, I am of the mind that I should tighten the stop a little more from 55 to 34 points. Also of concern is the CCI, should it close back above the 0 line at the closing of this bar/candle, I am thinking it may be more prudent to close the trade completely and wait for a stronger signal to reenter.

Ok price closed a tad under the moving average causing the CCI to close back above the 0 line albeit by a whisker. The trade was closed at 1.57644.

This will help to define the method of exiting a trade should one of the indicators fail to confirm after the trigger. Should cable continue lower then maybe a better method is to just leave the trade running with a tighter stop and closing on a failure of two of the initial trade confirmations being met.

Cable

Although I am still finetuning the various accompanying indicator settings a potential short GbpUsd setup is unfolding. Ideally this is how it looks -

• Moving average has been broken and closed under. Price has not passed the 34 pip barrier from the moving average trigger. 
• Laguerre breaking down from bullish mode.
• CCI Histgram crossing down through the 0 line. A little contentious as we really need this candle to close in order for a break of the 0 line... but  lets  see how this works anyways.
  
• Trix has turned bearish.
  
  Trade -   Short 1 Unit at 1.5766     
  Hard Stop 1.5821  - 55 points   
  TP 1 - 1/2 Unit @ 55 points - spread , 
  TP 2 - 1/4 Unit @ 89 points - spread . 
  Stop moves to Break Even (BE) at 55 points.
  Balance 1/4 Unit trailed until a reversal trade is generated .
  
  Thats pretty much the gist of the whole thing. There is still alot of finetuning  and testing of the various components to be done  and only time shall tell as markets test the method. But lets see how it goes.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

Three Little Rules - Jaime Coleman at ForexLive

Three little rules

Jamie’s rules for forex traders:

1. Understand the basics of technical analysis. You don’t need to be a quant-geek to be successful, but understanding the first ten chapters or so of the classic Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by John J. Murphy would be a great start.
2. When the fundamental and technical outlooks for a currency differ, always side with the techs.
3. When the fundamental and technical outlooks for a currency converge, go for it! Take a more aggressive position than normal.

Still fiddling about

Whilst Im adjusting moving averages and indicator settings for various pairs, I may as well just start off with keeping track of the 30 minute EurUsd and the 60 minute E-mini S+P and 60 minute E-mini Dow for the moment.

From the above both stock index charts are crossing back above the moving average although indicators are still bearish after yesterdays  reversal.

30 min EurUsd Update

50% Balance was stopped at entry . No new signals as yet in Eur. Nett gain would have been 22.5 pips / lot .

Still setting up, but lets have a look at the basic idea

Whilst Im just getting back into these markets and getting comfortable with the method, I thought I would go over an example of when and when not to trade. Below is a 30 min EurUsd chart.

1. Stand Aside - Although the moving average has been penetrated as has the Bollinger Band Stop and Laguerre has crossed up through the 0.25 and 0.5 area,  we can see that both the shorter CCI and Trix are both still in negative territory.

2. Stand Aside - This time we have the Trix still holding above 0.85 which is bullish and the longer CCI in bullish mode.

3. Wait - This time all we are waiting for is the Trix to swing into buy mode. The very next bar Trix swings into positive buy mode. Action - Place a buy order at the moving average, Which in this case would be at 1.33165 and wait.

4. Wait - As a sidenote, if price hovers above or below the moving average for more thn 4-5 bars I find it safer to cancel the order and wait. In this case we have 7 candles until the price retraces back to the moving average and closes under it. Hmm what now? Indicators are all in buy mode, thus we wait and watch as price unfolds. On bar 4. price again closes back above the moving average so with indicators in BUY mode we place an order to buy at the moving average. 1.3319. As I am still refining the method the initial stop will be set at 38.2 pips by the EA with the initial 1st TP of 50% at 55 pips.

5. The BUY is triggered and we are long. Bought x lots at 1.3319. Stop 1.32808. TP 1 (55pips)  - 50% at 1.3374, TP 2 ( 89 pips)  - 30% at 1.3408. Break Entry stop once we have reached 55 pip TP 1.

The trade has unfolded and we closed 50% of the trade at 1.3374. The stop is moved to break entry. Next profit level is at 89 points from the moving average. At this point there is a certain amount of leeway as to how you manage the rest of the trade. As far as the secondary take profit goes and trailing the stop.

As we are using a 100 period moving average the chance that a trending move develops is higher than if we were to use a shorter moving average, thus, it is always a good idea to leave a little 20-30% to run should that trend develop.

Another tool to use in defining your TP levels is the use of the ATR projections. In this case the 89 point target is slightly under the top ATR 2 level at 1.3438 . You could place a limit sell order for the 30% at 1.3438 and turn off the EA or simply adjust the EA fto that rate.

OK, well I hope that helps in explaining what I am looking at and the very basic idea of how I will trade this moving average based system. I will continue to adjust and refine the method until I am content.

Boring day to start off.... Anyone interested in Gold ??

Gold
Possible Head and Shoulder  formation unfolding on the longer charts...