Daily Trade Recap – 26^th November, 2014

Headlines:

• Iran won’t ask the Saudis for oil production cuts
• ECB sources: Sovereign QE decision in Q1 2015 largely agreed
• BOJ’s Shirai thinks it will take more than two years to reach 2% inflation target
• ECB looking to Q1 2015 before deciding on QE says Constancio
• BOE’s Haldane says markets don’t see rate hikes until end 2015

Data:

• US core durable goods orders -1.3% vs +1.0% exp
• October 2014 US personal income 0.2% vs 0.4% exp m/m
• Core PCE 0.2% vs 0.2% ex
• October 2014 US pending home sales -1.1% vs 0.5% exp m/m
• US initial jobless claims 313k vs 288k exp
• US Nov Chicago PMI 60.8 vs 63.0 expected
• US Oct new home sales 458K vs 471K exp
• November 2014 University of Michigan consumer sentiment final 88.8 vs 90 exp
• US DOE crude oil inventories +1946K vs +220K expected
• Q3 2014 UK GDP 2nd read 0.7% vs 0.7% exp q/q

Recap:

Quiet trade into the US Thanksgiving holidays despite a raft of weaker US data. USD marginally weaker on the session against the majors as were the US indices until a decent bounce late in the session brings us back to were we started the day.

Another good day for the German Dax30 up 36.25 at 9940.75 as it approaches the June 2014 highs at 10047.50. Nikkei 225 sits quietly at 17320 down 15 on the session with the local Aus200 closing slightly firmer at 5400 after failing to surmount the 100 DMA.

US markets slid early as US data disappointed, consolidating for most of the afternoon until a late day ramp which sees us close positive on the day. S&P500 closes at 2073.38, up 5 handles. Dow30 at 17820, +9 and the Nasdaq100 finishing strongly at 4321.48, higher by 28.25.

Gold continues to be trapped between 1191 and 1203 with the shiny stuff closing lower at 1197.09 despite the weaker USD. Silver likewise trades sideways and closes lower by 16 cents at 16.50.

WTI Crude was pretty much a non event and chopped around in a $1.82 range from the open completely ignoring the much larger than expected inventory number. We go out at 73.50 ahead of tomorrows OPEC announcement.

FX Markets focused on the weaker US data with the USD in reverse for most of the US session. EurUsd closes the day at 1.2505, +27 on the day. EurGbp sits at 0.7918, down 19. EurChf ran into an iceberg at 1.2015... we close at 1.2021.

The Yen pairs traded quietly with UsdJpy at 118.25 down 12 points, EurJpy slightly higher at 147.12, +12 and AudJpy managing a bounce from a look under par at 99.90 to close the day at 100.43, -37.

The commodity block had a mixed day with the Kiwi finding good support below 0.7800 going out at 0.7871, up 45 on the day. The Aussie again closes lower, but well off its 0.8479 lows to close the day at 0.8534. An unremarkable session in the Loonie closing the day at 1.1253, up 5 points from the open.

The Day Ahead:

Today's focus will be on the EU data with the German CPI, Unemployment and EZ Consumer Confidence being the main interest. The outcome of the OPEC meeting will also be closely watched. Australia gets New Home Sales, Private Capital Expenditure data.

Technical Perspective:

USDCHF

Early stages of a Head and Shoulder top under construction?

AUDUSD

A little more to go.....