Thursday, 23 February 2012
UsdCad
Watching the Loonie with interest. The 4 hourly chart remains bullish although last nights high at 1.0019 should have completed this upward move as both the AB = CD and 78.6 fib retracement come in at that point.
Wednesday, 22 February 2012
Cable
4 Hourly Cable is currently tracing out the CD leg of an AB = CD pattern ( AB - 1.5928 to 1.5644 ) from the C point at 1.59795 with the AB = CD target at 1.55965 with Fib confluence at 1.5580 - being both the 127.2 fib extension after a 78.6 retrace of the AB leg to point C and also the 50 fib of the XA leg ( 1.5233 - 1.5928 ).
Indicators are bearish and a break and failure under the 50 and 68 emas adds support to the move lower to the next level of support at 1.5734 which has been a pivotal area and also the 61.8 fib of the 1.5644 - 1.58795 BC leg then target area..
Indicators are bearish and a break and failure under the 50 and 68 emas adds support to the move lower to the next level of support at 1.5734 which has been a pivotal area and also the 61.8 fib of the 1.5644 - 1.58795 BC leg then target area..
Tuesday, 21 February 2012
ESH2 - AB=CD Target met
The Initial target of the AB=CD has been met at 1368.25 with a Presidents Day shortened session closing the day with a spinning top. Overhead we still have the May 2011 previous high at 1372.5 and the 161.8 fib extension target at 1376.5 to have a crack at.
Whilst weekly charts are a little out of my league as far as trading goes, they remain very bullish and suggest targets @ 1455.25 ( 78.6//127.2 ext) then 1552 which would be the culmination of the current CD leg of the 665.50-1216.25 AB leg.
The current pull back on the hourly charts should ideally target the 1360 Sunday gap.
Whilst weekly charts are a little out of my league as far as trading goes, they remain very bullish and suggest targets @ 1455.25 ( 78.6//127.2 ext) then 1552 which would be the culmination of the current CD leg of the 665.50-1216.25 AB leg.
The current pull back on the hourly charts should ideally target the 1360 Sunday gap.
Short and Sweet: It’s a Bull Market !
21 February, 2012
Short and Sweet: It’s a Bull Market !
As expected progress continues to be made in the direction of a Greek resolution, even the European equity markets are starting to rally strongly, leaving no excuse for the US or Australian markets.
There is only upward acceleration at hand, and at bigger percentages than perhaps any of us expect.
Here is the picture in a nutshell:
Market sentiment has been “global recession” at best. Many feared worse.
Meanwhile actual price action has been steady gains for months, even with the overwhelming doom in the media.
What does this mean? There has been a real “need to buy” in some quarters, just to keep minimal stock portfolio levels in place, as the world has become increasingly awash with capital.
There is a tidal wave of global equity market investment coming that would dwarf even that of the movie 2012.
It is in fact 2012, the movie got it right, but its is a global flood of money that will catastrophically drive equity and commodity prices to all time historical records. In fact many stocks already are at all time historical highs, now watch the rest of the market do the same.
The favoured sectors remain Australian mining companies, and European fashion houses.
We have been buyers on the dip for all of the last two years, as well as having correctly heralded the start of a 5-15 year Grand Bull Market, just two days after the absolute low in 2009. So our long term clients are well set for this, but even if you have just joined us, it is not too late to do very well out of this Grand Bull Market. This next up wave, which is only just starting, will be the biggest of them all, quite possibly the largest and fastest rally stock markets have ever seen.
Do the math, record low levels of investment, a booming global economy, and enormous wealth and cash sitting in the hands of investors wondering what to do with it.
As expected progress continues to be made in the direction of a Greek resolution, even the European equity markets are starting to rally strongly, leaving no excuse for the US or Australian markets.
There is only upward acceleration at hand, and at bigger percentages than perhaps any of us expect.
Here is the picture in a nutshell:
Market sentiment has been “global recession” at best. Many feared worse.
Meanwhile actual price action has been steady gains for months, even with the overwhelming doom in the media.
What does this mean? There has been a real “need to buy” in some quarters, just to keep minimal stock portfolio levels in place, as the world has become increasingly awash with capital.
There is a tidal wave of global equity market investment coming that would dwarf even that of the movie 2012.
It is in fact 2012, the movie got it right, but its is a global flood of money that will catastrophically drive equity and commodity prices to all time historical records. In fact many stocks already are at all time historical highs, now watch the rest of the market do the same.
The favoured sectors remain Australian mining companies, and European fashion houses.
We have been buyers on the dip for all of the last two years, as well as having correctly heralded the start of a 5-15 year Grand Bull Market, just two days after the absolute low in 2009. So our long term clients are well set for this, but even if you have just joined us, it is not too late to do very well out of this Grand Bull Market. This next up wave, which is only just starting, will be the biggest of them all, quite possibly the largest and fastest rally stock markets have ever seen.
Do the math, record low levels of investment, a booming global economy, and enormous wealth and cash sitting in the hands of investors wondering what to do with it.
Chief Economist
White Crane Group
Sydney, Australia.
+61 (0) 423 950 427
clifford@whitecranegroup.com.au
www.whitecranegroup.com.au
Monday, 20 February 2012
Of Course Markets Are Going Higher
20 February, 2012
Of Course Markets Are Going Higher
- China Reserve Requirements Cut
- Greek Deal in the Bag
- Gold Safe Haven Consolidation
China has cut the reserve ratio requirements for banks to 20.5%. Yes, that’s right the reserve requirement for banks in China is 20.5%. China continues to deliver the world’s best economic management, fine tuning a variety of measures to as near as perfectly influence different sectors of the economy, sometimes in opposing directions. Yet they make it work, and work well.
If the US had 20% reserve ratio requirements there would not have been a sub-prime crisis, there would not have been a GFC, even with all the over supply construction. It just would not have happened. Compare that policy debacle, and that is what it was, with a strongly growing economy, increasingly and dominantly domestic demand driven, massive population shifts, and still once the authorities decided to, they have delivered property price stability across the nation, with overall economic growth still close to 9%. A fantastic achievement you would be hard pressed to find anywhere else in the world.
Equity markets, especially Australian resource stocks, will respond positively to this latest fine tuning by China.
Greek resolution is in the bag. Should any member of the union vote against this deal, they would be considered a pariah by the majority, and especially by France and Germany. That would be a far greater price to pay than the funds being requested for the rescue package.
As we have said all along, Europe is already stronger for the experience. It will be a closer and more responsible union, and go from strength to strength. Rather than just the resolution of a difficult period, this is the beginning of a new enlightenment, well at least fiscally! I know it sounds repetitive, but Europe will be, and most probably already is, the most fiscally responsible region in the world.
While some argue this will be a drag on economic growth, what the situation really does, is create a new beginning for the already healthy private sector, and a greater availability of capital available to that private sector. Think less public spending equals more productive investment.
While many talk of fear of recession, I see this as being the start of a new golden age in Europe.
Equity markets can only respond positively, and begin that faster rally I have been speaking of, as the Greek package is approved.
Gold is consolidating as more and more good news emerges around the world, just as forecast here in The White Crane Report, for exactly now, many months ago. It was always going to be mid Q1 when the positive data of Q4 would emerge and prove the bears wrong yet again, and so it is. In reaction to this good news, the economic bears, false gold bulls, and there have been some stand out laughable famous major league personalities of late, who have suggested buying gold as a hedge against inflation, recession, contagion, and all that other nonsense, are also being proven wrong.
This good news flow in the face of those who do not understand the contemporary world or economics, will see many who bought gold for all the wrong reasons of “fear”, starting to exit quickly before they lose as much money on their gold bet, as they have being short equities for the past six months. Yes, there will be some selling pressure about, and this will cause substantial consolidation, but it will not stop the rise of Gold.
