FX

At this point markets await the happenings in Greece, thus any short term analysis is relatively futile until we see the results and Mondays open.

That being said, Yen charts do present with an interesting scenario and are contrarian to the Risk-On  Inverted SHS formations seen in the Daily ES, YM and NQ Futures charts.
A quick look at the daily charts suggests that we are commencing a final wave 5 lower to test the weekly 23.6 Fib levels at EurJpy 99.32, AudJpy 77.82 and GbpJpy 122.25.

AudUsd on the Daily looks Bullish and is currently sitting at the 38.2 Fib of the 1.0850//0.9580 run. Immediate res. lies at 1.0200/1.0250 zone with the 50 Fib at 1.0217.

UsdCad presents with a bearish SHS pattern with the neckline and 38.2 Fib at 1.0198. The target of the pattern would complete near 0.9950 just shy of the 78.6 Fib at 0.9938.

Cable also looks Bullish with topside resistance at the Fibs - 50% at 1.5784 and 61.8 at 1.5905. Support lies in the 1.5550/1.5600 area.

Crude - CLN2

Bullish RSI divergence present with support at 81.00 favours a bounce to 87.00 Res. 83.38 immediate directional support.

ES and YM

Daily charts show inverted Head and Shoulder patterns in both September Dow and S+P Futures. Dow Futures - YM currently leading the breakout topside. Anyone trading the Sep. Nasdaq should watch 2603 resistance zone.

YM - Neckline broken at 12665, Target 13294. Next resistance at the 61.8 @ 12787.

ES - Neckline sits at 1345. Measured move target for a confirmed formation lies at 1420.50. 61.8 Fib sits overhead at 1354.25.

UpdateStops.ex4 -

Update Stops is a simple and easy to use trade manager EA ( Expert Advisor).
You must place it in your metatrader/experts folder and ensure that you have Expert Advisors function enabled.

Then place the EA onto the chart that you wish to use it on ( exactly as you inset and indicator).
Open the EA and set the parameters you wish to utilise. Stop Loss, Take Profit 1 & 2 in point value and % of profit to take at specified levels, Trailing Stop in points.

Note: Asure that your levels correspond to the currency pairs number of decimal places.. IE if your platform is 5 decimal places on a pair a stop loss of 50 points will need to be entered as 500. 

UpdateStops.ex4 - 4shared.com - online file sharing and storage - download - Richard Lowe

Kiwi

Weekly Kiwi presents with a large SHS formation with a measured move somewhere in the region of 0.6000. The current 1:1 pattern would complete near the 0.7050 zone.

Obviously being weekly charts we need to wait for the weekly close and in the case of the SHS a retest and failure to qualify as a strong pattern that can be traded.

Large Bearish structures in this EurUsd

Whilst not your perfect textbook patterns there are a few to keep your eye on.

Firstly the immediate SHS currently playing out has its target slightly below the previous low at 1.2623.  Charts continue to look very bearish indeed with Papademos giving the Bears a hand after his comments overnight adding real concern to the idea of a Greek Euro exit. Whether his comments where directed at the Greek public to vote unanimously to form a solid government or at the EU/Germany to loosen the noose or both remains to be seen.

However, the comments have indeed forced the market to take a closer look at the technicals for a "If Greece does leave the Eur, where will it go?"

And there they are - the two weekly patterns that Bulls where fearing..

1 - SHS - Current neckline presently at the 1.2570 zone with measured move coming in around 1.0450.

2 - One to One or AB=CD - Copying the down leg from Nov. 2009 A to June 2010 B - a move of 3264 points which would target 1.1675 from the May 2011 high at 1.4939 being point C.

keep an eye on the Aud

Interesting group of charts. Kiwi is still a fraction ahead of the rest.. I will be watching the Aud with the AB=CD or 1 to 1 pattern completion coming in at around 0.9750 for clues of a reversal.

