Whilst Im just getting back into these markets and getting comfortable with the method, I thought I would go over an example of when and when not to trade. Below is a 30 min EurUsd chart.
1. Stand Aside - Although the moving average has been penetrated as has the Bollinger Band Stop and Laguerre has crossed up through the 0.25 and 0.5 area, we can see that both the shorter CCI and Trix are both still in negative territory.
2. Stand Aside - This time we have the Trix still holding above 0.85 which is bullish and the longer CCI in bullish mode.
3. Wait - This time all we are waiting for is the Trix to swing into buy mode. The very next bar Trix swings into positive buy mode. Action - Place a buy order at the moving average, Which in this case would be at 1.33165 and wait.
4. Wait - As a sidenote, if price hovers above or below the moving average for more thn 4-5 bars I find it safer to cancel the order and wait. In this case we have 7 candles until the price retraces back to the moving average and closes under it. Hmm what now? Indicators are all in buy mode, thus we wait and watch as price unfolds. On bar 4. price again closes back above the moving average so with indicators in BUY mode we place an order to buy at the moving average. 1.3319. As I am still refining the method the initial stop will be set at 38.2 pips by the EA with the initial 1st TP of 50% at 55 pips.
5. The BUY is triggered and we are long. Bought x lots at 1.3319. Stop 1.32808. TP 1 (55pips) - 50% at 1.3374, TP 2 ( 89 pips) - 30% at 1.3408. Break Entry stop once we have reached 55 pip TP 1.
The trade has unfolded and we closed 50% of the trade at 1.3374. The stop is moved to break entry. Next profit level is at 89 points from the moving average. At this point there is a certain amount of leeway as to how you manage the rest of the trade. As far as the secondary take profit goes and trailing the stop.
As we are using a 100 period moving average the chance that a trending move develops is higher than if we were to use a shorter moving average, thus, it is always a good idea to leave a little 20-30% to run should that trend develop.
Another tool to use in defining your TP levels is the use of the ATR projections. In this case the 89 point target is slightly under the top ATR 2 level at 1.3438 . You could place a limit sell order for the 30% at 1.3438 and turn off the EA or simply adjust the EA fto that rate.
OK, well I hope that helps in explaining what I am looking at and the very basic idea of how I will trade this moving average based system. I will continue to adjust and refine the method until I am content.
Tuesday, 7 December 2010
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