It has always been argued here, and I was probably about the most accurate forecasters of Gold in 2011 with a target high of US$1,950 on this basis, that you should buy gold for the “good” reasons of strong economic growth and prosperity in the “new first world”, particularly in China and India. It is not difficult to understand why the gold price would rise when the two most populace nations in the world, with cultures that value gold even more highly than we in the west, are also the fastest growing economies in the world.
When you add to this higher industrial demand, and last but not least, increased central bank holdings by these same major economies. Then Gold is still going well beyond US$2,000, probably $2,600. Does it happen this year or next, probably next, but it will still deliver a strong return this year post some confused consolidation just now. Keep buying Gold on the dip, and for lots of good reasons.
Overall the global prosperity story is finally being seen for what it is, a reality.
Clifford Bennett
Market Directions will be available later today, apologies for any inconvenience.
Chief Economist
White Crane Group
Sydney, Australia.
+61 (0) 423 950 427
clifford@whitecranegroup.com.au
www.whitecranegroup.com.au
EurUsd
EurUsd - Immediate target would be the daily resistance line at 1.3336. A daily close above would bring into focus the fib retrace levels at 1.3436 - 50 % and 1.3627 - 61.8.
The ideal target of this move would be the AB = CD target at 1.3710 with the daily 200 sma above at 1.3748 currently.. Only a breach and close beneath the 23.6 fib at 1.3008 would have us looking to retest the 1.2625 lows and signal a much deeper leg lower.
The ideal target of this move would be the AB = CD target at 1.3710 with the daily 200 sma above at 1.3748 currently.. Only a breach and close beneath the 23.6 fib at 1.3008 would have us looking to retest the 1.2625 lows and signal a much deeper leg lower.
Yens - Daily Perspective
UsdJpy - Target is 80.03 which would complete at the 113.0 ( after 88.6 retrace to 76.02 low) also the AB = CD of the intervention spike.
AudJpy - Still maintain the upward target zone at 86.45 - 127.2 Fib ext. ( after the 78.6 retrace to 74.77 ) and 86.81 which is the AB = BC target.
EurJpy - Whilst not as clear as the UsdJpy and AudJpy the AB = CD leg looks to complete at 107.83 between the 70.7 and 78.6 fib retrace levels. The 200 sma comes in at 107.28.
GbpJpy - Has smashed through both the daily 200 sma and my in initial target zone at 124.22 which now focuses on the longer perspective. The next objective would be the AB = CD at 127.58 where the AB leg is the 117.27 - 127.30 October 2011 rally. which as far as the fibs go brings us inline with a full 100 % retracement and extension.
AudJpy - Still maintain the upward target zone at 86.45 - 127.2 Fib ext. ( after the 78.6 retrace to 74.77 ) and 86.81 which is the AB = BC target.
EurJpy - Whilst not as clear as the UsdJpy and AudJpy the AB = CD leg looks to complete at 107.83 between the 70.7 and 78.6 fib retrace levels. The 200 sma comes in at 107.28.
GbpJpy - Has smashed through both the daily 200 sma and my in initial target zone at 124.22 which now focuses on the longer perspective. The next objective would be the AB = CD at 127.58 where the AB leg is the 117.27 - 127.30 October 2011 rally. which as far as the fibs go brings us inline with a full 100 % retracement and extension.
Friday, 17 February 2012
Great Recovery as Expected for Euro and Australian Dollar
Clifford Bennett
Chief Economist
White Crane Group
Sydney, Australia.
+61 (0) 423 950 427
clifford@whitecranegroup.com.au
www.whitecranegroup.com.au
Got exactly the scenario we outlined for the Euro of “short term pain, followed by long term gain”. Well, we have yet to see the long term gain from here, but we may well be in day one of a substantial bull market.
Our Euro support at 1.2980 remained intact, and now we have this very strong first impulse wave to the upside. While several days consolidation in the range could be expected before the favoured break to the upside, it is important to note that the dominant risk is now at all times to the upside.
The fundamental argument for a significant Euro rally for the rest of the year could not be better. Europe has dealt effectively with the sovereign debt challenge, will have the most fiscally responsible economies in the world over the next 1-3 decades, and continues to experience rampant demand for its good s and services from Asia and Latin America, as well as the forecast pick up in economic activity in the US. All this and the market had been bearish? So the catch up to the far better reality than the consensus had forecast, is likely to see rapid price gains.
The US dollar will continue to trend lower. Remember the “strong dollar policy” is in fact, the “orderly decline of the US dollar policy”. Also the reason for the as forecast strong state of the US economy at this time is the rest of world demand for American goods and services, particularly out of Asia and Latin America. Asia and Latin America lead the global economic cycle and have done so for many years.
While some will begin to suggest that the US is now leading the world out of global recession risk, (you should never read anyone who says this ever again by the way, as it confirms they have no idea), the truth is the US economy will and can only remain strong if the dollar continues to move lower to a level that more accurately reflects its true worth in the world, on a par with the Euro and the Yuan once it freely floats. So despite economic well being returning to the US, the US dollar is expected to remain under significant pressure, as greater wealth is created elsewhere in the world and global portfolios continue to be re-weighted away from the US dollar.
The Australian dollar can only go from strength to strength in an environment of stable and high yield, not to mention the burgeoning resources boom, still in its early stages and with another 5- 15, perhaps 30, years to run.
Keep buying both the Euro and Australian dollar, against a US dollar still in long term decline.
Clifford Bennett
Our Euro support at 1.2980 remained intact, and now we have this very strong first impulse wave to the upside. While several days consolidation in the range could be expected before the favoured break to the upside, it is important to note that the dominant risk is now at all times to the upside.
The fundamental argument for a significant Euro rally for the rest of the year could not be better. Europe has dealt effectively with the sovereign debt challenge, will have the most fiscally responsible economies in the world over the next 1-3 decades, and continues to experience rampant demand for its good s and services from Asia and Latin America, as well as the forecast pick up in economic activity in the US. All this and the market had been bearish? So the catch up to the far better reality than the consensus had forecast, is likely to see rapid price gains.
The US dollar will continue to trend lower. Remember the “strong dollar policy” is in fact, the “orderly decline of the US dollar policy”. Also the reason for the as forecast strong state of the US economy at this time is the rest of world demand for American goods and services, particularly out of Asia and Latin America. Asia and Latin America lead the global economic cycle and have done so for many years.
While some will begin to suggest that the US is now leading the world out of global recession risk, (you should never read anyone who says this ever again by the way, as it confirms they have no idea), the truth is the US economy will and can only remain strong if the dollar continues to move lower to a level that more accurately reflects its true worth in the world, on a par with the Euro and the Yuan once it freely floats. So despite economic well being returning to the US, the US dollar is expected to remain under significant pressure, as greater wealth is created elsewhere in the world and global portfolios continue to be re-weighted away from the US dollar.
The Australian dollar can only go from strength to strength in an environment of stable and high yield, not to mention the burgeoning resources boom, still in its early stages and with another 5- 15, perhaps 30, years to run.
Keep buying both the Euro and Australian dollar, against a US dollar still in long term decline.
Clifford Bennett
Clifford Bennett
Chief Economist
White Crane Group
Sydney, Australia.
+61 (0) 423 950 427
clifford@whitecranegroup.com.au
www.whitecranegroup.com.au
Yen Crosses - Daily chart targets
GbpJpy has completed the required move to 124.32/50 target zone
AudJpy - Daily target is coming into view at 86.45/81
EurJpy - Initial area of 103.90/104.30 then higher toward 107.30/65
AudJpy - Daily target is coming into view at 86.45/81
EurJpy - Initial area of 103.90/104.30 then higher toward 107.30/65
The Bullish White Crane View of the World is taking hold!
The Bullish White Crane View of the World is taking hold!
The media in general, and especially those individual economists, researchers, and strategists, who scared investors away, and put fresh business investment on hold the world over, are irrefutably wrong, and have a great deal to answer for.