XAU/USD - Spot Gold

Important weekly hammer in Gold and a failure to close under the pivotal 1566 area suggest the immediate low is in. Asian Central Banks were reportedly buying in the 1525 region above the well established channel support at 1505.

Immediate upside target lies at 1610.60 - the Weekly 50 Marabuzo Line with the Daily 55 LWMA above at 1632.

CLM2 - WTI Crude

Again same story as the S+P and Nazzy. 90.39 is the Daily H&S Target with Fibs providing support levels under there to the major support line coming through at 85.00.

NQM2 - E-mini Nasdaq

Exact same conclusion as the ES..

Daily H&S Target at 2449 with previous resistance zone now support 2427.75.

ESM2 - S+P Daily

Looking at the Daily and Weekly charts the situation looks abysmal for the Bulls at this point. Having said that we are approaching an important area of support around the 1284 zone.

1284 - Daily H&S Target
1283.25 - 50 Fib Weekly from the 1147.25 low Nov. 2011
1282.25 Weekly 100 LWMA
1282 - Weekly Resistance now support
Obviously a break below this level would have the market looking at Fibs for the next downside targets.

 Resistance wise only a break and close back above the Weekly 50% Marabuzo Line at 1318.125 would argue that this current sell off has been merely a 4th wave retracement in an ongoing 5 wave structure.

Quick comment from the sidelines..

Whilst I have been busy on other projects I have still been watching these markets with interest albeit from more of a longer term perspective. Weekly patterns identified  in March seem to be playing out quite nicely but have almost reached projected targets.

On the Macro front last nights Philly Fed caught most by surprise. Whilst I believe its only a minor bump in the road on the ongoing US economic recovery it did give the QEIII bunch something to cheer about.  Obviously with a re-election coming up.. a strong stock market and improving economic sentiment will be in the cross-hairs of the current administration and Fed, whether or not they will need to pullout QEIII or not remains to be seen. This writer believes that QEIII will only be enacted should the European scenario spin out of control toward destruction.

And so it is we go back to Europe.... After so long now I am really becoming tired of this situation.. Will Greece leave the Eur? No. Will the Market have another crack at Spain? Yup. Will Germany finally come around to the fact that they are involved in this upto their teeth and have no choice but to open the cheque book? Yup. Lets face it..the Euromob have become masters at can kicking and have it down pat. Austerity measures are of course needed..but in the case of Greece as was the case in Argentina decades earlier...How about we just get rid of the rorts and excesses first.. stabilise the situation and rather than slash and burn.. streamline and find efficiencies. Ohh and introduce the idea of equitable taxation as a common good from the kindergarten level..

From a trading perspective when Fundamentals and Technicals disagree, go with the Technicals.

For those that are watching EurJpy.

Daily Head and Shoulder pattern continues to play out with a target zone in between 98.80/99.50 with the 88.6 Fib at 98.66. Whilst not an Elliotician it does look suspiciously like we are in the 3rd wave which might play well into the idea of a bounce up in 4 then a final run lower toward the previous low at 97.00.

  

EurJpy & GbpJpy

EurJpy -
Target - 109.83. Above 111.01 Pattern is invalid.

GbpJpy -

Target 131.35. Above 1.3255 Pattern is invalid.

Stock Futures - ES, YM & NQ

ESM2 -
Daily AB = CD target 1437.75. Weekly Target 1553.50.
Both Weekly and Daily charts have Bearish Butterfly patterns within the target zone. Whilst market remains in Bull mode top picking remains dangerous but watch reaction at target levels for a retrace. Minimum target for the Bearish Butterfly at 1289.

YMM2 - 
Mini Dow is running behind the other indexes as per usual. Daily Ab = CD Target remains at 13689 with larger Weekly Target at 14260.
Similarly to the ES both Weekly and Daily charts show a Bearish Butterfly pattern. Minimum retrace target for these patterns lies at 12226.

NQM2 -
Unlike the ES & YM the Mini Nasdaq has already completed the AB = CD formation and is continuing higher. Daily Chart clearly has a break out of a pennant, the measured move target lies at 2837.75. Currently we have a Bearish Butterfly, above the 2.618 of BC at 2850 the pattern will be negated . Minimum Target of the retracement lies at 2408.25.

CLK2 - May WTI Crude

Bullish, But.... Just way too much politicking going on with Crude at present to bother trading it as was seen last Friday with the Israel/Iran warmongering rumours flying about - later denied - leading to a 3.00 spike.  

Daily - 
Flag pattern still playing out.  104 - 108 covers the outsides on a Daily closing basis for the next move.

4 Hourly - 
Sideways choppy trading persists. Currently there are two AB = CD patterns visible of which Fridays spike completed at 108.20 - 88.6 Fib, which now suggests a move lower to 104.30/40 support area. 4 Hourly break and close under the 34 Ema would give support to a move lower.

The second AB = CD pattern targets 108.86.

UsdChf

Bearish both Daily and 4 Hourly

Daily - 
AB = CD target at 0.8960 still unfolding. Resistance at the 50 Ema.

4 Hourly  -
Price broke  SHS neckline Friday at 0.9088 and the 61.8 Fib. Measured move comes in at 0.8836. Immediate resistance lies at the 50 Ema and stronger at the 330 Ema. Will monitor the next few 4 hourly candles for a false break.

AudUsd

Overall Bearish although expect a bounce this week.

Daily - 
Failure to close below the Daily 200 Sma gives the Aussie a reprieve from a larger fall.
At this point favour a retracement back to the 50% Fib at 1.0596 after completing at the 200.0 Fib extension.
Immediately resistance is located at 23.6 Fib - 1.04586, 75 Ema - 1.0505, 38.5 Fib - 1.0535.
A failure at 1.0543 - 50 Line would indicate another attempt lower to uptrend support at 1.0300.

4 Hourly  -
Favour further upside retracement after completing a Bullish Butterfly formation toward the 75 Ema at 1.0543.  Support immediately at 1.0422.

UsdJpy

Have the Japanese got enough Yen before end-of-year?

Daily -
Daily chart has turned bearish closing under the 83.325 - 50 Line. Expect one last bounce higher whilst price remains above the 23.6 Fib on a Daily closing basis. Similarly should price close above the immediate resistance at 82.978 expect choppy trading into month end.

4 Hourly -
Bearish Butterfly completed.
Thus far the retrace found support at the 200.0 Fib extension just shy of support at 81.75.  At this point would expect any bounce to target the 50% Fib of this move at 83.02 in line with the Daily chart resistance. A break of 81.75 would immediately target the 222 Ema at 80.92.

Cable - GbpUsd

Overall bullish momentum remains.1.5950/1.5750.

Daily - 
Daily charts inability to hold below the Daily 200 Sma points to another attempt higher. Ideally the upside target of the CD leg will complete at  1.5947 the 88.6 Fib of the BC leg after a 113.0 retrace of AB.


Also visible is a possible SHS pattern where the current price action may be forming the right shoulder. Neckline currently resides at  1.5585.

4 Hourly - 
Bearish Butterfly pattern still in force Max price target is 1.5958. Above invalidates. First target remains 1.5747.   

EurUsd

Overall Bullish with an attempt sooner or later on the 1.3300 resistance. Two patterns worth keeping an eye on.

Update - 4 Hourly chart also has a possible Bullish AB = CD pattern targetting 1.3400. Previous retrace was >50.0% but <61.8 thus reciprocal would target >161.8 but < 200.0% Fib. 

Daily - 
Possible Daily SHS pattern set-up - Currently building the right shoulder which ideally would complete below the 78.6 Fib and 200 Daily SMA.

4 Hourly - 
The 4 horly chart presents with an Inverse SHS. Friday closed on the neckline zone  1.3267/83. Target should the pattern be confirmed would be 1.3530/70. Failure however, would continue to see sideways consolidation in the 1.30//1.33 range.