There was never any justification for the absurd forecasts of doom made by these people. They will fall back on “America is saving the day” now, but it is the reverse that is true. The world has rescued the US and Europe. Robust aggressive economic growth and prosperity throughout the “new first world” of Asia and Latin America continues to drive ever greater demand for European and US goods and services.
Furthermore Main Street USA is truly over all this negative hype and has gone back to work and business as well. Even in Europe corporate profits have been fantastic, and private balance sheets are strong. The real economy, the real people of the world, have been back at work for a long time, leaving the world’s ivory tower economic pessimists in their wake.
I am not making these points to have a go at these people, as much as they deserve it for the very real anguish they have caused. If you are an out of work stock broker, banker, Australian manufacturing worker, or a property developer that the banks now endlessly say no to, then you should be intensely aware it is because of the poor level of real world economic understanding among the ivory tower economists of the world, and that many individuals in the media, who have focussed on and pushed such a one sided and totally wrong story for the past two years.
They simply do not get that the US and Europe, now come second to Asia and Latin America, in the global economic cycle.
Until they figure this out, something I have identified and been arguing since early 2009 they will continue to hype up any negative event or piece of data, but it just won’t work anymore. Even the investment community is beginning to move on from these people. Which is going to create quite a rally.
As I started to say above,, there is actually a constructive reason for this critique of many of the main economists and commentators in the west: if you continue to listen to them, you will continue to miss out on this, our, your, Grand Bull Market opportunity!
What you will increasingly hear is that the US has turned the corner, and therefore there is hope for the rest of the world, but Europe is still a concern. Such analysis will temper your investment strategy, and that is the last thing you need you right now. As I have been saying for many months, including getting wrong for a while mid last year admittedly, is that you need to aggressively buy all the companies you ever want to own. The prices we have seen recently, will never be seen again in our lifetime. The pessimists are still wrong even as they move to neutral. The global economy is incredibly vibrant, and will be firing on all cylinders on all continents this year. Equity markets have to price out the recession they were obsessed with, that was never going to happen, and begin to correctly price in the strong economic reality.
We have already started the biggest bull market in history, and the risk is it starts to move faster than any of us can imagine!
My Dow Jones Index target for 2-3 years set in early 2009, remains 19,000.
Our AXSP200 target over the same period is 9,000.
The Australian dollar forecast remains risk to US$1.1700.
Don’t listen to the bears trying to cover their tracks with cautionary snow!
Keep buying, especially, Australian mining stocks, European fashion houses, and property!
Clifford Bennett
The media in general, and especially those individual economists, researchers, and strategists, who scared investors away, and put fresh business investment on hold the world over, are irrefutably wrong, and have a great deal to answer for.
There was never any justification for the absurd forecasts of doom made by these people. They will fall back on “America is saving the day” now, but it is the reverse that is true. The world has rescued the US and Europe. Robust aggressive economic growth and prosperity throughout the “new first world” of Asia and Latin America continues to drive ever greater demand for European and US goods and services.
Furthermore Main Street USA is truly over all this negative hype and has gone back to work and business as well. Even in Europe corporate profits have been fantastic, and private balance sheets are strong. The real economy, the real people of the world, have been back at work for a long time, leaving the world’s ivory tower economic pessimists in their wake.
I am not making these points to have a go at these people, as much as they deserve it for the very real anguish they have caused. If you are an out of work stock broker, banker, Australian manufacturing worker, or a property developer that the banks now endlessly say no to, then you should be intensely aware it is because of the poor level of real world economic understanding among the ivory tower economists of the world, and that many individuals in the media, who have focussed on and pushed such a one sided and totally wrong story for the past two years.
They simply do not get that the US and Europe, now come second to Asia and Latin America, in the global economic cycle.
Until they figure this out, something I have identified and been arguing since early 2009 they will continue to hype up any negative event or piece of data, but it just won’t work anymore. Even the investment community is beginning to move on from these people. Which is going to create quite a rally.
As I started to say above,, there is actually a constructive reason for this critique of many of the main economists and commentators in the west: if you continue to listen to them, you will continue to miss out on this, our, your, Grand Bull Market opportunity!
What you will increasingly hear is that the US has turned the corner, and therefore there is hope for the rest of the world, but Europe is still a concern. Such analysis will temper your investment strategy, and that is the last thing you need you right now. As I have been saying for many months, including getting wrong for a while mid last year admittedly, is that you need to aggressively buy all the companies you ever want to own. The prices we have seen recently, will never be seen again in our lifetime. The pessimists are still wrong even as they move to neutral. The global economy is incredibly vibrant, and will be firing on all cylinders on all continents this year. Equity markets have to price out the recession they were obsessed with, that was never going to happen, and begin to correctly price in the strong economic reality.
We have already started the biggest bull market in history, and the risk is it starts to move faster than any of us can imagine!
My Dow Jones Index target for 2-3 years set in early 2009, remains 19,000.
Our AXSP200 target over the same period is 9,000.
The Australian dollar forecast remains risk to US$1.1700.
Don’t listen to the bears trying to cover their tracks with cautionary snow!
Keep buying, especially, Australian mining stocks, European fashion houses, and property!
Clifford Bennett
Chief Economist
White Crane Group
Sydney, Australia.
+61 (0) 423 950 427
clifford@whitecranegroup.com.au
www.whitecranegroup.com.au
Thursday, 16 February 2012
Aud Jpy - firing short - watch
Cross and 60 min close under the 89 ema Hrly - 83.66 , would have a short signal firing. Initial stop -34 Pips. Move to B/E +37 Pips. Care on a bounce at the 61.8 fib @ 83.46 zone although I would only reverse on a full reversal signal and failure to break the 61.8 fib with an hourly close back above the 89 ema 60 min chart.
There is also a SHS present of sorts - Tgt would be almost a complete 100% Fib retrace of the 82.75 - 84.60 rally.
There is also a SHS present of sorts - Tgt would be almost a complete 100% Fib retrace of the 82.75 - 84.60 rally.
Trades - Hourly and 30 min TFs
Short Kiwi - 1/2 position @ 0.82843
Short EurJpy - 1/2 position 102.16
Aud and Kiwi crosses looking vulnerable in this move. Although I am dancing near the door as they are all relatively late entries after the drubbing overnight.
Watch AudCad for short, GbpAud for long entries
Short EurJpy - 1/2 position 102.16
Aud and Kiwi crosses looking vulnerable in this move. Although I am dancing near the door as they are all relatively late entries after the drubbing overnight.
Watch AudCad for short, GbpAud for long entries
Yen Crosses - Still more room higher ?
Daily charts still have some ways to go northward if they are to complete this current leg higher. Last nights action has taken the wind out of their sails and the Spinning Tops on the daily charts of UsdJpy, AudJpy and GbpJpy certainly give credibility to the retraces currently unfolding on the 4 Hourly charts.
The notion of these Yen crosses still moving higher on the Daily TF also fits with the view that the E-mini S+P futures also need to see this leg complete toward the 1368.25/1376.50 zone. Current pull-back may extend to as low as 1325 with minor support at the 89 ema @ 1332.50.
E-Mini S+P
AudJpy - Daily
EurJpy - Daily
GbpJpy - Daily
The notion of these Yen crosses still moving higher on the Daily TF also fits with the view that the E-mini S+P futures also need to see this leg complete toward the 1368.25/1376.50 zone. Current pull-back may extend to as low as 1325 with minor support at the 89 ema @ 1332.50.
E-Mini S+P
AudJpy - Daily
EurJpy - Daily
GbpJpy - Daily
Wednesday, 15 February 2012
ES Daily
Triple top at 1352 completely smashed and hence the 4 Hourly SHS idea negated , has the daily chart back in front view .. The measured move of the AB=CD leg targets 1368.25 with the 161.8 Fib extension overhead at 1376.50 after the BC correction of a little over 61.8 % to 1147.25 in Nov 2011.
Aussie + Kiwi + ES
Couple of charts to keep an eye on -
Whilst the 1352.0 triple top remains unbroken, the Head and Shoulders pattern remains valid with the neckline at 1335.50 and the target zone of 1316.25 - 1318.25. Given the close correlation between the ES, Aussie and Kiwi it is worthwhile watching all three for these patterns to either playout together or completely take off to the topside.
AudUsd 4 hourly chart - Two possible necklines to choose from, same result - 1.0428
NzdUsd 4 Hourly chart - much cleaner setup. 0.8096 Target.
Whilst the 1352.0 triple top remains unbroken, the Head and Shoulders pattern remains valid with the neckline at 1335.50 and the target zone of 1316.25 - 1318.25. Given the close correlation between the ES, Aussie and Kiwi it is worthwhile watching all three for these patterns to either playout together or completely take off to the topside.
AudUsd 4 hourly chart - Two possible necklines to choose from, same result - 1.0428
NzdUsd 4 Hourly chart - much cleaner setup. 0.8096 Target.
..... Algos kill a good selloff yet again...
Trade the tape, market doesn't care what you think, feel or hope...
Mini S+P - ESH2
240 min chart has SHS lining up. Neckline comes in at 1335.25 with target at 1316.25 which also comes in near the 61.8 fib retrace - 1317.25 and the AB=CD at 1318.25.
Tuesday, 14 February 2012
This looks like a fail...
Still long UsdCad and Short the ES... Have not had a chance to sit at the screen for any reasonable length of time to be more active.
Sorry, but although I know that the longer term will be fine - as can kicking has proven its worth and ratings agencies are about as timely as international mail in Chile... I cant get rid of this feeling that we are about to receive a nasty bear bite.. It wont be sweet but should be relatively quick.
I am waiting for the World Vision organisation to unfold an - Adopt A Greek Family - program any moment soon..
Short term traders - You should already be SHORT Risk..
Long term traders- ( The Ones who use longer stops or block trade - Buy weakness..)
As for CL.... trade what you see... Still think it goes higher then has one almighty 2008 style dump
Sorry, but although I know that the longer term will be fine - as can kicking has proven its worth and ratings agencies are about as timely as international mail in Chile... I cant get rid of this feeling that we are about to receive a nasty bear bite.. It wont be sweet but should be relatively quick.
I am waiting for the World Vision organisation to unfold an - Adopt A Greek Family - program any moment soon..
Short term traders - You should already be SHORT Risk..
Long term traders- ( The Ones who use longer stops or block trade - Buy weakness..)
As for CL.... trade what you see... Still think it goes higher then has one almighty 2008 style dump
Saturday, 11 February 2012
Vix
Seeing the VIX running higher on good volume. Which doesn't bode well for those looking for a late day rally.
Friday, 10 February 2012
Cable bouncing off support
Cable bouncing off MA - Moving Average support - 60 min 222 ema, and 240 min 68 ema.
Aud coming under pressure
Position adjustment time in Asia by the looks of it with Aud leading the pack
A tad busy on the FxMax project
There have been a few ops come and go, but I have been busy helping a good friend get a new project up and running which has not left much time to dedicate to the screens.
On the macro front things seem to be looking a tad brighter as far as the data goes and everywhere else for that matter unless you happen to be a Greek civil servant or poli... Just goes to show that if you kick the can down the road long enough and throw enough cash at the problem it will go away.... well.. the market might forget about it for a spell.
By the look of it the Nasdaq is leading the pack higher as per normal and is well on its way to test the 161.8 % Fib @ 2576.96.
March ES mini contract - ESH2 currently finding some resistance at the Daily 141.4 % Fib. Ideally, the Daily chart suggests that the upside target for this leg would be in the vicinity of 1368.25 ( AB=CD) to 1376.50 ( 161.8 % Fib extension after a CD 61.8 retrace) zone.
March WTI Crude - CLH2, Daily chart has turned bullish with the target set in the 106.70 ( AB=CD) to 107.10 ( 141.4% Fib extension from the 70.7 pullback at 95.43) zone.
4 Hrly charts are suggesting we require a brief pullback or some consolidation at lower levels before the next assault higher towards target.
Currently we are in the 4 Hrly target zone of the up move at channel resistance and the 78.6% Fib. Whilst there looks to be further upward momentum I will be looking for signs on the lower time frames that this move is near an end and a retrace is underway. Confirmation would come on a 4 Hrly break and close under the 222 ema.
Spot Gold - XAUUSD, Is caught in a consolidation zone between 1698 and 1760. On a daily chart current price action does resemble that of the highs put in in Nov and Dec of 2011, although ideal target would be an attempt at previous highs close to 1800 . Daily close under the 11 ema would have me looking for a retracement back to the 50 and 200 day smas.
On the macro front things seem to be looking a tad brighter as far as the data goes and everywhere else for that matter unless you happen to be a Greek civil servant or poli... Just goes to show that if you kick the can down the road long enough and throw enough cash at the problem it will go away.... well.. the market might forget about it for a spell.
By the look of it the Nasdaq is leading the pack higher as per normal and is well on its way to test the 161.8 % Fib @ 2576.96.
March ES mini contract - ESH2 currently finding some resistance at the Daily 141.4 % Fib. Ideally, the Daily chart suggests that the upside target for this leg would be in the vicinity of 1368.25 ( AB=CD) to 1376.50 ( 161.8 % Fib extension after a CD 61.8 retrace) zone.
March WTI Crude - CLH2, Daily chart has turned bullish with the target set in the 106.70 ( AB=CD) to 107.10 ( 141.4% Fib extension from the 70.7 pullback at 95.43) zone.
4 Hrly charts are suggesting we require a brief pullback or some consolidation at lower levels before the next assault higher towards target.
Currently we are in the 4 Hrly target zone of the up move at channel resistance and the 78.6% Fib. Whilst there looks to be further upward momentum I will be looking for signs on the lower time frames that this move is near an end and a retrace is underway. Confirmation would come on a 4 Hrly break and close under the 222 ema.
Spot Gold - XAUUSD, Is caught in a consolidation zone between 1698 and 1760. On a daily chart current price action does resemble that of the highs put in in Nov and Dec of 2011, although ideal target would be an attempt at previous highs close to 1800 . Daily close under the 11 ema would have me looking for a retracement back to the 50 and 200 day smas.
Wednesday, 8 February 2012
EurAud , EurCad
EurAud
Short setup unfolding.
Short 60 min close under 1.2247 - Entry @ 1.2247. Stop 41 Pips. Initial TP +62 Pips @ 1.2185 very near the 61.8 fib, so may adjust to the Fib line itself + spread.
EurCad
Whilst no signals have been generated apart from stochastics crossing over bearish from an over bought position, previous post NFP highs were rejected with a doji top. Worthwhile keeping an eye on this pair for a spike higher creating a bearish RSI divergence.
Short setup unfolding.
Short 60 min close under 1.2247 - Entry @ 1.2247. Stop 41 Pips. Initial TP +62 Pips @ 1.2185 very near the 61.8 fib, so may adjust to the Fib line itself + spread.
EurCad
Whilst no signals have been generated apart from stochastics crossing over bearish from an over bought position, previous post NFP highs were rejected with a doji top. Worthwhile keeping an eye on this pair for a spike higher creating a bearish RSI divergence.
Into London Open
After a relatively quiet Asian session pre London open sees a weaker Yen and USD across the board. Stock Indexes are all marginally firmer with the metals treading water ahead of the LME open.
The market looks a little over confident here so expect a spike and drop in the USD pairs to kick proceedings off.
The market looks a little over confident here so expect a spike and drop in the USD pairs to kick proceedings off.
GbpJpy
GbpJpy 240 min chart Bullish Tgt @ 124.30/50 zone. After the 50% fib retracement ideal tgt is a 200% extension toward 124.50.
FxMax
8 February, 2012
A Significant Break to the Upside by the Euro!
The very bullish outlook for the Euro, which I have maintained though out the sovereign debt crisis, continues to look good. This latest break to the upside is extremely significant. The ultimate barometer of the state of the European Union has been resilient throughout the crisis of the last two years. Forecasts of parity to the US dollar proving to be the absolute nonsense that I said they were at the time.
The Euro-zone will achieve positive GDP growth this year.
The worst of the sovereign debt crisis has been patently behind us for many months now.
The Euro has been consolidating, just waiting for the weight of overwhelming and ridiculous bearish sentiment to begin to lift.
I am not sure if the consensus has shifted that much, but it looks very much to me like, and similar to the equity market of a few months ago, that the bears are absolutely and completely exhausted. The key point however is that they are still caught short the Euro, so what to do? I suggest they should panic and buy back their shorts as quickly as they can. This could be a particularly powerful Euro rally!
This range break to the upside was pre-empted here in view, and also in our FxMax Directions signals. If you are similarly well positioned, then you are likely to enjoy a lasting and quite substantial up move from these current levels, all the way to US$1.3600 and US$1.3900 in the near term. The medium term outlook remains US$1.4900 to US$1.5200. We may have already seen the lows for the year.
The only risk is some last minute collapse of the arrangements regarding Greece. This is considered highly unlikely, but it is not impossible. Nevertheless the Euro would quickly recover from such a shock, to continue to trend higher. For the moment though, just in case, certainly keep stop loss orders in place below the current market.
Overall our very own bullish view is the one that is being encouraged by both geo-political developments, and the actual price action.
The very bullish outlook for the Euro, which I have maintained though out the sovereign debt crisis, continues to look good. This latest break to the upside is extremely significant. The ultimate barometer of the state of the European Union has been resilient throughout the crisis of the last two years. Forecasts of parity to the US dollar proving to be the absolute nonsense that I said they were at the time.
The Euro-zone will achieve positive GDP growth this year.
The worst of the sovereign debt crisis has been patently behind us for many months now.
The Euro has been consolidating, just waiting for the weight of overwhelming and ridiculous bearish sentiment to begin to lift.
I am not sure if the consensus has shifted that much, but it looks very much to me like, and similar to the equity market of a few months ago, that the bears are absolutely and completely exhausted. The key point however is that they are still caught short the Euro, so what to do? I suggest they should panic and buy back their shorts as quickly as they can. This could be a particularly powerful Euro rally!
This range break to the upside was pre-empted here in view, and also in our FxMax Directions signals. If you are similarly well positioned, then you are likely to enjoy a lasting and quite substantial up move from these current levels, all the way to US$1.3600 and US$1.3900 in the near term. The medium term outlook remains US$1.4900 to US$1.5200. We may have already seen the lows for the year.
The only risk is some last minute collapse of the arrangements regarding Greece. This is considered highly unlikely, but it is not impossible. Nevertheless the Euro would quickly recover from such a shock, to continue to trend higher. For the moment though, just in case, certainly keep stop loss orders in place below the current market.
Overall our very own bullish view is the one that is being encouraged by both geo-political developments, and the actual price action.
Clifford Bennett
Chief Economist
White Crane Group
Sydney, Australia.
+61 (0) 423 950 427
clifford@whitecranegroup.com.au
www.whitecranegroup.com.au
Chief Economist
White Crane Group
Sydney, Australia.
+61 (0) 423 950 427
clifford@whitecranegroup.com.au
www.whitecranegroup.com.au
Tuesday, 7 February 2012
Cable - GbpUsd
Cable is looking a touch heavy here. Will look to sell on a 30 min close under the daily pivot - 1/2 unit. Add to full unit on 60 min close under 1.5785. Initial Stop 38 pips.
Price closed under pivot but with stochastic in oversold area was better to stay away or trade the bounce.
Price closed under pivot but with stochastic in oversold area was better to stay away or trade the bounce.
AudJpy
After a 50% Fib pullback ideal Tgt should be 161.8 - 200.0 % Fib extension. 83.07/83.35 Measured move Tgt is at 83.17. Out by 2 pips... Overnight high 83.19
RBA up next in quiet trade
Given better US data, an inevitable solution to Europe and continuing demand out of Asia...ohh and the fact that the banks wont pass on the rate cut, expect no change.. B I N G O !!!
FxMax
7 February, 2012
Still Bullish Euro and Australian Dollar
The Euro is marking time ahead of Greece progress and conclusion of talks. It is looking good at this albeit latish stage, and we should expect the Euro to burst higher at any moment. Sterling is likely to follow suit, as what is good for the Euro, is also of course good for Sterling. Please see The White Crane Report for further discussion of the situation in Greece. Whether Greece gets the next funding leg, almost a certainty, or not, the Euro will rally in the long run.
The US dollar is hesitating and attempting to make some sort of bottom after the recent decline, but the market needs to get above the USD Index 78.60 level to encourage this scenario, and I don’t think it can manage it.
As bullish the US economy as I am, there are sill a lot of long term structural issues for the US to work through, and prior global dominance factors yet to be priced out of the once mighty currency. As I again highlighted in a speech last night at Investorium in Sydney, the US “strong dollar policy” has for several years actually been, and indeed remains, “the orderly decline of the US dollar policy”.
This year’s forecast for the US dollar Index remains in the order of 70.00. If the market can recover 78.60, then we will reverse our view in the short term, but strongly favour further significant downside.
The Australian dollar is in the grip of Reserve Bank headlights today. The market clearly wants to rally, buyers abound! Yet we need to get this rate cut, if there is one, out of the way first. There is still a much stronger possibility for the Reserve Bank to remain on hold than the market anticipates, with little time having passed since the previous rate reductions, and strong demand for Australia’s resources continuing. The RBA could also throw into the mix the prospect for a positive resolution regarding Greece, though it may well focus on the current downside risks to the world’s largest economy, the Euro-zone.
All in all a rate cut should occur, though I am sticking to my no change forecast, and if it does, the Australian dollar may experience a brief fall. I would tend to be a buyer of the Australian dollar in any case however, 15 minutes after the announcement. The long term up-trend and fundamental argument is just that strong.
The Euro is marking time ahead of Greece progress and conclusion of talks. It is looking good at this albeit latish stage, and we should expect the Euro to burst higher at any moment. Sterling is likely to follow suit, as what is good for the Euro, is also of course good for Sterling. Please see The White Crane Report for further discussion of the situation in Greece. Whether Greece gets the next funding leg, almost a certainty, or not, the Euro will rally in the long run.
The US dollar is hesitating and attempting to make some sort of bottom after the recent decline, but the market needs to get above the USD Index 78.60 level to encourage this scenario, and I don’t think it can manage it.
As bullish the US economy as I am, there are sill a lot of long term structural issues for the US to work through, and prior global dominance factors yet to be priced out of the once mighty currency. As I again highlighted in a speech last night at Investorium in Sydney, the US “strong dollar policy” has for several years actually been, and indeed remains, “the orderly decline of the US dollar policy”.
This year’s forecast for the US dollar Index remains in the order of 70.00. If the market can recover 78.60, then we will reverse our view in the short term, but strongly favour further significant downside.
The Australian dollar is in the grip of Reserve Bank headlights today. The market clearly wants to rally, buyers abound! Yet we need to get this rate cut, if there is one, out of the way first. There is still a much stronger possibility for the Reserve Bank to remain on hold than the market anticipates, with little time having passed since the previous rate reductions, and strong demand for Australia’s resources continuing. The RBA could also throw into the mix the prospect for a positive resolution regarding Greece, though it may well focus on the current downside risks to the world’s largest economy, the Euro-zone.
All in all a rate cut should occur, though I am sticking to my no change forecast, and if it does, the Australian dollar may experience a brief fall. I would tend to be a buyer of the Australian dollar in any case however, 15 minutes after the announcement. The long term up-trend and fundamental argument is just that strong.
Clifford Bennett
Chief Economist
White Crane Group
Sydney, Australia.
+61 (0) 423 950 427
clifford@whitecranegroup.com.au
www.whitecranegroup.com.au
Chief Economist
White Crane Group
Sydney, Australia.
+61 (0) 423 950 427
clifford@whitecranegroup.com.au
www.whitecranegroup.com.au
Monday, 6 February 2012
FxMax
|
06 February, 2012
Euro Consolidation Overall Bullish
Australian Dollar Continues to Fly
Concerns about Greece remain over inflated, but also a lot of bears finally gave up and started to get long the Euro recently. The Euro may therefore be a little top heavy in the short term, but the overall up-trend is highly likely to resume following this short term consolidation phase at current levels. This is not to say that Greece is not at yet another tipping point, but that while there will be some last minute posturing by various leaders within Greece so as to maintain voter support, the final discussions though tense, will nonetheless be successful. I have to make the point though, as conditions in Europe are incredibly icy, and this freeze will do nothing for Q1 GDP, as the union as a whole will be significantly impacted, let alone discussions with Greece, that a default scenario is extremely bullish the Euro should it occur. The Euro will rally strongly despite improving employment in the US, as all the bad news, and it is argued here a dis-integration scenario that was never going to happen, is already priced in the Euro. Therefore the upside potential for the Euro upon agreement regarding Greek funding requirements is extreme. Furthermore, should Greece default, it will eave the union immediately, and this would allow the Euro to rally strongly as well. It is very cold in Europe and this serious weather situation will take the wind, what there was, out of the sails of economic growth this quarter. Yet it will still be the force of the unwinding of an overly bearish sentiment, that is likely to dominate in coming weeks and months. Therefore we still look for further strong gains in the Euro over the medium and long term. The Australian dollar is resolute in its rally, and why wouldn’t it be. The whole world is set to prosper in 2012, with only Europe to be moderate. The demand for commodities globally, and especially in Asia, is likely to increase significantly, and at a greater rate than new reserves are discovered. The pricing in of this continued global prosperity, as well as the decline of commodity reserves, has only just begun. It is not difficult to figure out that the Australian dollar will continue to rally. Though in the short term one must be a little cautious, as we have reached a point where even the previous bears are now joining the bullish camp. This is always a sign that an unexpected downward correction may be afoot. The Reserve Bank will I believe leave rates on hold, for the reasons I have provided in recent days, rebounding resources demand, and only a short passage of time since the last rate cuts. There is no doubt the RBA should cut rates, but whether they do is another matter. Nevertheless should the RBA cut rates I would expect this to only generate a short term pullback for the Australian dollar. Such pullbacks though brief can occasionally be significant in price. With the bears only recently having moved to long positions there may be some short term vulnerability in this regard. Should the Australian dollar experience any pullback whatsoever, it would be something that exporters and savvy traders alike should take full advantage of. The end of year target I set at parity at the start of the year of 1.1300, was upgraded to 1.1700 when the currency quickly achieved 1.0500, and this revised forecast remains probable. Clifford Bennett Chief Economist White Crane Group Sydney, Australia. +61 (0) 423 950 427 clifford@whitecranegroup.com.au www.whitecranegroup.com.au |
Friday, 3 February 2012
Complete system failure
After a complete system failure generated by some sort of attack which killed my op system, browser and everything else Im back up and running.. Ops were missed but the market trades on... NFP tonight so there shall be many ops to grab on to.
What is standing out is the SHS patterns visible on the 4 Hr Usd/Chf and inverse pattern Eur/Usd.. Once all charts are up n running I will give you a quick heads-up on what I am seeing.
What is standing out is the SHS patterns visible on the 4 Hr Usd/Chf and inverse pattern Eur/Usd.. Once all charts are up n running I will give you a quick heads-up on what I am seeing.
Wednesday, 1 February 2012
UsdChf - worth watching
UsdChf 60 minute chart is worth keeping an eye on. Although we still have some further upside momentum present a break and close below the 100 ema with bearish divergence would have me short with a target near 0.9140. Stop is 37.5 pips. Moving to B/E at +37.5 pips.
White Crane Group Report
Strong Consolidation Phase
While consumer confidence in the US has pulled back a little,it
has to be remembered that this is after some very strong gains of late,
and while not another increase, the consumer confidence level is still
consistent with firm to strong economic growth. I am also encouraged in
that consumer confidence is daily bombarded with negative headlines, and
therefore actual activity, as opposed to confidence, may well be higher
by a more significant margin than is historically the case.
US housing prices remain a non-concern, as it is clear that they have stabilised many many months ago post the sub-prime crisis. The worst is behind us on that front, and that is all we need to know. The view here since late 2008 early 2009, has always been that the US economy would recover, as it did in 2009 and now this next phase late 2011 through 2012, in parallel with high un-employment and a depressed housing market. Bith these aspects of the economy are undergoing long tern structural adjustment.
The on-going trend in economic data remains positive in the US, and while unemployment picked up a little in Italy, it hit a two decade low in Germany, so even in Europe there are signs of hope. Overall unemployment in Europe is at 10.4%, a high but managable level. This is not too different a situation to that of the US only a few months ago, and like the US, there are more reasons to be optimistic than the consensus views suggest.
Our overall view on the situation in Greece,that there would be a lot of tough talk, before arriving at an amicable solution and agreement, remain on track. Any moment now we should hear surprisingly good new on that front.
Looking further ahead the US elections are likely to have a very limited impacton markets, perhaps less than ever before. It is likely the incumbant will remain in place, and after the huge and dramatic events of recent years, from GFC to European sovereign debt, it will be difficult for a mere Presidential election in the world’s second largest economy to ruffle investors feathers too much. So suggest the overall up-trend, will simply continue to power on.
As for the short term correction, whichsome media outlets have highlighted as “longest running correction since August” well it is only 4-5 days and with only a minor percentage decline. It has to be viewed as an extremely strong indication at this point, that the market cannot pullback too much at all. In the context of a lot of potential buyers currently sitting on the sidelines until they see for certain that Greece will get the next funding helpout, it suggests that we could see fresh highs for the year within a week.
Keep buying the dip, as they seem to be getting more shallow.
Clifford Bennett
US housing prices remain a non-concern, as it is clear that they have stabilised many many months ago post the sub-prime crisis. The worst is behind us on that front, and that is all we need to know. The view here since late 2008 early 2009, has always been that the US economy would recover, as it did in 2009 and now this next phase late 2011 through 2012, in parallel with high un-employment and a depressed housing market. Bith these aspects of the economy are undergoing long tern structural adjustment.
The on-going trend in economic data remains positive in the US, and while unemployment picked up a little in Italy, it hit a two decade low in Germany, so even in Europe there are signs of hope. Overall unemployment in Europe is at 10.4%, a high but managable level. This is not too different a situation to that of the US only a few months ago, and like the US, there are more reasons to be optimistic than the consensus views suggest.
Our overall view on the situation in Greece,that there would be a lot of tough talk, before arriving at an amicable solution and agreement, remain on track. Any moment now we should hear surprisingly good new on that front.
Looking further ahead the US elections are likely to have a very limited impacton markets, perhaps less than ever before. It is likely the incumbant will remain in place, and after the huge and dramatic events of recent years, from GFC to European sovereign debt, it will be difficult for a mere Presidential election in the world’s second largest economy to ruffle investors feathers too much. So suggest the overall up-trend, will simply continue to power on.
As for the short term correction, whichsome media outlets have highlighted as “longest running correction since August” well it is only 4-5 days and with only a minor percentage decline. It has to be viewed as an extremely strong indication at this point, that the market cannot pullback too much at all. In the context of a lot of potential buyers currently sitting on the sidelines until they see for certain that Greece will get the next funding helpout, it suggests that we could see fresh highs for the year within a week.
Keep buying the dip, as they seem to be getting more shallow.
Clifford Bennett
Kiwi and Aussie coming lower
Both 30 minute charts have fired short but with a little under 1 hour before the Chinese PMI Exp: 49.6 i would sit this one out.
GbpAud 60 - Head and shoulder pattern ?
Worthwhile keeping an eye on a possible Head and Shoulder pattern (SHS) forming GbpAud 60 minute chart. Neckline currently @ 1.4762.
Yen Cross Update
Right ideas, but no pot of gold....
Both EurJpy and AudJpy failed to trigger the entries whilst the quick pullback in GbpJpy managed to ping the stop which was at B/E after 37.5 pips.
AudJpy
EurJpy
GbpJpy
Both EurJpy and AudJpy failed to trigger the entries whilst the quick pullback in GbpJpy managed to ping the stop which was at B/E after 37.5 pips.
AudJpy
EurJpy
GbpJpy
Yen Crosses
Yen crosses are rolling over short. Will watch the hourly closes and the US stock futures for entries. Both Dow and the S+P are looking a tad toppy, although the Nasdaq still feels buoyant so be patient.
ESH2 - key lvl 1310.25
YMH2 - key lvl 12613
60 min close basis
EurJpy - short on close under 100.62
AudJpy - short on close under 81.28
GbpJpy - short on close under 120.45
As the positions are heavily Yen weighted I would use only 1/2 positions.
ESH2 - key lvl 1310.25
YMH2 - key lvl 12613
60 min close basis
EurJpy - short on close under 100.62
AudJpy - short on close under 81.28
GbpJpy - short on close under 120.45
As the positions are heavily Yen weighted I would use only 1/2 positions.
Aud/Usd
25% was taken off at the +70 with another 50% at market. 30 minute charts are beginning to turn over.
Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Been out all day..
Hindsight is a wonderous thing .. especially for new traders.. Shudda, Coulda, Woudda..... DIDNT!
Aud 1.0588 Long stop is now to entry and a risk-free trade. As the trade was taken on the 60 minute time frame we will stick to the 1.618% of the 500 ATR which is 35 pips. The first TP therefore should be 2 * that. 2nd TP will be 3 * the ATR with a balance running should a trend commence..
Yen crosses did indeed rebound but still no confo on either one.. That being said and given the daily charts we should see them topping here for a retrace into London open.
Aud 1.0588 Long stop is now to entry and a risk-free trade. As the trade was taken on the 60 minute time frame we will stick to the 1.618% of the 500 ATR which is 35 pips. The first TP therefore should be 2 * that. 2nd TP will be 3 * the ATR with a balance running should a trend commence..
Yen crosses did indeed rebound but still no confo on either one.. That being said and given the daily charts we should see them topping here for a retrace into London open.
Yen Crosses
Although there are no signals confirmed as yet, I will be watching for a further rebound in the Yen crosses and looking to establish intra-day long positions should the signals fire.
Rebound in stocks lifting risk sentiment into NYK afternoon
Seeing a nice rebound in these US stock futures continue, led of course by the Nasdaq.
Open Positions:
Closing short Aud @ market, Kiwi at 0.81968 or B/E and AudCad at 1.0624.
New Positions:
Open Positions:
Closing short Aud @ market, Kiwi at 0.81968 or B/E and AudCad at 1.0624.
New Positions:
- Sell EurAud @ 1.2394. Stop 41 pips, Stop to B/E 41 pips. TP 1 - 25% - +70 Pips, TP 2 - 25% - +140 Pips. Order Cancelled
- Sell 1/2 position GbpAud @ 1.4827. Stop 50 pips, Stop to B/E 50 pips. TP 1 - 25% - +80 Pips, TP 2 - 50% - +160 Pips. Order Cancelled
- Buy 1/2 position AudUsd @ 1.0588 on 60 min close above 1.0588. Long @ 1.0588 . Same parameters as yesterdays trade.
booking partial profit
Booked 25% AudUsd +75 pips- stop to entry
Booked 25% NzdUsd +50 Pips - stop to entry
Booked 25% NzdUsd +50 Pips - stop to entry
Monday, 30 January 2012
Method - Ideas
I have spoken a few times on the Blog about my methods, but as traders we are always looking at ways to be more efficient. I have tried and tested more methods than I really care to admit but they only happen when we are in these choppy markets.. At the end of the day I am looking for a trend... A trend that I can ride for a few if not 10 big figs.
Thats where you earn your money.
As I have found, it is the trade you dont take that is the winner.. so we come back to being patient and consistent. A good trader sticks to a method. Sticks to good risk management.. Today was an example.
I am short Aud/Usd, Nzd/Usd , Aud/Cad and was short ENQ... as the mini Nasdaq ( ENQ) had not lived upto expectations I preferred to cut that and lower my directional risk as all 4 positions were pretty much all Risk-Off positions.
Thats where you earn your money.
As I have found, it is the trade you dont take that is the winner.. so we come back to being patient and consistent. A good trader sticks to a method. Sticks to good risk management.. Today was an example.
I am short Aud/Usd, Nzd/Usd , Aud/Cad and was short ENQ... as the mini Nasdaq ( ENQ) had not lived upto expectations I preferred to cut that and lower my directional risk as all 4 positions were pretty much all Risk-Off positions.
James Mound's Weekly Review
For the Week Ending January 29th, 2012
Energies
Crude oil continues to show declining volatility while channeling. Look for March to break and close below 97.40 to indicate a failure. Natural gas may have long term bottomed, but I would wait for the highs of this move to get taken out before being completely sold on the turn.
Financials
Stocks are choppy near the highs, holding on despite a less than enthusiastic FOMC meeting. The employment report remains a focal point as the market should see selling pressure ahead of Friday’s announcement. Bonds are worth a look for some call buying after premiums have dropped off due to a near comatose 3 month trading channel. The euro looks incredibly strong on a daily chart but I would discourage you from getting suckered in here – this market is a strong sell. The U.S. dollar is on monthly trendline support and is a buy here, likely to pressure European currencies along with the Australian dollar. The Japanese yen is ready for takeoff after a decent price surge and momentum on its side. Look for a breakout in February as the yen remains a buy and I continue to stand by my forecast that:
The Japanese Yen futures will hit 140 before it hits 80 or I will quit writing the Weekend Commodities Review...forever.
Repeat from last week: This is setup time in grains as the market positions ahead of plantings, over-evaluating carryover inventories and droughts in South America while ignoring the exposure the market has to a U.S. dollar rally and collapse of several European demand-heavy economies. Short beans and corn with puts, and spread long wheat against short corn.
Meats
Cattle looks bullish on a daily, weekly and monthly chart – but I’m all in short here with straight puts. Hogs are choppy and going nowhere fast.
Metals
Short gold and silver this week with bear put spreads. Copper is right up on my anticipated resistance area at 3.95 and is a short here.
Softs
Coffee is right up on key support and I suspect that any lower close would signal a clear break in the market. I suspect coffee could plunge 20% in a matter of 2-3 months. Cocoa has been rising steadily and may have established a short term bottom, but I see upside as limited and look to accumulate puts near current levels. Cotton is also a short, along with sugar. The softs sector is very exposed to a rally in the U.S. dollar and concerns over weakness in the global economy. OJ is still avoidable but perhaps the thing that makes this market go the way of pork bellies is an out of control rally.
Energies
Crude oil continues to show declining volatility while channeling. Look for March to break and close below 97.40 to indicate a failure. Natural gas may have long term bottomed, but I would wait for the highs of this move to get taken out before being completely sold on the turn.
Financials
Stocks are choppy near the highs, holding on despite a less than enthusiastic FOMC meeting. The employment report remains a focal point as the market should see selling pressure ahead of Friday’s announcement. Bonds are worth a look for some call buying after premiums have dropped off due to a near comatose 3 month trading channel. The euro looks incredibly strong on a daily chart but I would discourage you from getting suckered in here – this market is a strong sell. The U.S. dollar is on monthly trendline support and is a buy here, likely to pressure European currencies along with the Australian dollar. The Japanese yen is ready for takeoff after a decent price surge and momentum on its side. Look for a breakout in February as the yen remains a buy and I continue to stand by my forecast that:
The Japanese Yen futures will hit 140 before it hits 80 or I will quit writing the Weekend Commodities Review...forever.
Grains
Repeat from last week: This is setup time in grains as the market positions ahead of plantings, over-evaluating carryover inventories and droughts in South America while ignoring the exposure the market has to a U.S. dollar rally and collapse of several European demand-heavy economies. Short beans and corn with puts, and spread long wheat against short corn.
Meats
Cattle looks bullish on a daily, weekly and monthly chart – but I’m all in short here with straight puts. Hogs are choppy and going nowhere fast.
Metals
Short gold and silver this week with bear put spreads. Copper is right up on my anticipated resistance area at 3.95 and is a short here.
Softs
Coffee is right up on key support and I suspect that any lower close would signal a clear break in the market. I suspect coffee could plunge 20% in a matter of 2-3 months. Cocoa has been rising steadily and may have established a short term bottom, but I see upside as limited and look to accumulate puts near current levels. Cotton is also a short, along with sugar. The softs sector is very exposed to a rally in the U.S. dollar and concerns over weakness in the global economy. OJ is still avoidable but perhaps the thing that makes this market go the way of pork bellies is an out of control rally.
Kiwi and Aussie Short positions
Should Kiwi - NzdUsd close the 30 minute bar above 0.8192, close the 0.82119 short.
Likewise, with the Aussie - AudUsd short from 1.06128 - Should we close the hour above 1.0571 a bounce should follow.
Close the positions at market or place your bid to close the sold positions at Kiwi - 0.8192 + spread and Aussie - 1.0571 + spread .
Likewise, with the Aussie - AudUsd short from 1.06128 - Should we close the hour above 1.0571 a bounce should follow.
Close the positions at market or place your bid to close the sold positions at Kiwi - 0.8192 + spread and Aussie - 1.0571 + spread .
MT4 Users - Position monitoring EA
One of the most useful EA's I have found is Update Stops. Although you will need to configure it properly to each pair according to volatility and whether or not the pair is 5, 4 or 2 digits.. It is a useful tool in managing your position when you just cannot be at the screen 24/7.
You can email or Skype me at scmtrading and I will send you the file.
You can email or Skype me at scmtrading and I will send you the file.
Mini Nasdaq - ENQH2
Calling No Joy - Sideways into London is never a good thing ... Close the trade at B/E - breakeven.
EurCad
Although no signal as yet its worth watching for a topping formation. Watch the 30 minute chart for some MACD or Rsi bearish divergence to short on a quick trade. Daily chart is bullish as is the 4 Hrly chart. Although the 4 Hrly 222 ema has capped the rally thus far.
Trade Ideas - Monday 30th
First Up
Short Aud/Usd @ 1.06128 - Stop 37 pips , Move stop to B/E 37 pips . TP 1 - 25% - +75 Pips , Tp 2 - 50% - +100 Pips.
Sell NzdUsd @ 0.82119. Stop 35 Pips, move to B/E +35 Pips. TP 1 - 25% - +50 Pips, TP 2 - 50% - +100 Pips
Sell 1/2 unit Mini Nasdaq @ 2443.0. Stop 11.5 Pips, move to B/E 10.75 Pips. TP 1-25% - +21.0 Pips , TP 2 - 50% - 32.0 Pips. Cover on a bounce at the 30 min 333ema.
Short AudCad @ 1.0626 ( missed earlier entry @ 1.0640) - Stop 38 Pips, move to B/E 38 Pips. TP 1 - 75 pips, TP 2 +125 Pips.
Missed -
GbpAud - Long which fired at 1.4785 - Parameters on this trade would have been - Stop 50 Pips, stop to B/E 50 Pips. TP 1 25% +80, TP 2 50 % +160.
Worth a look as well is the AudJpy Daily chart. Doji top and failure at the 200 SMA.
Short Aud/Usd @ 1.06128 - Stop 37 pips , Move stop to B/E 37 pips . TP 1 - 25% - +75 Pips , Tp 2 - 50% - +100 Pips.
Sell NzdUsd @ 0.82119. Stop 35 Pips, move to B/E +35 Pips. TP 1 - 25% - +50 Pips, TP 2 - 50% - +100 Pips
Sell 1/2 unit Mini Nasdaq @ 2443.0. Stop 11.5 Pips, move to B/E 10.75 Pips. TP 1-25% - +21.0 Pips , TP 2 - 50% - 32.0 Pips. Cover on a bounce at the 30 min 333ema.
Short AudCad @ 1.0626 ( missed earlier entry @ 1.0640) - Stop 38 Pips, move to B/E 38 Pips. TP 1 - 75 pips, TP 2 +125 Pips.
Missed -
GbpAud - Long which fired at 1.4785 - Parameters on this trade would have been - Stop 50 Pips, stop to B/E 50 Pips. TP 1 25% +80, TP 2 50 % +160.
Worth a look as well is the AudJpy Daily chart. Doji top and failure at the 200 SMA.
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Whilst I am waiting for signals...
Being wrong is acceptable, but staying wrong is totally unacceptable.
Being wrong isn’t a choice, but staying wrong is.
To play any game successfully, you have to have some skill, an edge.
But beyond that, it is money management.
Good traders manage the downside;
they don’t worry the upside.
Mark Minnervini
Being wrong isn’t a choice, but staying wrong is.
To play any game successfully, you have to have some skill, an edge.
But beyond that, it is money management.
Good traders manage the downside;
they don’t worry the upside.
Mark Minnervini
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
2012 - End of the world or just the Eurozone in its present form ?
After a year of great adversity and change I finally can look back at 2011 and thank God I made it through...
Unfortunately for the Euro-zone it must feel like groundhog day.... we are still faced by the same problems we faced coming into 2010.. Remember back then? Greece was not needing financial aid whatsoever they told us.... Yeh right ! Not much has changed at all.. with possible exception of the markets ability to accept more and more bad news.. and the ratings agencies downgrading any country that can even spell taramousalata..
On the US front its an election year thus, expect data to be on the positive side....
China ? ... I really don't know whether to believe the data they keep pumping out....surely we will see things go sideways and even backwards this year.
War with Iran ? ... Who can afford it these days...
Around the markets we are seeing a continuation of the Risk-On trade today... Stocks are firm, USD a tad weaker across the board today.. will be watching short EurCad and EurAud setups on the 30 and 60 minute charts.
Unfortunately for the Euro-zone it must feel like groundhog day.... we are still faced by the same problems we faced coming into 2010.. Remember back then? Greece was not needing financial aid whatsoever they told us.... Yeh right ! Not much has changed at all.. with possible exception of the markets ability to accept more and more bad news.. and the ratings agencies downgrading any country that can even spell taramousalata..
On the US front its an election year thus, expect data to be on the positive side....
China ? ... I really don't know whether to believe the data they keep pumping out....surely we will see things go sideways and even backwards this year.
War with Iran ? ... Who can afford it these days...
Around the markets we are seeing a continuation of the Risk-On trade today... Stocks are firm, USD a tad weaker across the board today.. will be watching short EurCad and EurAud setups on the 30 and 60 minute charts.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)